Showing posts with label Fishing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fishing. Show all posts

Sunday, March 20, 2011

How Cataclysm is Reality Check

The Disaster in Japan, presently mounting towards becoming something we will only hope to determine in a couple of months could be at least worse than Three-Mile Island and probably not as bad as Chernobyl; that is the Nuclear (Environment [Energy {consumption/scarcity} Economy] Health) Situation.

The Disaster in Japan is an example of the force of the oceans, a vivid recreation of the Indonesian Tsunami, but with the million dollar yachts, middle class houses, and video cameras slushing about everywhere—all floating together equally: that the reality TV, media, yet very real Safety Preparedness issues brought front and center for the World to see.

The Disaster in Japan was also a Massive Series of Earthquakes. Three Disasters in one, and all of them begging questions. Fundamental questions that I am confident the Japanese Society, and the World with which they have built tremendous store of good will, interdependence, and fair trade can answer the questions being asked by this Natural Disaster.

To come back to simplicity, the tragedy shows beggar, rich man, and thief all equally were swept away. All died, and were spared only according to natural forces – not perceptions or falsehoods held by society. Chaos, and randomness. DONATE TODAY!

We can use this crisis soon to be molded into opportunity to better understand our Society, too.


The first question begged, Nuclear, asks us to truly have Utilities, states, and corporations acknowledge that we are currently (this includes everything from Climate Change to Household cleansers, and includes everything else we make) conducting a real-time open ended chemistry experiment with our environs and habitat for which we rely upon sustenance. I have complained very loudly in my book Metaeconomics on the subject of incorrect assessment of lifetime costs and benefit-cost analysis in resource valuation.

The second shows us that seven generations thinking (planning for 7 x 30 = 210 years in advance) is required to address the engineering challenges of Reality posed by the forces of nature, and made worsening of those disasters.

Home itself as physical object is impermanent. So, any disaster in, near, or by the home becomes a scientific and engineering issue. At the extreme end, we have to be conscious also of our massive garbage and waste streams, and thus reusability, recycle-ability, biodegrability, etc.

For example: Is it too much to ask to buy a washing machine that your grandkids could inherit (still operational)? Or imagine you could use parts from your washing machine to replace parts to fix by hand (using simple tools) your futuristic vacuum? That the broken part can be sold for scrap to the local hardware store for re-smelting?

On the other hand, living spaces are designed to ideally (looking at older cultures than ours in Modern USA) last a similar 210 years... or many, many more!

Japan has the opportunity to unleash the resources to create an actual place where they find their best and brightest technological possibilities. Entire new, green, and safe communities can arise by direct result of the response by the question being begged.

Maybe there is hope for Nuclear Safety, but clearly like Deep Sea Oil Drilling, like Trickle Down Economics, and a parade of other less than flexible ideas we have recently witnessed self-destruct (or at the very least flies in ointment canisters -- if not fact based proofs against them) in our times.

Finally, to be specific and real in my example, the idea of a California Coastal Commission has been the obvious joke in my experience (and many others) in real estate, architecture, engineering, planning, design, and other professional experience. Saying CCC in many circles is short hand for bureaucratic nightmare and red tape.

However, by looking at the scope of the challenge now before our friends in Japan, we can see clearly why certain agencies do exist for betterment of common good issues like health, safety, environment and planning. We may however need to streamline, and make efficient this series of systems and conflicting agencies.

So, we should mirror our friends as they rebuild their infrastructure, help them in doing so, and use the massive economic requirements to upgrade and refurbish our crumbling infrastructure system.


  • In these next years, the friendship between our nations and the connection and spirit of kinship can only become that much stronger by the real challenges and questions Mother Nature has now asked of all human societies around the world.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

BP Aftermath

Knock wood that there will only be an absolute minimum of oil spilt hereafter from the Deep Water Horizon Disaster.

That said, a quick reckoning, and I think the Obama Admin got this right:

My assumptions-- A leak of 80K BBL per Day with a straight line 1% reduction over 86 days to define the various captures, ruptures, and miscillaneous unknown variables (unless BP would like to submit the actual data, instead of somehow going from 1000BBL to 5000BBL to as much as 80000BBL per day-- I feel this method is fair); The fine is $4300 per barrel per day that such oil remains uncleaned;

What we come up with is just about $20BB as of today... BP you better get to cleaning!

(Here is my worksheet [sorry it didn't come out that great, but gotta go]:

Days BBL/dayTOTAL BBLs in MM gal Fine in $MM TOT Fine $BB
1 80000 80000 3.36 $344.00 $0.34
2 79200 159200 6.69 $684.56 $0.68
3 78408 237608 9.98 $1,021.71 $1.02
4 77624 315232 13.24 $1,355.50 $1.36
5 76848 392080 16.47 $1,685.94 $1.69
6 76079 468159 19.66 $2,013.08 $2.01
7 75318 543477 22.83 $2,336.95 $2.34
8 74565 618042 25.96 $2,657.58 $2.66
9 73820 691862 29.06 $2,975.01 $2.98
10 73081 764943 32.13 $3,289.26 $3.29
11 72351 837294 35.17 $3,600.36 $3.60
12 71627 908921 38.17 $3,908.36 $3.91
13 70911 979832 41.15 $4,213.28 $4.22
14 70202 1050033 44.10 $4,515.14 $4.52
15 69500 1119533 47.02 $4,813.99 $4.82
16 68805 1188338 49.91 $5,109.85 $5.11
17 68117 1256454 52.77 $5,402.75 $5.41
18 67435 1323890 55.60 $5,692.73 $5.70
19 66761 1390651 58.41 $5,979.80 $5.99
20 66093 1456744 61.18 $6,264.00 $6.27
21 65433 1522177 63.93 $6,545.36 $6.55
22 64778 1586955 66.65 $6,823.91 $6.83
23 64130 1651086 69.35 $7,099.67 $7.11
24 63489 1714575 72.01 $7,372.67 $7.38
25 62854 1777429 74.65 $7,642.95 $7.65
26 62226 1839655 77.27 $7,910.52 $7.92
27 61603 1901258 79.85 $8,175.41 $8.18
28 60987 1962246 82.41 $8,437.66 $8.45
29 60378 2022623 84.95 $8,697.28 $8.71
30 59774 2082397 87.46 $8,954.31 $8.96
31 59176 2141573 89.95 $9,208.76 $9.22
32 58584 2200157 92.41 $9,460.68 $9.47
33 57998 2258156 94.84 $9,710.07 $9.72
34 57418 2315574 97.25 $9,956.97 $9.97
35 56844 2372418 99.64 $10,201.40 $10.21
36 56276 2428694 102.01 $10,443.39 $10.45
37 55713 2484407 104.35 $10,682.95 $10.69
38 55156 2539563 106.66 $10,920.12 $10.93
39 54604 2594168 108.96 $11,154.92 $11.17
40 54058 2648226 111.23 $11,387.37 $11.40
41 53518 2701744 113.47 $11,617.50 $11.63
42 52983 2754726 115.70 $11,845.32 $11.86
43 52453 2807179 117.90 $12,070.87 $12.08
44 51928 2859107 120.08 $12,294.16 $12.31
45 51409 2910516 122.24 $12,515.22 $12.53
46 50895 2961411 124.38 $12,734.07 $12.75
47 50386 3011797 126.50 $12,950.73 $12.96
48 49882 3061679 128.59 $13,165.22 $13.18
49 49383 3111062 130.66 $13,377.57 $13.39
50 48889 3159951 132.72 $13,587.79 $13.60
51 48400 3208352 134.75 $13,795.91 $13.81
52 47916 3256268 136.76 $14,001.95 $14.02
53 47437 3303706 138.76 $14,205.93 $14.22
54 46963 3350669 140.73 $14,407.88 $14.42
55 46493 3397162 142.68 $14,607.80 $14.62
56 46028 3443190 144.61 $14,805.72 $14.82
57 45568 3488758 146.53 $15,001.66 $15.02
58 45112 3533871 148.42 $15,195.64 $15.21
59 44661 3578532 150.30 $15,387.69 $15.40
60 44215 3622747 152.16 $15,577.81 $15.59
61 43773 3666519 153.99 $15,766.03 $15.78
62 43335 3709854 155.81 $15,952.37 $15.97
63 42901 3752756 157.62 $16,136.85 $16.15
64 42472 3795228 159.40 $16,319.48 $16.34
65 42048 3837276 161.17 $16,500.29 $16.52
66 41627 3878903 162.91 $16,679.28 $16.70
67 41211 3920114 164.64 $16,856.49 $16.87
68 40799 3960913 166.36 $17,031.93 $17.05
69 40391 4001304 168.05 $17,205.61 $17.22
70 39987 4041291 169.73 $17,377.55 $17.39
71 39587 4080878 171.40 $17,547.77 $17.57
72 39191 4120069 173.04 $17,716.30 $17.73
73 38799 4158868 174.67 $17,883.13 $17.90
74 38411 4197280 176.29 $18,048.30 $18.07
75 38027 4235307 177.88 $18,211.82 $18.23
76 37647 4272954 179.46 $18,373.70 $18.39
77 37270 4310224 181.03 $18,533.96 $18.55
78 36898 4347122 182.58 $18,692.62 $18.71
79 36529 4383651 184.11 $18,849.70 $18.87
80 36163 4419814 185.63 $19,005.20 $19.02
81 35802 4455616 187.14 $19,159.15 $19.18
82 35444 4491060 188.62 $19,311.56 $19.33
83 35089 4526149 190.10 $19,462.44 $19.48
84 34739 4560888 191.56 $19,611.82 $19.63
85 34391 4595279 193.00 $19,759.70 $19.78
86 34047 4629326 194.43 $19,906.10 $19.93 )

Saturday, May 29, 2010

The Shame of Big Oil

Here is the rhetorical question: Imagine if you will the Blob from the 1950's movie of the same title, and it was sweeping the streets removing only the gas stations, refineries, offices, and production facilities of every oil company that existed in five states.

How much money would the oil industry collectively spend to stop the Blob? How fast would that private action (without any help [or probably permission] from the Government-at-large) be done?

Now, if instead of "blob," we read massive uncontrolled oil gusher; we replace the streets with the Gulf of Mexico; and instead of oil companies we read: every fisherman, much of the tourism, a lot of recreational dollars, and the future health of millions of people-- not to mention the immense and incalculable devastation to our aquatic creatures and ecosystems-- we must wonder.

Is it not in every oil companies interest to assist in solving this problem ASAP so as to be able to have opportunity at future access to public waters?

As for BP: It was different to hear within the first days of this tragedy, that BP will honor all reasonable economic claims. That said, sending claimants out to help with the clean up and containment without proper safety (equipment, training, resources, etc.) is in some ways worse, because then they shall have several claims as a class action: (1) economic, and (2) health.

It seems there will probably be many levels of costs for BP, Halliburton, et. al.: (A) immediate, (B) long-term, (C) Criminal claims, (D) Civil penalties, and (E) future opportunity costs.

I also want to make the statement that this situation is not as advertised or spun, "Obama's Katrina." Bush got a four day notice, and if memory serves did nothing for an additional four or so days. When he did it was to reassure people, as opposed to acknowledge the tragedy. That tin ear populism was what created (along with catch phrases like, "heckuva job Brownie,") the sink hole of political legitimacy for Bush.

Pubs and haters praying for this to suddenly be Obama's Katrina are going with the old 'argumentum ad naseum,' again, but more startling is their admission that in this (and on several other issues like the economy) matter their last leader with a fully stacked Pub Congress flubbed on issue after issue. I think with the foot falling and the Tea Parties it is clear that the Pubs havent gotten out of circular firing squad formation quite yet....

This situation was precipitated by the Bushies, and the only problem I have with Obama (Administration) is that they did not catch the paper tiger collusion between MMS and Big Oil before it came to this.

So, now as far as I am concerned, we the people must ask the oil companies to verify and prove the statements they made in writing to our governmental bodies in order to acquire permits. If they claim this situation happens only once every 30 years, then they must show they have what it takes to either improve techniques and/or possess the technological wherewithal to mitigate even the slightest damage to our public lands and natural resources.

As far as I am concerned, even the fishermen are missing the bigger picture: they should not just ask for a years wages, or another job... What about charging wholesale prices for every pound of shrimp, dolphins, fish, crabs, clams, crawdads, mollusk, etc. that has been "eaten" by this blob; and what about all the future costs for the billions of creatures that have been aborted in this man made catastrophe facilitated by a chain of fools.

Finally, it is hard to write this knowing I am on track to have to fill up at the gas station in about a week. We are all conspirators at some level of this tragedy, but imagine how much this will cost the tax payers total. It is probably a very incalculable number like say $208,972,340,000.00, just to pick one out of the hat. We have dozens of these rigs out there. If we would just spend that $208,972,340,000.00 x 12 to facilitate electric cars, improved clean technology, solar, and wind, then would we not be in this mess when the next one is due in thirty years or less?

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The New Plague



Ahh... 1346. It was not really the best of times, but probably could be in many ways the worst of times. Europe was attempting to shudder off the dark Ages, but that would come in another 200 years or so!


In the meantime, the process of mass animal domestication and production techniques had brought a bevy of diseases into the fore to attack the immune systems in the rural areas, and if that didn't travel past city walls, inside most cities the streets in these population centers served as open sewers!


Once sick, people would pray for you, doctors would make potions to calm your humours, and in extreme desperation you could get a barber to let some blood if the mercury tincture the doctors prescribed didn't work... What backwards times!


Unfortunately, in the intervening 663 years or so, we humans haven't seemed to learn our lessons very well!


(A) the process of mass animal domestication and production techniques had brought a bevy of diseases into the fore to attack the immune systems NOW: H1N1, H5N1, et. al.


(B) most population centers served as open sewers! If we consider that we know that toxic chemicals are analogous to "waste" back in the 14th Century; Then why have we out-moded labelling of toxic chemicals used daily, allow these and industrial chemical to be released in our water, air, and lands, and literally have a garbage island floating in our oceans killing food resources we rely upon?


(C) people would pray for you, NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT... I guess-- other than not too much has changed.


(D) doctors would make potions to calm your humours, NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT... I guess-- other than not too much has changed.


(E) in extreme desperation you could get a barber to let some blood
NOW: Except it is the Doctors who actually cut you up.


(F) if the mercury tincture the doctors prescribed didn't work NOW: Instead of various quicksilver and herbal tinctures we have chemical therapy, and other methods to poison the patient back into health.


Lets be clear, I am stating that (I) we are spewing poisons into our environment that (II) directly or indirectly lead to the creation of Cancer and other diseases, and (III) our medicine is confounded searching for remedy and cures (obviously the last 600+ years has seen dramatic improvement in medicine [which is a very good thing that we are doing our best to mitigate the situation] however for the point made here we are still attempting to cure symptoms as opposed to causes of illness). Yet if we confront the source of our problems (equivalent to underground sewage, sewage treatment, regular washing and bathing, and certain sanitary practices helped solve the Black Death), maybe we would have fewer, less virulent, and less aggressive strains of the modern version of disease we have been carrying through our human history?


Barring my Meta-behaviouralists social modification approach, we need to raise funds to assist our researchers, doctors, and practicianers to discover cures for these diseases.


So, as you can see in the upper left-hand corner of my Blog, there is a place for you to donate to the LLS. I am a member of Team In Training. Please act now to donate what you can: I am running the half marathon, so a $25 donation today works out to less than $2 per mile! THANK YOU.


My friend survived non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma when I was a pre-teen; My brother died at age 36 from an aggressive metastasisized prostate Cancer that used as one of its tactics treatment developed by LLS; and now I learn that my childhood hero Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has a rare form of blood borne Cancer.


To complete the puzzle of my adamance and disgust with the very existence of this disease called Cancer (which is really a wide array of diseases that have similar attack strategies against the healthy human body), I learned the day of my last blog that my sister has stage three breast cancer-- she is only 38!


In a prior post, I suggest we declare war on Cancer, and now I am no longer waiting for the politicians, or anyone else for that matter to do so... to quote the Bard, "Out Damn Spot!"

Sunday, April 12, 2009

WIN-WIN Paradigms: Taking two bad situations to create one good one....

In my latest book, I attempt to describe how we can create "win-win" games to improve our collective economic and social issues.

Here is a suggestions in that spirit:

According to the BLS fishery jobs will decrease 26% from 2006 ~ 2016; According to FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Pacific Fish cath is down; and the CA Dept. of Fish and Game have all but ended Salmon Fishing until the Salmon crisis is over.

Between fuel costs, mooring fees, and insurance many anglers are going (if not already) out of business.

Mean while there is the seemingly discombobulated issue of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch which is a massive swirl of garbage and pollution moving across deep seas causing untold damage to the environment.

Let's put two and two together here, shall we. I am not saying that I can say at the scientifically infallible level that there is a cause and effect relationship here, but I have an economic argument which bypasses any "study to death" mentality:

A coalition of Governments, Fisheries, and Labor organizations employ our idle fleets of fishing vessels to go out to the Garbage Island(s), fish the polluting plastics and garbage out from our oceans, bring them back to a taxi stand of trash barges, and we barge that waste back onto terra firma to be sorted, recycled if possible, and disposed of so that we stop the detriment to our oceans.


The employment, the economic benefits, not to mention the possible (although I would argue probable) improvement in fish catch will all go towards our economic recovery.