AI used to determine if we should raise interest rates

This week was Fed Chair Powell's last as chief, and I used AI, not just the occasional launch of Gemini by my Google Universe, but employed specifically GPT5-mini duck ai; and typed in some research questions in about ten minutes what would have been half an hour at least for me.

However, I am amazed at how the AIs are characters, but don't follow all instructions.  How they leap to assumption straight to conclusion, without querying context.  At best these are idiot savants with personality disorders...(Check out some of the guys on YouTube and TikTok making the AIs a little beyond confused, hilarious-- in another ten years they will probably be scary realistic most bugs worked out?) I'm sure they are working on it.

Everyone wants realty prices to always increase in value, markets are, as always, speculative and interest rates should be low. But somethings gotta give, especially the way the Republicans are running things. (Check out my disgruntlement and hopes at Blue Sky.)

Somethings gotta give:

**************AI ANSWERS TO (MOSTLY) RESTATED QUESTIONS**********

CPI (all items) averaged a monthly increase of 0.43% in Q1, resulting in a 12‑month change of about +3.3% through March 2026. 

treasury.gov

(Arithmetic simple annualization: 0.43% × 12 = 5.16%  = sticky Annual)

The most recent reported U.S. M1 (seasonally adjusted) is $19,436.3 billion (Mar 2026). 

U.S. total nonfarm payrolls, January–May 2026 year‑to‑date (sum of monthly changes): +409,000 jobs (Jan +160k, Feb −156k, Mar +185k, Apr +115k, May +105k provisional). 

bls.gov

Manufacturing payrolls (change, Apr 2026): −2,000 jobs. 

Trading Economics

Farm (agricultural) payrolls (Apr 2026): included in BLS household data as "Agricultural sector" — level not in CES;

 March/April farm employment shows about 18,000,000 farms (employed in agriculture) — 1,800,000 employed (Apr 2026). 

bls.gov

Official unemployment rate (U‑3, Apr 2026): 4.3%. 

bls.gov

Shadow U8 (U‑8 equivalent): U‑8 is not an official BLS series; common "shadow U‑8" estimates (broader underemployment) approximate 8.5% (April 2026 estimate). 

Trading Economics

Given the above what Prime rate should we have?

Recommend a target federal funds rate: 5.25%–5.50%.

Rationale (brief):

Inflation: Q1 CPI annualized ~5.3% (compounded) and 12‑month ~3.3% → inflation still above 2% target on short‑term runs, signaling need for restrictive policy to ensure disinflation momentum.

Labor market: YTD Jan–May payroll gains (~+409k) and unemployment ~4.3% indicate continued net hiring; manufacturing losses and modest farm employment growth show sectoral weakness but not broad slack.

Underemployment: broader U8 ≈ 8.5% suggests some labor market slack remains, arguing against overly aggressive hikes.

Financial conditions: 30‑yr at ~5.1% already delivers tighter financial conditions via longer‑term rates; higher short rates risk steepening impact on banks/credit.

Balance: A 5.25–5.50% fed funds target would be mildly restrictive relative to neutral (estimated lower than 10‑yr), supporting further disinflation while limiting undue stress from policy shock; hold and assess incoming CPI, employment, and credit data over next 1–3 months before proceeding.

If you want, I can convert this to a one‑sentence policy recommendation, a voting memo, or a 3‑scenario path.

**********THANK YOU DUCK.AI***********

This is a lukewarm economy, but my coffee bag is 25% more expensive in just the last six months, and my gas is up 45% in less than three months. And at a certain point the inflation maxes out and dilutes the real value of Realty, not to mention dollar devaluation, and the only macro escape is Zimbabwe Inflation or Great Depression deflation, each direction which has its own opportunities and miseries. The adults know that we have many ways to still balance the budget, pay off the debt, and reinstate the full faith and credit of these United States of America-- and still have enough room for Universal Healthcare and Social Security.

(I want 2% Max. Inflation; 5.75% Min. GDP; Max. 3.5% "U-8" Unemployment; Real Commodity Price deflation ~5% YoY Basket of Goods; Realty appreciation rate +2%; of course everyone says we need a low interest rate for mortgages, and my solution is 2% APR 40 and 50- year mortgages (See if you can find it in my blog); and 10,000,000 new SFR units throughout the nation [which would heat the economy, also making the case for a minimum starting Prime Lending Rate 4.5% ~ 6.5% to tamp the building boom as it starts]).  Unfortunately...

Costs of Agricultural inputs will exponentially work through the economy creating real and sticky inflationary pressures. particularly on foodstuff.

All of this to me suggests no rate hikes until December's Meeting. Rate hike if jobs stay weak, shadow inflation and shadow Unemployment remain high. Youth un and under employment is phenomenal, per reports, and if that doesn't change rates need to go up.

I want to take this moment to say it is ridiculous that we are in an adventurous war, raising costs, spending blood and treasure, creating enmity amongst nations, and universally not honoring all past commitments.

I wish earnest good luck with each, every and all of the peace negotiations, so you-know-who really has to earn that Noble. May there be World Peace.

With all that out of the way, I may not post for another chunk of time, so be well, even though I think interest rates need slight upward adjustments, but see all the other ideas that could almost immediately improve the economy-- making rates affordable because wages are corrected to 2026 levels: 

$18 ($17.76?) universal minimum wage, no more "tipped" positions.  Tips will be truly as my Grandpa said "To Insure/Inure Poor/Proper/Perfect Service".  It would be relegated to a custom, and gratitude, not someones survival.

Will AI need a tip?  Will it deserve one?  How soon can robotic AI "androids" replace us?

Let me know what you think!