Before we address the reasons Mr. Bernie Sanders, a
self-described democratic socialist who has been in Congress for years as an
Independent and caucused with Democrats, could win The Electoral College (as
well as maybe even over 53% of the popular vote) in a General Election, let us
start by comparing him to his very real rival for nomination; it is sort of
hers to lose, as she has sort of begun to do; Hilary Clinton.
Foreign Policy is considered a big part of how the former
Lawyer, Senator and Secretary of State via Pennsylvania, Little Rock, and New
York could beat the former Mayor, Congressman, and current Senator from Vermont
with a proven track record of say what you mean, and do what you say.
Further, some of the ideas about Sec. Clinton (her
actual highest rank in service to the American people) revolve around that
she’s the ‘realist.’
Except, this supposed argument of foreign policy
realism, hinges upon 20th century political dialogues about
communism and the USSR?
I argue, as an Economist, that any Federal Economic
Policy is the foundation upon which both Foreign and Domestic Policy rest.
And we have been a mixed capitalist system (meaning
a socialist-capitalist democracy) since The Great Depression (1932).
Sanders freely works with these truths: Plus, progressive, underserved, and younger
voters sense or know these operational truths of economics; therefore, as we
enter four score years, since we began guaranteeing our citizens as a national
government, Bernie is the actual realist in the race from
strictly economic principles, but I digress.
I am unsure that 99%-ers, Millennials, Social
Liberals, Progressives, or Economic realists will agree with my reasoning, in
part or whole, yet I guess we may all agree on the bottom line... a better
future for our grandchildren and their grandchildren— thinking Seven
Generations.
So, here’s my case for what will differentiate Sen.
Sanders from his rivals through to November:
WARFARE
On this point, almost anyone who doesn’t respond
“bomb them (whoever the enemy is) back to the stone age,” as the best answer to
any question of foreign threat to our beloved, misunderstood, and often
misguided United States of America; the rest of us need to seriously take a
moment to review the clarity and undaunted-ness the Senior Senator has had when
it actually counted most to committing American blood, treasure, and resources,
especially once we became the unilateral superpower.
On the disastrous move by G. W. Bush, The Younger,
to go to War in Iraq on false and manufactured intelligence in 2004, Sanders
was one of very few, and even fewer of those still serving in Congress, to have
seen through the folly in the moment with foresight, and voted ‘No.’ Clinton voted
with the establishment in that same vote.
Besides this, he is the Chair of the Veteran’s
Affairs Committee, so Sanders knows the true ongoing costs of making a
disastrous decision to go to war.
Clinton voted for endless Emergency Powers, for
adventurous wars, and has a record from her time as head of the State
Department that isn’t universally admired, if not respected— Sec. Kerry has
gone much further to accomplish more substantive results by comparison within
and on behalf of the same Administration.
Thus, even if you disagree with this one of the
three points, finding yourself more of a hawkish-dove, than a dovish-hawk,
continue reading as to why Sanders can and should prevail against all his
rivals in both contests.
WELFARE
Republicans call this “Entitlement Reform,” but what
they typically mean is ‘controlling’ entitlements, but most importantly to the
actual conservative constituency, in order to manage (or cut) associated
costs.
Republicans continue calls for a re-run straight
from the 1980’s of tax-cuts for the 1%, who are already enjoying the best tax
benefits, ever, that only translate to eventually pissing off poor, minority,
and elderly groups, by capping or eliminating benefits they rely upon to live
in exchange for having helped build our nation, but also should be a wholesale
alarm to our Veterans and retired civil servicepersons.
Sanders proposes to afford these programs
reinstating what is called Progressive Taxation (lower taxation rates for the
poor, and greater taxation rates for the rich), and for the most part was the
tradition in our nation, until Ronald Reagan began spending recklessly on the
US credit card and playing with Trickle Down Economics, permanent national
treasury deficits, and no real wage (adjusted for inflation) increases for the
bottom two-thirds of the nation ever since.
George H. W. Bush, The Elder, observed correctly,
before he lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980 to become elevated to Vice President
(after having run the CIA for years), that this solutions set was “Voodoo
Economics.” Ad naseum argumentum
(arguments that repeat over and over insistently) do not prove right this
miserable failure.
Bush the Elder, eventually lost his re-election,
since everything he had learned in life, told him he needed to raise taxes on
the wealthy, like Reagan did too, because the safety netting for Americans had
begun it’s own demolition once Reagan Administration and Republican lawmaking
efforts got rolling (and then rolled from the S&L Scandal before ending up
into the ditch with the Bank Bailouts— see Neil Bush).
Whatever you call this Economic Policy, it is now a
proven failed economic, governing, and fiscal model, in ointments and puddings
found around the world since 2008, and we have begun reinstating those safety
nets— the enthusiasm across ‘voting blocks,’ indicate Sanders tracks with this
trend.
Voters of all stripes, ranks and files must think to
not only vote for the children yet to be born, but those who have lost their
way in this life, yet still live. Back
when PTSD was called shell shock,
this was termed Welfare of the State by the people for the people.
We all want good fiscal policy, and budgetary
prudence... the difference— Bernie Sanders also promises to expand Social
Security and Veteran Benefits; create Universal Education and National Health
Insurance; but also continue the request, to keep the promise written at the
foot of The Statue of Liberty, that asks for those “tired, poor, and masses
yearning to be free.”
There is no request or shown preference at Lady
Liberty’s feet for only those people with advanced degrees on Work Visas,
exclusion of opportunities for the lower or middle classes, nor does it say “No
Mexicans, or Muslims.”
Aside from that, anyone concerned with Native American
Rights, let alone the poor (or the 99%), serious about casting a vote this year
for any establishment candidate could
only seriously consider the
Democratic Party.
Otherwise, there will be made available
third-party protest (each only able to garner under 1%) votes that, once again,
won’t be noticed by The Establishment— trust me, like Mr. Sanders, I am not a
Democrat, either.
Although his Democratic Establishment rival may
again be somewhat analogous to this Democratic Socialist, my truth: Sanders, I
feel is someone who would probably agree with my more libertarian advocacy for
a simple methodology of expansion for the ACA to ‘not discriminate upon age.’
Unlike the Republicans who seem proud to have earned their mantle of
“Do-Nothing-Republicans” by voting to repeal ACA 62 times, WITHOUT
COUNTER-OFFER, here is at least my idea:
This could happen any day of the week should any
relevant class in California decide to sue the State exchange and Medicaid
under the Unruh Act, that bans discrimination by age. This amendment this would most probably open
the door to reform critical health insurance coverage (Medicaid and Medicare)
to include any citizen who needed health care, nationally.
This “available model” is favorable to
a mandatory model, or even Single-payor, because it is still allowing for
self-insurers, and those who prefer an esoteric insurance device to act as a
market tamp on pricing by offering capital efficiencies in terms of (much
lesser degree direct and) indirect competition.
But the idea of sending in any candidate, who
may be willing to take another thirty years dancing with the powers-that-be to
get the citizens some version of National Healthcare whilst the nation suffers;
let alone those (Republicans) not willing to admit to a Health Crisis, Poverty
Issues, nor Climate Change; simply beggars belief.
I think I will chance it with the guy, Sanders, who
once again seems to be facing the actual reality of our geo-political
and economic situations:
My macroeconomic fiscal conservative recap in favor
of Universal Healthcare;
Without some version of universal coverage in health
insurance, it is an unfair competitive advantage to almost every one of our
foreign trading partners (who mostly have some form of national state health
insurance) that acts as an inverse tariff
against our national exports and imports, because our manufacturers and
business owners do not have comparable benefit(s).
Meaning that any good, product or
service (imported or exported) includes in its measured value in currency terms
the subsidized healthcare costs of our competitors’ workers and citizens, thus
allowing our trading partners to attract and retain higher quality labor, as
well as creating a “reverse hidden taxation to trade,” or inverse tariff.
In other words, when we don’t have a
comparable benefit to any national competitor, then this acts in favor of
foreign competition as hidden cost of goods per export, simultaneous to hidden
subsidy (in favor of exporting nation) per import.
This is economically true of most state
social netting programs that reduce costs and burdens to business. Ending this incongruity, and any other social
disadvantages to workforce, manufacturers, exporters, and importers, will benefit
Corporate America for generations to come.
When any Republican and any Democrat are held up to
be chosen by our vet, disabled, and/or elderly voters around the nation as to which candidate for the POTUS will
really be backstopping and improving Healthcare, Social Security, and VA Benefits—
The retired citizen with a prospect of living to past age one-hundred with
advances in modern medicine, the infirm citizen with a permanent disability,
disease, ailment and/or deformity, but also anyone who has served this nation—
voters should rightly recoil in horror at the massive cuts to benefits
being proposed by that Republican field writ large.
Winning Republican will have to at best modify
Entitlement Reform plans, or at least hedge their speech (i.e. lie) on the
stump, if they have even made any policy notes known, to then bestill this vast
constituencyship, which seems particularly ebullient this year. Again any Democrat will probably win.
WEEDFAIR
It is not ‘marijuana,’ it is not ‘weed,’ rather it
is the cannabis species in all its forms: industrial, commercial, and
medicinal.
Every Republican has espoused doubling down on
Ronald Reagan’s failed, outmoded, and unpopular “war” seeking to repeal
these State initiatives by the people and their representative governments!
This is the key distinction for the Democratic
nominees. Although, with hedging
language, Mrs. Clinton somehow shows up as a 1990’s Republican talking about
‘states rights,’ on this issue; Sanders can make, and often shows, if not
alludes to, the connection; that the ill-conceived adventure called “War on
Drugs,” Libertarian and Reganite Ron Paul would agree, has been an escapade,
which the taxpaying citizenry has answered back these thirty years later with,
‘black lives matter,’ as the number one civil rights issue facing our nation
today.
Assuming we also include any people of color within
that sentiment, and add any citizen in any disadvantaged class: that insane
effort by the US Government against it’s own people must finally come to a complete
end.
It didn’t work with alcohol: without identifying and
addressing the real and underlying social issues belying the symptomologies and
behaviors (let alone citizen violations against arbitrary and capricious
lawmaking, policy, and now case-precedent that must be overturned or outlawed,
itself) sought to be modified, or contained, on such complex social issues; it
then fails the actual cause of government to protect and defend its citizens in
a reasonable free state of liberty, as ratified and identified by our founders,
who all used industrial hemp, at a minimum.
Further, when incarceration is the primary remedy
provided by the opposite party (again, the proven poor solution set since the
Drug War began last century under the Reagan Administration), there will be
continued disenfranchisement of those felons, disadvantaged, and forgotten
citizens who have given up on our cynical system— non-voters. Ending the failed Drug War will end
disenfranchisement of citizens from their system.
Voters have Thanksgiving Dinners with those
non-voting folks. And anyone not
thinking of being a voter this time, please plan to vote, if you still have the
right, and see what happens!
Repealing the now-proven inefficient
prohibition of cannabis will save trillions of dollars across the board!!
It will redirect vital policing
mechanisms back to the borders, counter-terror, and actual crimes against
policy of State— where they belong. And,
by the way, it will pay for itself, generate billions in taxes annually, and
create new jobs.
However, Free Hemp is more importantly the
number one Law and Order issue for 2016, in part because by redirecting the
resources of state to enforce policy, as we have begun to do in Colorado, then,
besides fiscal prudence, it should also expedite the removing of those Federal
Emergency Powers (yes, we are still under a State of Emergency) to ideally
reinstate the concepts of law derived from the Magna Carta and it’s associated
democratic principalia connected to habeas corpus.
WHY SANDERS CAN WIN
Weed States aka
The Fab Four: CO, WA, AK, OR, and sort of the District of Colombia, which
isn’t actually a State, but does vote. No
one in these states is
going to consciously ratify any
politician explaining why their States Rights will be invalidated and
revoked by the Federal Government, should we choose to vote for them to
administer the Executive Offices of the USA.
23 Medicinal States; 15 CBD Only States; 2 pending Medicinal
States.
This represents 44 States (All Native Nations are free to
grow, manufacture and sell cannabis products; probably most of our Commonwealth
Members will agree; and our Fab Four, and [again] DC) accepting, honoring and
commercializing Hemp in 2016!
(I added Florida, because last year an Initiative to become
the fifth state to fully legalize cannabis was passed by the voters at a
phenomenal 58%, but didn’t meet the sixty percent ‘super-majority’ threshold to
become amended into the State Constitution.
They are going for it again this year!)
44/50!!
Consistently, our US Population supports
legalization of cannabis by a majority since 2002, because it is so very common
sense— those who don’t, mostly because they were indoctrinated to believe
cannabis to be worse than opium, if you can imagine, are getting older and
passing away.
Support really only continues to grow, as the most
important plant in the human pantheon comes back online, and myths become
demystified.
And States citizens sincerely voting in 2016 to
become #5 (and beyond) to legalize it: Nevada, California, Maine, Arizona,
Connecticut, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Maryland,
Massachusetts, New York, and Missouri; all have activated their grass-root
bases to follow the Weed States into the actual future— just like climate change, it also does exist!
So, this sea change favors a Progressive crowd to be
mobilized at the base in 2016.
Then, the ACA States where a successful state health
insurance exchange system has begun to heal millions of Americans, including
myself, is set up: CO, HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, IA, MS, KY, MD, NY, VT, MA,
RI, and CT.
I would tell 538.com and any other prognosticators,
just put these states into Any Democrat’s column, because the countless stories
of relief, respite, and hospice cannot be told considering the millions of
improvements we are seeing every day to the actual health of our
country. This will begin to show up as
lagging economic statistics, as more of our people continue get the help they
need.
If any of those states didn’t break
Democratic, then I wouldn’t consider that any final verdict upon the ACA—
itself mostly the 1990’s Republican solution set, their counter-offers, after
the failed Hilary-care effort, which she cashed-in for the CHP (more or less
the current national children’s health insurance program, to her credit),
currently referred to as Obamacare.
Because this is so massive and complex
of an issue, results are so preliminary, then it is no wonder the Do-nothing
Republicans voted to repeal this important social netting— their own ‘90’s
policy counter-offers— now 62 times, offering no real new solutions, as of
February 2, 2016— THEY JUST DON’T GET IT!
Even if the ACA goes unchanged, only
managed, it will realize trillions of dollars in long-term savings to the Federal
Government, as is, while continuing to heal America.
Every Republican wants to end available
health care solutions without any real counter-offer, thus no true Republican
will be preferred by those citizens experiencing positive ACA results— Americans
are just not buying it, even though there do exist also many stories about
frustration with implementation.
To guess, there is political inefficiency,
disagreement, and/or disorganization that could account for the 18 exchanges
that have defaulted to the Federal Program, as they are mostly “red
states.”
Thus, this may indicate a potential anti-Obama trend
in some of the Federal Exchange states.
(I did not weight those states in the neither/nor
zone still developing their exchange solutions.)
However, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, and maybe
Louisiana and Arizona are the only of these eighteen that could be mitigated by
other (weed, jobs, etc.) factors, issues and turnouts to prefer Any Democrat.
Therefore, assuming that voters find Mr. Sanders the
more trusted, experienced, pragmatic choices for the Democratic primary;
assuming my hypotheses about ACA and Free Hemp are more or less correct; then I
expect a final General Election map (Sanders-v-Any Republican) to appear
something like this:
I am
endorsing Bernard Sanders of Vermont for President in 2016.
Finally:
Please, let us not act like we are the oldest modern democracy by having the
most anemic voter turnouts. Even if you
do not agree in part or whole with this argument, as citizens let us
demonstrate our vigor of old age; please, make sure to vote in November!
Happy
President’s Day!
kilv