We can see (http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do) from fundraising activities the “voting with the pocketbook,” when juxtaposed with current polling data that a clear, if not much more chaotic, picture of the oncoming battles comes into view.
I. Fundraising Leader Board (Notables only—not all states listed):
07Q2;
Obama – KY, TN, VA, MO, ND, MT, and CO
McCain – NH
Clinton – WV, OH, IN, OK
07Q3;
Obama – KY, IN, WI, NH, ND, SD, NE
McCain – MN, MI, OK
Clinton – FL, NC, VA, WV, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX and CO
07Q4;
Obama – WI, IA, and MN
McCain – Only LA, and AZ (notable in its own right)
Clinton – GA, VA, WV, IN, MO, AR, and CO
08Q1 (All Listed);
McCain – FL, MI, MS, LA, MO, and AZ
Romney – UT
Clinton – AL, AR, OK, and NE
Obama – ALL OTHERS
II. The Money Map:
Number of DEM STATES; 40
Number of REP STATES; 10
III. NEW Regional Winners (redefinition of the regions by money-winner);
DEMOCRATS
Pacific (AK, HI, WA, OR, CA) = Obama
Select South (GA, NC, VA, KY) = Obama
Great Lakes (PA, OH, IN, IL, WI, and MN) = Obama
Great Plains (MO, IA, KS, NE, and ND) = Obama
Liberal Mountain West (CO and MT) = Obama
Gulf (TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL) = Clinton
Clinton Country (WV, MD, DC, NJ, RI, and NY) = Clinton
Delaware = Biden
New Mexico = Richardson
REPUBLICANS
Romney Country (UT, NV, ID, WY) = Romney
McCain Country (AZ, MS, and SC) = McCain
South Dakota = Giuliani
Tennessee = Thompson
Michigan = Romney
IV. If we now default all Republican Winners to McCain, and Democratic Winners to Obama, and then compare with (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) today’s polling data (deducting opposite, close, and statistical dead heats) we have the following potential Toss-Up States:
AK, NV, SC, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, MT, and what looks to be the belle of the ball MI.
V. By Party the following Contested States where Money Winners through 08Q1, but are dead heat or losing the polls;
DEM: AK, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, and MT
REP: MI and SC
VI. Starting first with Money Leader board, then overturning by Poll results we have the following Electoral College Estimate:
Obama: 317
McCain: 221
VII. Defining the Battles by Region:
Pacific: Obama may be able to make AK competitive, as part of a Grand Pacifica strategy, but his time would be better spent sucking already Dem-leaning NV into a Continental Pacific Time Zone sweep.
Romney Country: McCain can’t afford to take for granted NV, or AZ, for that mater, being surrounded by Obama states to the West and Southeast.
McCain Country: He has a battle in South Carolina and the South in general.
Gulf: As Obama begins to actually campaign there, watch the battle in FL drain the McCain coffers… he can’t afford to lose FL—a big market with lots of media expenses.
Clinton Country: Obama will let WV go in exchange for VA and SC, but if he can create an effective Appalachian strategy he may be able to convince WV to swing with his version of Hillary’s programs and even put up a fight in KY.
Select South: Expect this to be the next place where McCain, if he expects to be competitive, has to fight a real ground battle with real dollars. Obama has a shot at all but KY, even though he has been in the Money over and over again there, and McCain needs to run a clean sweep for any hope at a Republican victory.
Great Lakes: McCain really hopes to hurt Obama here (his home court) especially if we include MI. IN will be competitive, and the RNC hopes to put MN in play with convention location.
Great Plains: First Major Battle Ground Zone. MO, IA, KS, NE, SD and ND could break either way as individual states with specific needs.
Mountain West (including Romney Country): Second Major Battle Ground Zone. CO, NM, MT and NV in the one corner and UT, WY, and ID in the other (and AZ in McCain’s column barring total meltdown).
VIII. The Emerging War
McCain’s only real Attack:
(A) Clean sweep of the (old definition) “Mason Dixon Line” South, including VA, FL, and SC
(B) Full attack of the (old definition) “Rust Belt” to win PA, OH, and/or MI
(C) Defend (old definition) “Marlboro Country” (MT, NV, NM, and CO)
Obama’s Defense:
(A) Expand the Liberal Mountain West to include NV, MT, and maintain the momentum for pickups in NM and CO
-and-
(B) Take at least one Southern state such as FL, GA, SC, NC, or VA
(C) Or win 50% or better of the Great Plains (IA, MO, SD for instance)
-and-
(D) Hold the Great Lakes and North East (with or without IN)
IX. Battleground States to Watch
FL, MI, VA, PA, OH, NV, IA, SC, NC, IN, MT, CO, NM, MO, SD, NH, GA and I would also argue that LA may come into play sooner or later.
X. CONCLUSION:
Barring a major lapse in judgment from his opponent, McCain has to draw battle lines upon the old ways and methods to have any real chance of winning an Electoral College Majority. He is outgunned in fundraising, and probably outclassed in Campaign Management, Ground Game Organization, and Message. Therefore, expect to hear a lot of the old appeals to gun owners, anti-abortionists, and family values in order to attempt a last hurrah at seeing things in terms of South and North, Liberal Elite and Working Class, and don’t count out some of the ugly tongue-in-cheek de facto racial elements designed to distract to rear their heads once or twice before November.
Obama has to continue to use the new definitions of a borderless society (Internet), which does not confine or define its citizenry by gender, race, or class and run a positive and “hope-based” campaign. If he can stay on message without major missteps or miscalculations, then this is his War to lose.
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