Aftergloworm Turning

One week since a huge landslide in Presidential politics for the historic figure Mr. Obama.

I imagine, although I've been busy, like most people, cobbling together the means to afford the predicament of this economic situation, the MSM has been focusing on several other items not related to presidential politics, or at least that is what I would hope will be happening.

Not to say that I dont appreciate a good honeymoon... thats all fine, for christsake the "O" Administration doesnt get into power for another 70 days, and it would be too bad if after his first month the desperately unimaginative and incurious Media are already "looking back to the 'first' 100 days."

That said, the fourth estate has been an overwhelming disappointment during the "W" administration. I think when some anchors got the Katrina "scoop," in other words it wasnt being covered or handled properly (a) some of the real news hounds smelled a story, but alas, I am growing cynical, I also think that some of the corporate execs felt there may have been liability in under reporting (or to be accurate in my guess, 'that the disinformation of the government around events and items related to the catastrophe in LA and secondarily in MS could subject that reporting organization to liability.' But of course that didnt or wouldnt bother Fox as a quasi-offical bully pulpit for the W admin.), therefore they put boots on the ground to investigate-- and began to WAKE UP.

If every MSM vendor is serving up the exact same pile of tripe in varying portions and from minutely differing vantages to form slightly different piles of the same garbage, then we have truly learned nothing in the past eight years.

How cool would it be (a la Woodward and Berstein) to actually scoop the Congressional Investigations? Go ahead reporters in waiting, cub reporters, and various CSI/Inspector Clouseau/Mrs. Marple wannabes... I would estimate there are literally dozens (if not thousands) of reports to be filed that discover real evidence of how foul the government and its administration has been and how we have been led astray. All of them potentially original, a potential scoop, and vitally important to the restoration of communication, democracy, and law and order in our society.

That is the duty of the Fourth Estate. Not to burnish the non-sequitur utterances of incompetents, nor to buy into the lies without introspection or vigorous discussion and examination. Sure there will be mistakes, but rather an honest mistake done for duty and country, than as a tool of the state, say I.

Lets explore the issues... Going into the meta of number of mortgages in default is fascinating for economists, chartists, and financial students like me... But how many reports of hardship, heartache, and wrongdoing can be found within these types of numbers? Countless.

The "horse race" type reporting was cheap, easy, and allowed the execs, reporters, and much of their field staff to drive small distances (with apologies to those who actually rode tirelessly with the campaigns) and appear to be offering comprehensive coverage of "what is happening in America."

Thank Gawd the two year Presidential Campaign is now finally over, and not to diminish from (oh theres another ten thousand stories) all the personal emblematic meaning Americans have from this historic result, but lets start ACTUALLY reporting on the Actual events from actual places on this earth in order to more clearly see how far we have been led astray-- and how much ground our society and the world need to make up for the unmitigated disaster of these last eight years!

Esoteric Critique for McCain reserved for after the Campaign (Part 2)

MESSAGE, Message, and message....

To illuminate my next critique, I will first choose the thing that Obama did (amongst other things [but in this case from strictly a marketing point of view]) oh so very right: He picked a brand identity and stuck with it.



If memory (yes, I am not googling it or whatever) serves me, then I believe he had the trademark blue "O" with the red stripes of the American flag as hills (or waves) more or less at his announcement in Springfield. I also believe it was fairly early on (before Iowa) wherein he used the one word slogan "Change." He stuck by those now famous messages throughout his effort.

Hilary gave him as stiff a challenge as she could (and still hope for a personal political future aside from her husbands shadow), and barely lost in her efforts to peel away at the brand of a cool intellectual who stood firmly for change and chose most words carefully most of the time.

She did throw the kitchen sink at him. But she also tried (again from memory only) the better part of half a dozen slogans, and dozens of various straw man sticking points with varying degrees of truth buried within the message-- all designed to run against Obama.

Last mention of Obama here, and then onto McCain, Obama (and his exploratory committee) seemed to calibrate the message (brand identity+slogan+platform) squarely against ALL COMERS, not just his next nearest competition.

McCain's team in March clearly failed to assess that (A) Obama's message was fairly consistent throughout a grueling Democratic primary, and (B) his Brand and Identity were fairly unshakable. That would seem to imply that (1) In order to appear more unshakable, unflappable, AND experienced a granite bedrock and marble foundation of a message needed to be developed during that down time from March to June, and (2) It was going to be an all out effort which required coordination and harmonization at every level-- especially the ground.

So, lets focus just on McCain: identity = servant to the nation, war hero, and maverick; slogan and platform... well that never quite got straightened out by the "Straight Talk Express."

If he was going to continue riding around in the STE, then a heavy dose of Straight Talk would have really been helpful. I mean how high would his polling numbers have shot up if he had said, "I know President Bush has been unpopular, hey personally I think he's even a bit of a Jerk, but in order to win these wars you have to make some unpopular decisions."

What part of that statement could the Dems have disagreed with? You then refocus on the messy details of how to win wars.

My Proviso here is that I am assuming the Pubs had some sort of strategy (other than continuing to prolong the war and siphon tax dollars to no bid contracted cronies for shoddy work and non-accountability), but if I am wrong then moreover they deserved to lose!

On the Economy (and I already suggested that Romney should have been the VP... there would have been a much more contentious battle in the West, Rust Belt, and to a lesser degree New England), if he were to have said, "I know there are some people struggling, but its the job of the government to give a hand-up-- not a hand out!"

Again, thats an oldy but a moldy from the Reagan playbook Maverick 2000 McCain would agree with, but somewhere the message was coopted to please the Rovian Sith Hordes (a.k.a. NeoCons) and so any talk of assistance to anyone (used here to include the "personhood" of corporations) not worth billions was taboo.

On Immigration, "My friends, I could prattle on about my long record on immigration and human rights, but lets get one thing straight-- We need to fix this broken down Immigration and border system."

Vague enough to not completely freak out the borders only crowd, but tongue firmly in cheek enough to give the wink to his true base of Pro-Life Hispanics who have some concerns for workers rights, and deep fear for some of the more draconian suggestions posited by the NeoCons.

Finally, although this may not be entirely "message," but it fits into the category of "Non-verbal." When you go into your convention a landslide victor, your party needs to conform its platform to your overarching gameplan and strategy.

That most certainly didnt happen.

No, as became clear on September 15th, McCain surrounded himself with people who could tolerate his bullshit, and (probably) feared him enough to not be able to simply point out his errors or fallacies. Someone had approved a script saying "The fundamentals of the economy are strong," when most economists worth their salt were at least tipping their hand that the "R" word was around the corner if not nearer. What on Gawds green monster sign were they thinking?

Here are some great stats about how to measure Recession, and why I would never have ever approved of that message (if McSame was my boy), as we have technically been in Recession for years.

He then panicked, "suspended" his campaign (even though in fact there were commercials, surrogates, and Palin romping around), scuttled a deal brokered in Congress with the President, and then resumed his campaign only to vote FOR the bailout. Think "My Pet Goat," on Viagra, uppers, and Scotch....

I have to believe that the absolute shit sandwich (all of those many many served to him 'special order' over the years) that McCain was served as part of the 2000 campaign and its subsequent events (including the absolutely dishonorable attack against fellow Vietnam Hero Kerry) had (as they say in Poker) put on Tilt a personality and temperament which could really not afford to be on Tilt.

So what possible message could you construct with all of those facts?

Suggestion for the trial balloon meeting that should have been on or around March 25th, 2008;

It takes a nation of millions to hold us back.

Esoteric Critique for McCain reserved for after the Campaign (Part 1)

Standing next to Palin (on her way up the popularity Elevator, that also went down with unfortuitous timing for the campaigns purposes), especially at the beginning, he reminded me of Pappy O'Daniel in O Brother Where Art Thou in the finale;



I mean, that scene doesnt show it, but after this excerpt when Pappy gets on stage he literally is warming his hands by the warmth of the Soggy Bottom Boy's popularity and fanfare... and that is exactly what McCain did wrong from an image point of view-- he looked desperate (and it seemed that he believed the plain and handsome Governor of Alaska was his saving grace).

Recall the scene towards the very beginning when O'Daniel's team discusses the opposition, and the conclusion was, "you cant get Reform if you are the incumbent candidate." (if I recalled the quote correctly.)

Whoever was in control of the imagery of the Straight Talk Express should have been fired after The Green Monster, and I think may even have been-- that said the young and to some attractive Governor only served to further demonstrate the age and wounds of the veteran Senator.

Monday Morning Quarterbacking for the Losing Team(s)

If I am Lombardi, in the halftime lockerroom (where I left off on August 1st), and speaking with my losing team that just had enough time on the clock to throw two Hail Mary's, and the first one was intercepted (where upon the opposite side {Dems}) then took a knee to run out the clock (twice because we did have one time out remaining when we hurled the ball to the two yardline) sending us into that lockerroom where we still had a real chance, then my speech would have gone something like this:

Ladies and Gentlemen, and the Rovian Sith Hordes, we are down, but not out by any means.

First, we have to decide are we a running game offense (ergo true Mavericks with a smash mouth offense), or a finesse team (ergo traditional divide and conquer partisan and identity politics), because at this point I am unsure if we can afford to do both.

The conventions are around the corner, and we have to make a smart pick for Veep... If we go smashmouth, true grit, honesty, leadership and the ability to speak our centrist truth to power I say lets get someone like Lieberman (how's his knee?) in there to lend true across the aisle credibility, an appeal to moderates and many conservatives, yet an ability to bark at the opposition on their terms. That would show 'em.

However, as confusing as that would be to the opponents, run play football is a hard way to have to catch up... lets get a guy who raised our game, kept us on our feet, and still has enough credibility on things we are weak in (like Economics) to make plays that pick apart defense... Romney.

Okay so heres the plan;

After the nomination, Romney you work the North West starting in every town in Utah in an ever expanding circular motion until you meet McCain at the end of his Viva la South tour (which starts in Florida, covers all of Dixie and then some, and meet up in Arizona). After Arizona for about a week we will reassess on where you are weakest, and let you do some joint appearances to rally huge crowds... after all we dont want you guys appearing at the same place all the time {oops}.

That said, a Veep Pick victory does not make...

Our key problem here has been message. We are trying to beat them at their game, trying to coopt that "Change" mantle. That doesnt work when weve been in Washington for over two decades and in power for a majority of that time.

Mmmm... lets see, oh yeah, our opponent is weak in experience. Rather than challenge (or appear to challenge) his patriotism, heritage, beliefs, or even to a lesser extent his philosophy (because lets get real our parties are still more or less two different sides of the same coin), lets instead hammer out a simple bumper sticker slogan (or two) that gets to the core....

Okay coach what do we have? (-offensive coordinator speaks-)

Great. Yeah, they have one word, so let us choose one word: Stability.

That will be all we need to do to reassure our conservative base who is a little squirrley that Romney didnt win, play neutral enough with moderates and independents, and if anything weird happens in the world, like God forbid a political crisis or economic crisis {puke}, we can be seen as above the fray in our stable bunker and hold tight to our consistent brand identity of "Stability." Also this wont offend the remaining two-hundred thousand people who believe in the current administration, yet allow us to make critiques freely of that administration should it handle such challenges poorly (but that hasnt happened, nor could it happen again {couldn't it?}).

Finally, defense (money and organization).

Team we need to really step it up. They have us on money, but organizationally, once we get our coalition with a bee in its bonnet-- we cant be beat!

It also strikes me that instead of rallying a get out the vote drive in only the last 72 hours may not be enough, so lets just start all our ground game stuff right on the heels of our convention.

All right, go out there and win one for the Gipper... no not George Gipp!

...of course I surely did not want this to become a competitive contest.

Another Moment in Time

At the end of the film by John Cromwell, entitled Abe Lincoln in Illinois, Raymond Massey, whose portrayal of Lincoln is considered one of the most accurate by people who had actually seen the man himself, quotes the truism sought by the Asian Emperor to apply to all things at all occasions, and he somberly looks into the camera and says, "And this too shall pass."

That scene portrayed outside (a set of the) same Illinois State house that I watched (as did many other political junkies) President-elect begin his improbable campaign, resonates as a comparable historical moment in time. And much like that relatively less than recorded moment in time (meaning fewer digital devices, and fewer people, surely) my age and wisdom informs me that like all else, as remarkable as this evening and the symbology of what it signifies and represents to not just American people, or for that matter those American people who are descendant from the slaves who toiled to build our nascent nation, "this too shall pass."

Obama is just a man; he is a lawyer; he is a politician; he is a Democrat; and he has even admitted he's not perfect.

That said, I am either so absolutely revolted by the current administration's policies, lack of competency, and our failed economic Trickle Down Theories, or I am actually still young enough of a man to permit myself to believe that the American people may have selected enough of a scholar, diplomat, and leader that they are willing to actually work very hard for in order to pull our collective American assess out from the fire without landing into the frying pan to say, "but its nice to have seen and been with."

(I know its poor form to end on a preposition, but I actually enjoy imagining my English teachers spinning in their beds, graves, or crypts from which they roust in order to suckle the blood from English students-- that said I will be offering some scathing commentary on our Economic mess in the near future.)

The King is Dead, God Save the King!

(P.S. I tried finding the exact scene from the movie, but alas, only found a 1940's Hollywood Martial Arts display)

Playing the "Hail Mary," for the Halftime Scoreboard

John McCain has stepped up some very negative imagery. No, not his stumbles, goofs, and foot-in-mouth whereby he shoots himself in the foot to barely escape suicide.... He is on the offense throwing some long bombs to the end zone, even though his team is down by just two touchdowns and its only a minute before half time.

The crowd likes the near misses, the forty yard sprint dashes, the stunt plays... but why open this up now?

Dont the Pubs usually keep their powder dry until the last quarter?

My theories:

(1) McCain is officially desperate. The Obama obsession in the MSM is like a shiny object flying in the sky. Even though its scary, they aren't sure what the UFO is, it is fascinating. Never mind that something like 70% of the coverage (of which he probably gets only 10 ~ 20% more coverage than McCain, and that McCain's coverage is about half positive/half negative) can be interpreted as neutral or even negative... kinda like, "will the aliens eat us when they land?" Or as McCain recently goofed his attempt to describe the example of loaded or begging question, 'when did you stop beating your wife?' In Obama's case there is a litany of viral and implied begging questions such as "why is he not a Muslim?" (For point of reference, not one word in the MSM about McCains free pass on his declaration on being a "Baptist.")

(2) McCain finally hired someone who gets the power of the new media, albeit a rather sinister disciple of Rove, or some other Sith Lord. By spending a million dollars on the production and airing of a local/regional yet ludicrous advertisement (not to be confused with a lude interlude by Ludacris on Obama's behalf), and then having the MSM pick up the loaded question, for instance "why isn't Obama like Brittany and Paris?" The ad dollar is stretched out very well.

As you can tell my cynicism and pure observation (intention is as intention does) informs me that it is more of the latter that has the QB for McCain's team airing out long bombs to the endzone in hopes of tiring out the backfield defense. But there are some problems with this strategy as well.

(a) McCain prima facae does indeed look desperate. As much as he has temporarily short circuited the dialogue betwixt the factions by begging the question, his questions are clearly inherent fallacies: Obama rejects my superficial Gas Tax Holiday, Tax Prices are rising, therefore Obama is responsible for gas prices; Obama is a celebrity, many celebrities today are vacant mental space, therefore there is something unsubstantial about Obama; and now we have Obama speaks with inspirational rhetoric, the bible is filled with inspirational rhetoric, therefore Obama thinks he is a biblical figure. These are all undistributed middle fallacies, with a touch of the ole straw man for good luck.

As you can see, McCain is fond of this illogic, and even made a DOUBLE UNDISTRIBUTED MIDDLE FALLACY; A. (Right wing) elite professors inhabit Hyde Park. B. Obama lives in Hyde Park. C. Obama is a Liberal Senator. Therefore, these (A) Elite are (C) Liberals, and (B) Obama is (A) Elite. Obama may be a Liberal who lives amongst Elitists, but that does not prove him an Elite. Also, Just because these (Right Wing) Elitists live in the same neighborhood as a Liberal Senator does not make them "liberal."

From a strictly logical point of view it seems McCain has conceded the high ground to Obama in terms of Logic.

(b) America loves violence and aggression. Problem is that you better believe it would be very very very easy to make a goofy old man highlight reel of McCain (and its pretty much been out there since March). The difference is that most of that anti-McCain stuff has been through surrogates. What is shocking that McCain would go so schoolyard dirty so very early. It can very easily come back to haunt him with an equal and parallel violence, only closer to election day.

(c) An expansion of that last point, if the debates were going to be a tough slog for McCain before, he now will have to stand there, grimmace, and repeat the lines from the commercials which are (i) illogical, (ii) lame, and (iii) will have been thoroughly hashed out by the time of the actual debate.

I believe the Pubs have fumbled in the greater context.

They have surrendered the high ground, and now accuse Obama of playing the race card to drag him down.

They have lost the battle of logic and persuasion by logical means, so they are now at name calling and spreading rumors.

McCain will have to have a stellar 97 days of quick wit, full thought, and reasonable temperament-- none of which he is particularly known for-- in order to regain these losses.

Dont forget that for every Hail Mary play that the DB's and Safeties have to run, so do your receivers, backs and line men.

Maybe this is McCain's last stand? If so expect murkier and uglier depictions of the straw man McCain thinks he is running against for POTUS.

BETTING LINE: Watch for Team Obama's rope-a-dope by the second debate where these chickens come home to roost.

Election 2008 Metric: 5'9" -v- 6'1.5"

I am the same height as Obama, and don’t consider myself a height-ist, as my 5’1” mother would call it, but I know it can at times be advantageous.

Only two 20th century Presidents have been 5’ 9” or less: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heights_of_United_States_presidential_candidates

It’s not that McCain (5'9") can not win because of his height, rather that the height factor will work against him as it relates to perceptions of strength and power when compared side by side with Obama (6'1.5").

Another reason that Obama should accept the invitation to Town Hall Meetings (with the proviso that its not a fixed crowd; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/12/mccain-stacks-fox-news-to_n_106881.html) aside from the probability of being able to perform equally or better than McCain, would be to allow the inherent tendency for people to interpret height as power to be demonstrated.

One Man's (Humble) Opinion: Regarding Who Obama Picks for VP

I am not a bettor. I enjoy watching sports when I haven’t made a bet, and in the rare instances I have bet (or “punted” as the British and Aussies would say) on sports, I tend to enjoy the game so much less.

Nothing could be higher stakes right now than our Government here in the US. Therefore, I will not hold back, nor will I bet; I feel it important to make my (one man’s) perceptions known, simply as a matter of record—if not simply for my own piece of mind.

First my political affiliation: I am a social Moderate, and a Fiscal Conservative. I actually registered Republican to vote for Paul, and have been sorely disappointed by some of Paul’s inability to follow through and capitalize on the real grass roots energy behind a true conservative campaign, which would reduce the role of government in the economy and people’s liberties. I consider myself a quasi-Green-Socialist-Libertarian-Progressive, but I think like many thinking adults that I am not easily defined by either of only two parties.

I endorsed Obama in March, when the Clintons clearly were using race as a tactic to divide the electorate, and Paul was by then a non-factor. I would have withheld some judgment would McCain version 1999 have been in the race with non-Bushee advisors. But ‘tis not so, and that horse long left the barn.

That out of the way, I am determined that Obama be free from the Politics of the Past, and his administration be given every chance to recreate the possibilities of American Civil Society, Citizenship, and Liberty… even if I may not totally agree with him on tax policies among several other potential items.

Vice Presidential selection will say a lot about whom Obama is, or more accurately those he already surrounds himself with and whom they would deign to find the most politically economical choice.

I believe this means he cannot pick Hillary Clinton, and should avoid anyone from the Clinton administrations. The Clinton’s and their ilk have proven so divisive that they are essentially a third rail for Obama personally and politically.

In my opinion, no Senators should be up for the Veep job with another Senator. Aside from already losing last cycle as the VP, that would preclude Edwards.

Although tempting, recent converts to Dem ideology should also be ruled out. So, double-plus un-good for Webb, and all his baggage .

I like the thought of a military Dem, but could only find a list of four reasonable candidates. Maybe because I do not know who is who in the Military, but some non-Clintonian Dem with tons of Executive Military experience would seem to be a very good choice. I identified the following Clintonian Military Candidates;

Barry McCaffrey
Wesley Clark
Louis Caldera

And the semi-non-Clintonian (sort of) candidate is Anthony Zinni . However, I feel his political chops are probably not quite ready for prime time, and he is my choice for Secretary of Defense.

That leaves Governors. I think only Governors on their last Term should be considered, with solid Democratic replacements, and some political advantage to gain. Some small state governors are also off my list, and also a couple of the older less charismatic ones don’t show up here either. That leaves:

(Female Governors)
Jennifer Granholm
Janet Napolitano
Kathleen Sebelius

(Male Governors)
Bill Richardson
Mike Easley
Ed Rendell
Phil Bredesen
Tim Kaine


A good list to choose from, but Rendell and Easley are Clintonians—throw the babies out with the bathwater. I like Granholm, but she was born in Canada.

THE LIST:

1*. Bill Richardson. Absolutely the most experienced of all the choices, and would only be trumped in that category by Al Gore himself. Would help to shore up the Catholic Vote; Consolidatse the West, but has the same issue as Napolitano (NM is already leaning towards Obama, and a Western governor may only serve to solidify the votes in WA, OR, CA, NM, and CO)— no real pick ups except maybe NV and MT; Possibly he could be the Latino Galvinzator, so to coin a phrase, to help win FL and dare I suggest TX? Negatives: Like Al Gore he is technically (Clinton) Old Guard; He also has made enemies of the Clintonians, and the idea of not picking a Clintonian is to also not pick someone potentially offensive to that Clinton Old Guard; and finally, although I truly think he would be quite an excellent choice (why I listed him as number one with an asterisk), he does not assuage the de facto racists . But the question is do we need to try to assuage them ? My pick for Secretary of State.

2. Kathleen Sebelius. Fits the profile: Non-Clintonian that has not offended the Old guard; (White) Female who can reassert some of the gains Hillary made for shattering the glass ceiling (and possibly heal some of the rifts between Clinton and Obama supporters); A unifying force in a Red State with a good and well documented bi-partisan track record; and can help to shore up the Catholic Vote while solidifying the Mid-West (IA, KS, maybe MO, others [IN, MI, WI]) states. Like most governors who are not Bill Richardson, we have the downside of no real International Experience. My choice for VP.

3. Tim Kaine. Probably this is one of the safest possible choices, as he has extensive Executive experience. He would not lose votes, may help shore up Catholics, some Southerners, and to a lesser extent that “white male” voting block. Most clearly one could expect he would shore up VA… maybe SC and IN. International Experience is again the downside. Anyone for Webb should rethink and consider Kaine instead, unless they like the military credentials then go back to Zinni—just not Webb !

Honorable Mention

4. Janet Napolitano. Excellent and as experienced as she may be, she is not as charismatic in my humble opinion as Sebelius or Richardson, who cover the blocks (Female or West) better. They are Catholics, and she is a Methodist… not that it matters all that much, but the North East Catholic block seemed to be elusive to Obama in the Primaries. Like Richardson, if he weren’t to have traction with Latinos, she doesn’t represent enough of a pick up, because states she might assist in like CA, NM, and CO are already leaning or in the Dem camp… so AZ (maybe… remember McCain is from AZ) becomes the only (potential) pickup, unless she can help swing NV and MT. She is my pick for Sect of Interior.

5. Phil Bredesen. Another “safe” Southern-White-Male pick. He is not as Experienced as Kaine, he’s not Catholic, and we already had a VP from TN (think vague Clintonian afterglow). This choice may only help to offset some potential Southern prejudice, maybe assisting in picking up TN, MO, SC and maybe some Appalachian bump for OH and PA.