Showing posts with label Transparency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transparency. Show all posts

Friday, June 30, 2017

Time for the California Oranjebüm?

ATTENTION: What if I could show you a way to fundamentally repair the credit markets, fiat currency, trade deficits and inter-state deficit precipitated by the Wall-Street Bailout?

Assumptions:

CA Received Federal Tax Dollars per Dollar Collected by the Federal Government as a Factor of 0.78 (http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsbs-timeseries-20071016-.pdf)

All Taxpayers as a class are owed interest, back fees, and other endured hardships by and from (and in some cases continue to receive) those selfsame Corporations received of that Expenditure.

CA has low bond-ratings by agencies with suspect objectives and motives that limit our ability to represent the true greatness of our burgeoning sciences in CA.


Answer:

In my open letter, disguised as a book, there is the principle of the "Second Level Market," where a State in the Union, without disrespect for any other State or the Federal Powers that be, can issue a Fiat based on some principled value or ordinary credit.

What if we estimated the value of some percentage of the next five years of Orange Crop; Issued a spend-able state run currency, which could be honored and legal tender within the borders of CA, and peggable to a state trust held Option in one of the Mid-West AG markets; and retire the Bond in fifteen years.

A modest proposal, but when The Governator was holding the gun to the State employees and the IOUs were issued! That was when I had this expanded thought upon my "book."

I conclude by suggesting that this simple device be retired at the Federal Bank in Manhattan—it could be in exchange for any deficit between the two states. Or we could use it to buy the Seed Crops from Holland once Hemp becomes Legal (in 2012)!

How's that for 'easier said than done?'

I will leave it to someone who understands these things to figure if I am right, wrong, or just a misguided semi-autodidact.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

It is only a question of, "How Successful?"

I take the opportunity as history is unfolding to create the case for how to answer "how successful will Colorado's legalization be?"

We are almost at the end of the first quarter.  The preliminary figures for the state indicate $2.1 million per month Recreational and about $1.4 million per month for medicinal.

Therefore, , Governor H. et. al., who opposes the purpose or promise, and cautiously enforces the will of the people and law, put out an estimate that the right was quick to glom upon saying that $137million is the revised estimate, not the projected $578million!

Disappointed??  

Okay, so lets review the situation from the point of view of a Business Broker.

(A) Dispensaries and Recreational Dispensaries have the unique problem of being required by law to run an all cash business... only now being solved.  If taxation requires compliance, but compliance means not opening up a Federally Insured account, then we have a reporting problem by definition!

Business operators famously keep poor records.  They are involved in servicing their clients, meeting customer demand, and coordinating vendors.  So, why do we expect the skill sets include math, accounting, or record keeping?  

My experience reviewing hundreds of business opportunities over the years suggest that of the whole: 80% are well meaning but sloppy or contain some small errors; 10% are well kept; and 10% are just outright sad.

I think you must realize that most business owners are working ten hour days almost every day of every year.  No matter how well intentioned, mistakes can be made.  I would put bad actors at about 1 ~ 3% depending on how you define "bad."

Now try doing the whole thing as a cash basis accounting, with only cash.  That adds burden at least, and for comparison if you legally compelled McDonalds, Verizon or Comcast to have to operate that way they would declare Bankruptcy overnight.


(B) January sales figures?  Ever hear of "seasonally adjusted?"  We have endless data about how the cold weather this winter has reduced retail activities across the board.  This is only mitigated by the pent up demand, but there is also novelty effect to consider.  

The pent up demand may skew the figure higher, but number of dispensaries was very limited.  The novelty is a wash-- you would have customers who were trying it out to see what happens, and you would have regular clients possibly holding back to see how "safe" the situation appears.  Therefore, the Season and travel prohibitions (not to mention that in January most licenses for Rec hadn't been approved.... most places are getting their permits in Summer) take the most weight for the adjustment.

So if adjustments are a push, and the skew goes to "January figures," we include that January will probably in five years time be known in the business cycle of Cannabis that January is typically an average month to the mean.



(C) I was wrong, or right it doesn't matter:

  1. One store that was permitted in CO on Jan 1, '14, reported off the record that they had sold approximately $250,000 in the first two weeks.
  2. from that anecdote I estimate ~$500MM in annual tax revenues for CO directly attributable to legalization! Closer to $1BB counting knockons


Okay, so if there are (A) underreporting and (B) adjustments, then we have to consider the truth of how accounting and valuations work... We wont have the actual final and adjusted January '14 numbers until July of 2015!!!


TIME TO PANIC?

Oh no, this really hasn't worked out... I guess this has just been a disappointing experiment in personal freedom and individual liberty.

I relented, now I ask critics of anti-prohibition to relent and admit that actually in these government projections they have met the threshold (where the first $40 million goes to schools) for revenue to run the program, the powers that be will have surplus to spread around, and once again, because Macroeconomics is so vastly complex and so mundanely precise, is an inaccurate art; that therefore any law that pays for itself, improves freedom and liberty, and pays for other state functions-- by definition in Business is a success!



MY PREDICTION?

I am going to hang my hat on the ~$170million mark as the definition for Rec Sales Tax of success.  I will wait until July 2015 to see the whole picture, and then I will ask how the knock-on effects are calculated: employment, employees paying taxes, income generated being sent back into the economy; immigration; and other net benefits to the State.

I will point out that taken as a whole, the fuller effect, the net benefit to the economy will meet my prediction in my tweet, but again I am not that attached to how accurate my prognostication.  That isn't my job!

The state probably has included to some effect the above considerations, but the willingness to structure the dialogue of a government program that not only pays for itself, but earns, as one of disappointment and failure is a non-starter for what will inevitably become the very early days of a multi billion dollar legitimate industry!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Hague Gaddafi


What we are witnessing in the Mid-East today is full of hope and promise, yet signals the beginning of a long road for each of these societies filled with peril and danger.

To that end we begin to see the result of a dictator of convenience to oil consuming nations, thoroughly ensconced in the best soldiers, weapons, and hiding places in his capitol city bitterly beginning his attempt at counter-revolution-- like that picture of the little fish trying to eat the big fish! Except, the big fish is turning around to swim at them and say, "I'm gonna git you sukka!"

Dont worry little fish, stay true to your purpose, and next thing you know the big fish is back to where he once was... moments away from being eaten-- just the opposite direction.

We are witnessing the promise of the world wide web truly materializing-- democratization through information.

In the Reagan era, they called this The Information Age. A bit overstated, but undeniable, too.

When they made the Internet something that anyone, who happened to have a computer, residence, phone line, and subscription, could access we heard of all the exciting potentials.

In this day and age of the $100 computer, multi-function hand held devices with wireless internet access, and the general saturation of technology over time the other shoe has begun it's foot fall.

So, this simple suggestion to the West in general and USA in specific from your humble observer:

This is the opportunity in clearest daylight for the USA and Obama Administration to back the Court of International Justice in Hague, it's processes, and all that it represents for the future of International Justice.

Obviously, events must play themselves out, but when Gaddafi is captured or escapes to his island hideaway, ala Dr. No from James Bond, we Americans must agree that The Hague Court was set up to deal with dictators actively killing their citizens in popular revolt. Where else should we have him tried as a consistent War Criminal and human rights abuser?

That move would continue the momentum we see for transparency, democracy, and set the model for future dictators subject to popular rejection. It would also reverse yet another backward Bush-era policy.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

From the peanut gallery to the rafters... a crib sheet with commentary on the SOTU

Here in Bold are my take-aways, and in italics the words from the speech that best summarized the speech logic points.

Howard Fineman called it 'the most pro-business speech a Democrat has given.'

1. Implied acknowledgement of Keynesian Major Project Theory."The first step in winning the future is encouraging American innovation."

2. Direct acknowledgement of the broken educational mechanisms. "...we also have to win the race to educate our kids."

3. Acknowledgment that one of the most efficacious stimulus actions of money from government would be best spent on Infrastructure. "Our infrastructure used to be the best - but our lead has slipped."

4. Acknowledgement of over-burdened small business part 1: regulatory. "All these investments - in innovation, education, and infrastructure - will make America a better place to do business and create jobs. But to help our companies compete, we also have to knock down barriers that stand in the way of their success."

5. Acknowledgment of over-burdened small and medium businesses part 2: tax code. "So tonight, I'm asking Democrats and Republicans to simplify the system. Get rid of the loopholes. Level the playing field. And use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years - without adding to our deficit."

6. Fiscal Prudence. "Now, the final step - a critical step - in winning the future is to make sure we aren't buried under a mountain of debt."

7. Government streamlining and modernization. "We should give them a government that's more competent and efficient." (Streamlining is a proven savings.)

(The rest focused on foreign policy, summarization and concluding remarks.)

***

Overall, if even some of this gets implemented in a reasonable (dare we suggest bi-partisan) manner, then we stand to be improved economically.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

The Golden Fleece-down

Comcast won approval. Okay, but (and I haven't read the resrictions) should we not limit this transaction from a perspective of the possession or easement of telecommunicative ("two-way") devices in places of private residence or commerce in conjunction with the Potential of an implied warrant* the real issue: data mining, data collection, financial data sharing; etc.

*The former issue was similar to the subsidized railways of the 19th century, and now that much of the hard infrastructure is "owned," this implied or real monopoly on a market-by-market basis, in conjunction with certain content monopoly issues (channel restrictions, access limitations, and slower speeds for content not preferred) all imply that this will be bad for consumers.

This is a merger of Producer and Distributor to attempt to break this deal down into the simplest terms, and they have the customers "clicks" right in their hand.

I have Comcast Service, and it isn't as good as all that. Technical issues quite frequently, and local outages. That said, ATT U-Verse had major outages right over the holidays (as many are well aware) nation wide.

I would like to see better consumer protections... my bill has only gone up, and not just as a direct function of inflation.

How does this benefit consumers directly?

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Silly Season: Open for Hunting

Dems have always had constituent group politics: gays, latinos, blacks, labor, etc.

Those groups, or factions, dont always agree, and often dont get everything they wanted, either.

This flexibility is something the Pubs are not known for; if anything they are know as being in lock-step, on-message, and in-synch-- a real machine. Except now, they really dont agree with one another on how best to proceed, and Boehner may risk (political) life and limb trying to get the stump out of the thresher-- to use a farming metaphor.

In other words, they now actually have sub-groups!

How Boehner deals with the transition to a group process format for these expressed interest will be measured by the body count in the 2012 elections. Try focusing on that instead of screwing Obama, and by the transitive property the nation as well-- First reason, it's what you guys did last time you were "in power."

Lest we should forget that neither party wants to talk about the real pain points, and so most of what is being fed as the primary proceedings of the political dialogue in DC really amounts to irrelevant misdirection to keep the interested confused and the rest of us bored with all of the lying!

Saturday, November 13, 2010

New Tax Code

I really dont want to wade into the debate regarding the trial balloon, yet, but will say:

Close, but no cigar.

At least they didn't try to "please all the people all the time," and had political wisdom to understand that the recommendations wouldn't survive the congressional bile movements.

And I like they are starting down the road towards simplification, but some Tax deductions may be necessary.

That leads me to my only point;

They seem to forget that taxes, and the Relief therefrom, are the way to incentivize the citizenry and business alike.

Subsidies, tax breaks, and even certain "credit" type programs between the government and the citizens they propose to collect and protect (not be too cynical) from, can be made clear to create our future economy and growth from this recessionary hangover.

Ideas?

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

A New FHA for Consumer Credit: Deficit Neutral and No New Taxes Required

QUALIFIED FEDERAL CONSUMER LOAN PROGRAM PROPOSAL
(CLP) 1-50K

Premiss. In today’s economic reality debt is an admissable “sin,” that is not only permitted, rather it is encouraged on the whole by church and state, so simply we are told to spend, buy, and consume... and this we do.

Debt is a modern reality for every individual, family, and even local government!

As such, we must see that an eighteen year old today looking to become a “college educated,” independent person must then be admittting to entree of no less than $50,000.00 of debt ceiling in a very humble estimate of “standard,” education.

If we are expected to have an “average” college level of training, and earn a “reasonable” salary, then we should pretty much be planning with debt as a reality, not an “escape, or emergency.”

By dealing with debtor’s thinking only in crisis type situation we create and engage in unrealistic, non-methodological, and, often, rash decisions and decision making processes.

This applies to the emblematic purchases, such as mementos, and translates all the way through to extraordinary purchases (home, auto, business, etc.).

So, even college educated, especially the most recently graduated, speaking as the last ‘wave’ (or two) of persons graduated in a similarly desperate Employment Situation, I was similarly disappointed for many reasons (1995, not being the best day to enter into the “economy,” laden with debt loads that at this vantage seem simple and easy) after graduating college. See Affordability.



Imagining a Consumer Loan Program. The image of a pup-tent... Four tent-pegs and a tent post (or two):


Peg One. Using “Sallie Mae-style Rules,” herein referred to as the 1-50K (that’s one dash fifty kay), would require the first fifty thousand in debt of any individual American Consumer to be treated with the forbearance, interest rate restrictions, and fair regulation and rules treatment, similar to if it was a student loan.

The proposal here may potentially include minor Consumer Loan Protection adjustments and improvements to the Sallie Mae Rules, but it does not and should not affect the actual Sallie Mae Program.

A new entity, or possibly branch or division of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is proposed to be sponsored by the government for these purposes, as it relates to individual debt;

(A) Government Guarantee to it’s citizens (for that first $50,000)

(B) Regulate the micro-loan ($1 to $50,000 dollars US) markets, and to a lesser extent simplify the small business lending process ($50,001 to $250,000 dollars US) for micro (under $250,000) business loans

(C) Work with existing regulatory and oversight bodies to ensure consumer protections

(D) Independent oversight to expand recommendations for counsel with various regulatory and economic agencies


Government backing will create a secondary market to resell pools of bonds like Sallie, Freddy and Fannie. In this recommendation, we strongly urge the oversight of regulations and the simplicity and transparency of rules, and suggest this could become a means for clarifying, and making positive change in the bond and securities markets, extant.

Micro-loans, those under fifty-thousand dollars, to individuals, as secured by real property, tangible property, or without security are all considered equivalent in this regard, and refer to those US citizens to whom there is such indebtedness, often above and beyond just this loan amount.

I imagine that if this program and set of reforms were so implemented, by having no required loan minimums, we may expect this provision would create a swarm of micro credit availability and lending programs.

Working in concert with existing laws agencies and institutions, new modified and streamlined rules would allow for a massive wave of refinancing of consumer debt.

In some cases, individual credit may be extended.

This proposal amounts to a non-bankruptcy proposal to the American citizen, and an admission by it’s leaders’ that the economic policies for the last decades have not (i) improved affordability, (ii) fully redressed income or prosperity gaps, nor (iii) have fully redressed income discrimination or dispairities.

Debt is unfortunately inevitable, and we (apparently continue to) follow the example of our leaders.


Peg Two. Consumer Rights, Responsibilities, and Limitations

(A) Interest. Your interest rate may not be usurious. Rates are here proposed to have a regulated minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 7.5%.

(B) Credit. Your “credit rating” can be calculated by a monkey. Five percentage points between 2.5 and 7.5 percent, create five categories of credit-worthiness:

a. Real Estate Attached and Full Documentation (Only)
b. Tangible Property Attached and Full Documentation
c. Tangible Property Attached and Low Documentation
d. Signature Only and Full Documentation
e. Signature Only and Low Documentation

(C) Limits. Your Loan Limit will be one factor where affordability and litmus tests can come into play. (It’s a government-backed loan, not a guarantee that someone will lend.)

(D) Tax Deduction. Any Interest paid on these loans is a write-off, so long as the item purchased isn’t also being depreciated in the tax year interest is written off.

(E) Business. Aside from a shot in the arm with refreshed credit sources, and credit availability, (S, SE, Sole Proprietorship, and 1099) small businesses and contractors will get an additional allowance of benefit in their own category, and these three elements of credit availability and liquidity combined should act as a serious stimulus for Main Street.

(F) Families. Any individual who claims any (one or more) dependant will automatically qualify for an additional $5000.00 credit limit.

(G) Responsibility. Although any Individual or business may refinance the first amount of debt ant any time, without pre-payment penalties, the debt may only be paid-off, and cannot be discharged through Bankruptcy.


Central Tent Pole. Insurance.

In a counter-balance to the risk of “no BK,” or ‘bankruptcies,’ to the consumer there is, aside from the potential for a secondary market in the government backed securities, another mitigating factor to the macro investors, as well as the creditors themselves.

There needs to be a tent pole in place that assures there is a sound investment proposal, otherwise this becomes a government-propped scheme, as opposed to a government operated trust on behalf of the Consumer.

Although no “insurance requirement” is here recommended to be used as a factor for making any one loan, an “insurance component,” that would be available to be opted in to any loan at any time, and in accordance with Federal and State rules, that allows for the expense of servicing to cover the costs of an insurance premium that benefits the Debt-Holder.

These policies do not have to be that simple, but they should follow some rules of the road, and is here recommended can not add to the expense of having taken the loan.

First off, according to this recommendation, like the loans have no pre-payment penalties, these insurance policies can be bought back by the consumer. After a debt is satisfied, the Debt Holder, must offer the consumer a fair right to redeem the Policy being held on his or her life.

Further, that right (1. to satisfy the debt, and 2. to retain the benefit of policy) is best if it also transfers to one’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free, and no undue delay may be created by the Debt Holder.

Finally, a Debt Holder will be required to follow certain time periods that describe normal and requisite response times from Consumer to retrieve such a benefit.

However, in the event of a default, or the death of any consumer, after following procedure in concert with appropriate notification, waiting and response times, the Debt Holder may be considered in first position to discharge all costs against the benefits of any policy so entrusted, before transferring any fully accounted and audited remainder to the Consumer’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free.

By including this insurance component with the government backed facility, (A) we have a secondary guarantee to have any consumer debt satisfied, (B) we have mitigated risk, so justifying the limits on interest rates and fees.

As Mortgage Insurance does for FHA Loans, so for the Debentures and Debts this private Life insurance market will act to mitigate risks posed by individual Consumers acting as borrowers, and secondarily will have the collective benefit of mitigating risks of recoupment of principle. Overall, this should be very attractive to investors, particularly if these debentures remain dollar denominated.


Peg Three. Resultant Savings.

If any of this remains unclear, for whatever reason, just do some basic research and consumer financial education and find out the difference between a typical credit card loan = a negatively amortized revolving loan with fees and rates between 6.99 and 29.99%, and the proposal here to make a flat rate of forbearable interest, fee restrictions, and a rate range from 2.50 and 7.50%-- this will save the average American family $1152 per year!
-
Just three ideas and a comment, from what would certainly be an eventual plethora as a result of these recommendations, of ways to improve the Consumer outcome in dealing with Affordability and Debenture, as a net benefit from these rule ideas, for this peg of the tent that may all be simultaneously executed:

(A) In Loan Work-outs, refinances, and/or other incentivized restructuring programs, a tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs [see Health Savings Account]) may be set up on behalf of the Consumer as a “Learning to Save,” qualification for any business that would so seek to be qualified. That tax free account would eventually revert to the Consumer, after all debts have been satisfied. Lawyers, insurance Agents, Brokers, as well as Credit Counselors, Not for Profit Debt Agencies, et. al. would be ideal candidates to assist in this program by becoming tested, qualified and bonded as a credentialed, licensed and recognized Trustee.

(B) In consumer credit devices, a similar tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs) may be set up as an incentive to qualify for lower interest rates (still have to be between 2.5 and 7.5% however), and may also with certain restrictions be set up as an overdraft protection mechanism.

(C) After a debt has been satisfied, any remainder due the consumer, with or without any insurance component(s), may be set into a new or existing tax-free savings account.

(D) Comment: Creditors are here recommended to be fully compliant as Trustees and meet additional requirements to participate in housing the principle sums for individual Consumers' Savings Trusteeship accounts that qualify for the FDIC sponsored savings program(s), preferable to local banks, Credit Unions, and Bonded Agents already insured by FDIC.


Peg Four. Business.

Loan Limits here proposed: for individual are $1 ~ $45,000 and then an additional $5,000 if you claim any dependant.

If you file Jointly, then as a couple your combined maximum limit for tax-deductable interest payments on qualified consumer loans is $90,000 and then an additional $5,000 for your first, and second $5,000 if you claim any dependants numbering 2 or above.

If you file as a Sole Proprietor, SE, S-Corp, or 1099, then under additional rules you may apply for “SBA Rules,” or 51-250K (that’s fifty-one dash two-hundred fifty kay [as in loan limits from $51 ~ 250 thousands]), which only should have in common with SBA Loans (1) they’re for Business Purposes, and (2) the government acts as backer of last resort.


Otherwise, only a Board of Advisors role is recommended by this proposal to be held something like at an annual meeting between this Consumer Loan Program (CLP) and the Small Business Administration to coordinate and harmonize lending rules would seem to be potentially necessary.

Same Interest Rate Limits as the first tent peg.

Same 5 credit categories as the first tent peg.

Same tax deduction, same everything, except (i.) loan limits go higher (up to $250,000), but may be slightly more restrictive, and (ii.) may potentially have pre-payment penalties, or other restrictions.

Cash flow of the business, credit worthiness, and net worth should all come into play, but ideally not be so inflexible as to stifle our nations Entrepreneurs from getting a second, third, or even fourth chance at success, the pursuit of happiness, and creation of Jobs!


Conclusion to this proposal. Imaging Purpose; The Second Tent Pole.

The government must act as debtor of last resort in order to encourage the Lending Institutions, and the Financial Industry in general, to effectuate a new game plan, which better enables and ennobles our American Citizenry—A Right to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness—all three things that Lending can do when capital is properly employed.

This proposal is intended to be tax neutral, and highly stimulative to the economy.

Finally, I suggest a slogan to this Agency, Consumer Loan Program, or what-have you, and it reads simply:

Indifference and Forbearance


To whit a philosophy:

This agency in its oversight shall be indifferent to the “whom,” and focus only on the ‘what and how’ in order to protect the consumer, detect fraud and abuse, and foster equal lending practices at the micro-Business and individual Consumer levels.

The objective of this agency is to promote the free flow of capital investment to the farthest reaches of our economy.

Policy and procedure are the foundation, Rule of Law the building, and the marketplace of American Citizens shall be the people whom would so enjoin to make Consumer Loans.

This agency shall preserve the mission to forbear, for the Government must lead by example, and that purpose is: (i) a tolerant and quiet strength with efficiency in motion, (ii) an unyielding belief in Americans as a group and as individuals, (iii) and straightforwardness of purpose.

To bring to bear the proper practices available to the Consumer on the economy.

And, to create opportunities for the American Citizenry in their pursuits of Life, Liberty and happiness.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

BP Aftermath

Knock wood that there will only be an absolute minimum of oil spilt hereafter from the Deep Water Horizon Disaster.

That said, a quick reckoning, and I think the Obama Admin got this right:

My assumptions-- A leak of 80K BBL per Day with a straight line 1% reduction over 86 days to define the various captures, ruptures, and miscillaneous unknown variables (unless BP would like to submit the actual data, instead of somehow going from 1000BBL to 5000BBL to as much as 80000BBL per day-- I feel this method is fair); The fine is $4300 per barrel per day that such oil remains uncleaned;

What we come up with is just about $20BB as of today... BP you better get to cleaning!

(Here is my worksheet [sorry it didn't come out that great, but gotta go]:

Days BBL/dayTOTAL BBLs in MM gal Fine in $MM TOT Fine $BB
1 80000 80000 3.36 $344.00 $0.34
2 79200 159200 6.69 $684.56 $0.68
3 78408 237608 9.98 $1,021.71 $1.02
4 77624 315232 13.24 $1,355.50 $1.36
5 76848 392080 16.47 $1,685.94 $1.69
6 76079 468159 19.66 $2,013.08 $2.01
7 75318 543477 22.83 $2,336.95 $2.34
8 74565 618042 25.96 $2,657.58 $2.66
9 73820 691862 29.06 $2,975.01 $2.98
10 73081 764943 32.13 $3,289.26 $3.29
11 72351 837294 35.17 $3,600.36 $3.60
12 71627 908921 38.17 $3,908.36 $3.91
13 70911 979832 41.15 $4,213.28 $4.22
14 70202 1050033 44.10 $4,515.14 $4.52
15 69500 1119533 47.02 $4,813.99 $4.82
16 68805 1188338 49.91 $5,109.85 $5.11
17 68117 1256454 52.77 $5,402.75 $5.41
18 67435 1323890 55.60 $5,692.73 $5.70
19 66761 1390651 58.41 $5,979.80 $5.99
20 66093 1456744 61.18 $6,264.00 $6.27
21 65433 1522177 63.93 $6,545.36 $6.55
22 64778 1586955 66.65 $6,823.91 $6.83
23 64130 1651086 69.35 $7,099.67 $7.11
24 63489 1714575 72.01 $7,372.67 $7.38
25 62854 1777429 74.65 $7,642.95 $7.65
26 62226 1839655 77.27 $7,910.52 $7.92
27 61603 1901258 79.85 $8,175.41 $8.18
28 60987 1962246 82.41 $8,437.66 $8.45
29 60378 2022623 84.95 $8,697.28 $8.71
30 59774 2082397 87.46 $8,954.31 $8.96
31 59176 2141573 89.95 $9,208.76 $9.22
32 58584 2200157 92.41 $9,460.68 $9.47
33 57998 2258156 94.84 $9,710.07 $9.72
34 57418 2315574 97.25 $9,956.97 $9.97
35 56844 2372418 99.64 $10,201.40 $10.21
36 56276 2428694 102.01 $10,443.39 $10.45
37 55713 2484407 104.35 $10,682.95 $10.69
38 55156 2539563 106.66 $10,920.12 $10.93
39 54604 2594168 108.96 $11,154.92 $11.17
40 54058 2648226 111.23 $11,387.37 $11.40
41 53518 2701744 113.47 $11,617.50 $11.63
42 52983 2754726 115.70 $11,845.32 $11.86
43 52453 2807179 117.90 $12,070.87 $12.08
44 51928 2859107 120.08 $12,294.16 $12.31
45 51409 2910516 122.24 $12,515.22 $12.53
46 50895 2961411 124.38 $12,734.07 $12.75
47 50386 3011797 126.50 $12,950.73 $12.96
48 49882 3061679 128.59 $13,165.22 $13.18
49 49383 3111062 130.66 $13,377.57 $13.39
50 48889 3159951 132.72 $13,587.79 $13.60
51 48400 3208352 134.75 $13,795.91 $13.81
52 47916 3256268 136.76 $14,001.95 $14.02
53 47437 3303706 138.76 $14,205.93 $14.22
54 46963 3350669 140.73 $14,407.88 $14.42
55 46493 3397162 142.68 $14,607.80 $14.62
56 46028 3443190 144.61 $14,805.72 $14.82
57 45568 3488758 146.53 $15,001.66 $15.02
58 45112 3533871 148.42 $15,195.64 $15.21
59 44661 3578532 150.30 $15,387.69 $15.40
60 44215 3622747 152.16 $15,577.81 $15.59
61 43773 3666519 153.99 $15,766.03 $15.78
62 43335 3709854 155.81 $15,952.37 $15.97
63 42901 3752756 157.62 $16,136.85 $16.15
64 42472 3795228 159.40 $16,319.48 $16.34
65 42048 3837276 161.17 $16,500.29 $16.52
66 41627 3878903 162.91 $16,679.28 $16.70
67 41211 3920114 164.64 $16,856.49 $16.87
68 40799 3960913 166.36 $17,031.93 $17.05
69 40391 4001304 168.05 $17,205.61 $17.22
70 39987 4041291 169.73 $17,377.55 $17.39
71 39587 4080878 171.40 $17,547.77 $17.57
72 39191 4120069 173.04 $17,716.30 $17.73
73 38799 4158868 174.67 $17,883.13 $17.90
74 38411 4197280 176.29 $18,048.30 $18.07
75 38027 4235307 177.88 $18,211.82 $18.23
76 37647 4272954 179.46 $18,373.70 $18.39
77 37270 4310224 181.03 $18,533.96 $18.55
78 36898 4347122 182.58 $18,692.62 $18.71
79 36529 4383651 184.11 $18,849.70 $18.87
80 36163 4419814 185.63 $19,005.20 $19.02
81 35802 4455616 187.14 $19,159.15 $19.18
82 35444 4491060 188.62 $19,311.56 $19.33
83 35089 4526149 190.10 $19,462.44 $19.48
84 34739 4560888 191.56 $19,611.82 $19.63
85 34391 4595279 193.00 $19,759.70 $19.78
86 34047 4629326 194.43 $19,906.10 $19.93 )

Sunday, January 31, 2010

President's Question Time

An incredible display of the evolution of democracy and accountability was put on by President Obama this week.

To me, this was a culmination of what I am only assuming was fine political calculation.

My assumption, based on absolutely nothing other than life experience alone: This kind of "Prime Minister's Question Time" was something candidate Obama had on his Transparency Wishlist.

But President ranks somewhere between King and Prime Minister here in the USA, so the UK model isn't totally apt; besides this was ('would be' goes the imaginary explanation to then candidate Obama) a radical step which needed to be timed correctly. I cant imagine how much more apt this exercise's introduction to the dialogue of transparency and accountability could have been.

Remarkable points;

(I) Had Obama done this earlier, in say August, the flux af the situation could have greatly distorted outcomes of the various vitriol of the time (people yelling at politicians in town halls about false rumors).

(II) By waiting a full year to watch as the Congress fiddled while the US was burning, Obama has now set himself apart from their poor favorability-- all parties.

(III) Having all but lost this first match (in what is expected to be a three to eight match game) in the health care issue, in spite of many accomplishments by the Congress, the culture of Partisanship was writ large by the election of the Junior Senator from MA. Obama's final answer hammered home the point about no one talking with one another, looking only to score rhetorical points, and the active schadenfreude by both parties and their mouthpieces-- including the acts and deeds to extend and further that attitude of blame and buck passing.

(IV) Responding to the situation of somehow 51 Senators no longer being considered a majority, rather that the threat of cloture and filibuster was so persistent by this sessions Republican's now 60 barely qualified as a majority, he held this first televised question time with the Republican's. He had earlier held question time with Democrats, but did not televise that. This partial version of the UK PM?T, essentially broadsided the Pubs into having to answer for the elephant in the room (pun intended), that of the obstructionist tact.

(V) Finally, like a breath of fresh air, this display of scholarly brinksmanship, artful rhetoric, and skilled debate highlighted the features of a qualified President! It does not matter what that President's policies are... the question is do we have an Executive truly capable and qualified to be the Chief? A command of details and issues, clarity in thought and actions, and accurate language to reflect the inner mind of a political genius. All POTUS' are by definition political geniuses (sorry rabid detractors of Bush II), because somehow they got there to the station of our republic's modern Ceasar. If somehow Obama makes this a regular feature of our modern 21st Century 24 hour News democracy/political cycle, then we can expect it, like the State of the Union, to be an essential set piece for the abilities of any future POTUS or would-be POTUS-- much as it is already standard form for any PM or shadow Minister to be able to stand the hot seat of the multiparty question time held in the UK's House of Commons almost weekly.

***

SO my humble suggestions:

(A) Next time, treat it exactly like the PM?T and have all members of either the Senate or House (not both at the same time, but from all parties) voluntarily attend the televised question time. This will then promote a semblance of dialogue, because by then calling from the various parties and factions in alternate, there approximates the status of a political conversation or national dialogue (NOT DIRECTED BY THE MEDIA!).

(B) To be fair to everyone, let's have these events as more or less scheduled set pieces, no sudden TV cameras in the room at the last minute. That said, probably one of these per quarter is more towards our Corporation style republic model, as opposed to the weekly meeting of Ministers and MPs in just the lower house version in UK. (Also, probably best to have these set about two to three weeks after recess has ended so (i) the members would have fresh info from constituents, (ii) any changes from elections and such would be more or less in place, and (iii) everyone was making a fresh start-- more or less.)

(C) Like PM?T, maybe have some Cabinet Members available to be referred to for details? I think in the case of our financial mess, this would either secure Geitner as a great choice or put him on the fast track to join the millions of unemployed!

(D) Like the UK, sometimes the PM cant make it, so why not Pelosi, Reid, or even >gulp< Biden to make interim question times?

+++

Kudos to Obama, and I think anyone from any party, who believe transparency and accountability is important for our nation and its political system to begin to heal and repair itself, would have to agree!

Thursday, October 15, 2009

What Made The Greatest Generation Better?




Startling to imagine that the people starting families, going to college and buying homes earned about 59% less than we do for homes that cost 217% less!


So in other words, a male in 1950 (who made a median income of ~$20K) could buy a median home that would cost him three times his gross income (~$55K), and if the female of the nuclear family was also working she could add about $9K p.a. to the kitty-- meaning a joint income family bought homes in the fifties USA for about twice their gross earnings!


If we reverse that using 2008 numbers: Median Wage was ~$32K, so a single earner should be able to buy a home that costs ~$96K...

According to census.gov the wage gap in 2004 was at ~77%, so that means the median female made ~$25K. The joint earners then have a combined ~$57K, and again, reversing the idea, a home should cost ~$106K!

-OR-

Instead of homes costing between $96K and $106K, we could reverse the wage disparity against home costs:

According to realtor.org, the Median price for homes in Dec. 2008 was $175K nationally. Lets not worry that there have been some slight improvements in the market, or how complex the marketplace really is for our purposes here, and agree that indeed $175K is fair (even in NY and CA).

Going back to the 1950's, that would put (male) wage earners at one-third of home price, or ~$58K per year!

If we accommodate the idea that gender equality has somehow had a negative impact (that is to say, lets make pay equal in our assumption, but reduce by a factor of 77% this reverse affordability [$58k * 0.77]), then we still get two earners who each gross just under $45K each!

And this still lags the 1950's statistic (where not making distinctions of male or female) a dual income family would earn ~$97K (an extra $7K).

Thats median, which means the perfect middle of all people, or in the case of property, a middle of the road home-- an imaginary concept. That said if we have only one person at the median, and everyone else is skewered to the furthest reaches (say very rich and very poor) this does little to promote a middle class, which the Greatest Generation also had the benefit of.

"The wealthiest 10 percent of Americans — those making more than $138,000 each year — earned 11.4 times the roughly $12,000 made by those living near or below the poverty line in 2008." (Note: they quote "median income" as '$50,303,' but they mean MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME!!!)

So the way back to 1950's prosperity? Increase affordability not just for some, but many.

(References: Median Wages and Home Prices, Census.gov; Inflation Adjustment Westegg.com; Chart assumption for 2010 Estimate = [2008 Median Wage according to BLS.GOV = $32,290, but carried ADJUSTED 2000 Median Wage of $36,200 into 2008 value $38,841as parity for estimate of 2010 Median Wage] / [DEC 2008 Median Home Price without adjustment or improvement or decline.].)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Keeping Score

Trying not to get totally sidelined by the Obameter!


My God I wish all the Presidents had one of these... It would have been amazing to watch the Bushes break promises, or see more clearly Reagan and Clinton's agendas.


This is truly our first 21st Century President, now being held accountable to every campaign promise, in the golden light of free speech and public access. That is a good definition of transparency, and certainly everything Obama's Administration does to address this extant challenge will set precedent.


So lets see the score card for what it really is:


TOTAL PROMISES:
515

PERCENTAGE ADDRESSED (Jan ~ Oct [so about ten months]):
36% (185/515)

PERCENTAGE ADDRESSED KEPT:
25% (47/185)

PERCENTAGE ADDRESSED COMPROMISED:
6% (12/185)

PERCENTAGE ADDRESSED BROKEN:
4% (7/185)

PERCENTAGE ADDRESSED STALLED:
6% (12/185)

PERCENTAGE IN THE WORK (ADDRESSED and TOTAL):
ADDRESSED; 58% (107/185)
TOTAL; 21% (107/515)

***

Now lets assign a number of time to this data set: we could argue that it has only been ten months, and 10/48 is about 21%. For simplicity lets say that some political capital has been expended and that this report card is emblemic of about one years worth of future work load-- or 25%.

Lets assume a similar rate of success/failure per annum:

9.125% KEPT
2.33% COMPROMISED
1.35% BROKEN
20.777% IN PROCESS


We then get this matrix:

1 2 3 4
KEPT 47 94 141 188
COMPROMISED 12 24 36 48
BROKEN 7 14 21 28
STALLED 12 24 36 48
PROCESS 107 214 281 203
UNSTARTED 330 145 0 0


Which translates to:

By year three all promises will have been addressed. If we count compromises as promises kept thats about a 46% success rate, or without compromise about a .365 batting average-- not bad.

5.44% of promises are broken, and 9.32% are "stalled." If we assume these to be the same we come up with a cumulative 14.76% failure rate.

At this same rate of progress, assuming a re-election, adding an additional 31 promises then by year eight:


5 6 7
KEPT 235 282 329
COMPROMISED 60 72 84
BROKEN 35 42 49
STALLED 60 72 84
PROCESS 125 78 0


That would leave year eight to hammer through the 84 pieces of stalled business and run the new candidate slates.

It translates to the following baseball stats:

Kept .603
Comp .154
Broke .090
Stall .153


I know this methodology is simplistic, but to imagine a President held this accountable that someone like me can do the baseball math-- and to imagine a President who can keep his or her word 75% of the time in the light of public scrutiny-- is a good start.