Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Intergenerational Overlapping and the Oncoming New Age of Reason


Population Asymmetry

I.               From about 1965, we can observe the beginning of geometric population growth.  This indicates the beginning of “overpopulation,” or more accurately the asymmetry from increased births, greater longevity, and fewer preventable deaths from ancient norms.  This problem has begun to grow exponentially.


Crisis Nodes

II.             Although there are many other wars, conflicts, strifes to be considered, for our purposes of American History, and our nations birth in 1776, we observe six modern nodes of crisis:
a.     US Civil War
b.     The Great War
c.     WWII
d.     Moon Landing
e.     End of the Soviet Empire
f.      Beginning of Modern Information-based (Internet) Democracy


Era Names

III.           After the Age of Reason: Ironically, we inhabited the great genocide of America, and endured the pestilence of human slavery.  The zugzwang of the International Age of Industry required our participation in social norms, but as a nation not healed from the bitter civil conflict.  Our modern American identity was forged by the great European war where the conception of nationhood and nationalism forced us to unite.  The fourth era is so named the Age of Economy because this was the practical application of all the great theories, and became the natural growth of nations to once again end this era in another great mechanized war.  After the hard and bitter lessons of grand mechanical warfare a more indirect, yet no less vicious, period of proxy warfare began, and the emblem of the two great Superpowers was that of Space.  After America ostensibly won that war of symbolism, then an age of covert and more indirect paroxysm began in earnest to complete the defeat of the Soviet Union entirely.  Leaving an age of one Superpower left with all the various agents who would attempt to interact with, transform or gain from her.  We have entered an age where the conception of power is being transformed, not just by the application of ideas, but the ideals and ideas being transmitted by these transformational devices we participate with regularly in this era.


Node Zero

IV.           In American History we begin in the first thirty years of Simultaneous Corinthian Rebirth (CR), a creative destruction for survival, and the a ten year Birth;
a.     1760 – Doric Construction of Revolution
b.     1770 – Ionic Construction of Revolution
c.     1780 – Corinthian Construction of Revolution
d.     1790 – Birth of the Stable State (where the act of Revolution has been harnessed in active creation-destruction process we call government)
                                                     i.     1790 – 1793 sub doric: The King as President
                                                      ii.     1793 – 1796 sub ionic: The Various Powers
                                                        iii.     1796 – 1799 sub corinthian: The Reasonable Transitions

Generational Nodes

V.             After the Reasonable Institutionalization of Revolution, began the formation of parties and other emblematic themes, which allowed for the construction and destruction of ideas of governance and administration of law through institutional process, however this does not dismiss the massive genocide being conducted until 1974 upon the lands of what was to become territory of these United States of America.  Following Jefferson and a Revolution every generation (30 years):
a.     Rebirth (Transformational Period [Ricorso])
b.     Doric (Construction of Foundations)
c.     Ionic (Building of the Constructs)
d.     Corinthian (Decoration and Edifice)

Sub-Nodes

VI.           Confusing the issue, but now more clear with the benefit of oversimplification, is the illusion of cohort or sub-nodes within generations.  These do not attribute a “rebirth” sub-period, for the natural[1] progeneration of each individual, cohort, or generation is the very act of biological rebirth.


Primary Technological Achievement

VII.         At the advent of every new generation, there appears a clear signal from the prior generation as to how to better evolve the technology of our environment for survival and progress.  Although these are simplifications of the overarching achievement of the times, there are innumerable simultaneous progresses in every subject matter in order to allow for other generations to unlock achievements.  As with Node Zero, we find ourselves (at “node 8”) where the cumulative progress in every Scientific endeavor has come to fruition in every discipline—the start of a time of Science and Reason!

Longevity Asymmetry

VIII.       By Node Six, The Baby Boom Generation, Children were observing the first human cohorts to live into their 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s, in spite of the two great mechanical wars.  We entered into a node in 1999 where children being born until 2029 will observe human cohorts living into their 90’s, 100’s, and beyond (the estimated stabilization for longevity to become living naturally into 120 ~ 140 y.o., and with medicines and technologies 140+)!


Conclusion

The Population Asymmetry, Progenitor Asymmetry and the Longevity Asymmetry require from the intergenerational populace a sense of civility and abiding peace that are necessary for collective security.  We enter an era of unprecedented potentiality for every human being alive today, and have one of the best chances ever to enshrine Ethics, Liberty and Human Rights for the sanctity of all future generations.


Hypothesis

We will not be able to afford to not cooperate as a human species (as opposed to nation, or other group) upon this Earth, and the upside becomes material and quality of life gains from cooperation that will far outweigh perceived negatives.

The confluence of all these human events shall describe
1.     A grander sense of the Collective Consciousness and Higher Awareness
2.     More sublime and civil forms of diplomacy and warfare
3.     A concept of collective endeavor that will produce a massive efficiency, which we are already encountering


MAJOR EFFORTS FOR FUTURE NODES

Future Nodal Targets

A.    Commercial Space Travel
B.    Electricity Harmonization (We are in Node E1 and starting E2.  By E3 we will be at the edge of Robotic Sentience)
C.    Oceanic Mastery (deep water craft and body suits)
D.   Environmental Stasis (estimate Node I Env. will sustain up to 12BB pop.; Node II Env 16BB; and Node III 30+BB)
E.    Robotic Sentience
F.    Interplanetary Colonization
G.   Intergalactic Exploration / Deep Space Mastery
H.   Solar System Mastery
I.      Inter Solar System Colonization
J.     Galactic Mastery
K.   Intergalactic Mastery
L.    Intergalactic Colonization


Note:
            “Arab Spring,” is the current term to describe the actions of societies, many in the Arab States, gaining 21st Century Technology at low or no cost and being able to organize democratically with instantaneous communications and information systems.  This will probably be referred to as the International Accurate Democracy Movement, or something thereabouts, because we also find ourselves in USA, amidst the advent of the ramifications of this technological advance and all that this implies.



[1] The Progenitor Asymmetry would be when genes can be spawned multi-generationally (even after the subject has expired)

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Update

So I haven't been anywhere in Cyberspace for well over a month... I barely had time and energy to make that little quip about Cheney.

Reason why: I have completed the first draft and first edit of a two hundred (or so) page book on Macro Economics.

The book is meant to be readable and modestly entertaining, but in fact is an exposition in Philosophical thought on economics which allows the reader to follow an argument I have been thinking for over twenty years now, but had allowed myself to be convinced by the "trickle-downers" that theirs was a system that worked.

Well that horse has left the barn, and the fly in the ointment is a obvious as the emperors new clothes. Sorry, had to puke out a couple of over used cliches, which I tried to avoid in the book, with the exception of two, for which I directly apologize to the reader having (in less than one months writing) only come up with those relatively apt descriptions to hasten the readability.

I would have loved to spend ten years instead writing some needlessly complex book which makes obscure and practical example of the thought so espoused in this work, but morally I felt the compuncture to instead make an effort to shift the dialogue we are presently trapped in with our current economic state of affairs.

All that said, I am hanging in there, wish you all the best, and hope to publish the book as a final draft by March.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Memo from the Peanut Gallery to President Elect Obama's Economic Team

There are a multitude of complex issues to grapple with which separate and as a whole are unprecedented.

Great minds and scholars have been hard pressed for solid answers amidst the crisis.

So the few relevant words from a man who has barely cobbled a career from giving advice on real estate, mortgages, and finance is probably pretty low on any priority list, let alone item on the agenda.

Yet here in my own fantasy world known as my blog, I first have to point out this item from June 26th, which clearly defines some of the precipitous issues as it relates to market speculation and its forthcoming consequences as warned in other articles.

Next I would like to point out this article/commentary from 2007 which illustrates clearly the point of view of a humble and honest broker well before the Fannie-Freddy debacle.

And as this is my first commentary on economics and policy since the events of September 15th (a day which will live in infamy), please let me first make plain my assessment of the outgoing W administration, and secondarily the up shot of the Republican's as leadership:

1. The Soviet Union was founded upon less of a Nationalization of private wealth than as what has occurred in the "bailout" package.

2. Unlike the Soviets overtaking means for Production, this is similar to the mulligan that Enron took (Bankruptcy protection) after siphoning off billions of dollars from consumers and state purchasers (notably California).

3. If I was to make the argument that the solution(s) posited by the W administration's Paulson to Republican/Conservative people any time in my life starting in 1970 through to the "Bail out package," I would be considered a 'Commie,' 'Pinko,' or at best 'Looney Liberal.' Luckily I dont believe this is the best solution, although a necessary minimum of confidence was restored to the capital markets.

4. Although anti-free marketers are quick to assert this is proof that its a failure of free market concepts, unfortunately its not quite that simple. True free market principles would then suggest that we allow Wall Street to shatter into a million pieces, and allow the Phoenix of the Invisible Hand to rise from those ashes. The risk of Anarchy, Revolution, and War should not be a hinderance to those stoutest in defense of these principlea.

Rather what has happened is that the curtain has been unveiled upon the Wizard of Oz. Or more accurately Wizards: Power Elite; Ultra Rich; Super Rich; and their operatives... and as Gomer Pyle would say, "Sooprize sooprize," the W administration fits neatly into that last category (if not others).



The doctrine known as "free market," and, often as not, ascribed to as "trickle down," has been a fallacy waiting to happen since I took Economics in 1986 from my perspective. The fallacy is that the pitch (or soccer field to define the metaphor more readily) is absolutely not level (a lack of transparency of markets, trades, and companies-- let alone parity amongst status of trading parties), everyone knows this, but the referees (power elite) assure us that indeed the market is trading at a free clip, and they are doing their best to weed out the inept and destructive government (singular as in government is bad) in order to get back to those players to whom that unfair pitch advantage works against.

It is, like many convincing fallacies, a perfect ecosystem of utter nonsense.

What was revealed when the Wizard came out from behind the curtain?

The rules of the road were designed to insulate power elites from those market forces that every small business owner (not suckling directly from the teat of one or more of the power elite) faces yearly, monthly, daily, hourly, and even at a moment by moment level, wherein one bad decision can have the whole house of cards tumble down on them, their employees, and their families.

Perfect capitalism for 96% of the business owners in America, and pure communism for the ~4% that retain ~92% of the wealth and direction of capital.

The main difference here? That fallacy of "perfect" and "free" markets has been unmasked. For me it doenst make me less of a Keynesian or Miltonian (of which I am only some part in either case), rather confirms the sound logic of truth found within the mathematical models.

For all practical reasons, it wasnt the theories that were flawed, rather the implementation of those theories. You dont go golfing with Tiger Woods, and on holes 3, 7, and 12 receive a "0" on your score (an impossibility), then go on to say you bested Tiger Woods at Augusta for the Championship!

For lack of a simpler explanation that is what Corporate America has been doing for decades!

My Miltonian Tax suggestion of reducing tax paperwork to the size of a postcard, is premised on the fact that massive corporations with armies of lawyers can end up getting paid by the government, whereas the business owner will typically pay between 12 and 44% of GROSS EARNINGS in a profitable year to the Government!

LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD, PLEASE!!!

So, what are my suggestions?

A. Simple, Fair, and Flat Tax for individuals, businesses, and everyone and everything in between. I think if you make annually inflation adjusted exemption provisions for the first $22K individually, $38K jointly, $6K per child, and $40K for business plus $6K per employee, then a 13% flat across the board on first moneys and profits tax should suffice to amply maintain the Federal treasury. Double tax only counts in certain specific cases, but honestly the concept of a "double tax" is in itself a product of the Labyrinthine tax laws themselves. Simple, plain, and honest: You earn money, invest it and make more... you are taxed on the money you earn. So called "death" tax is a myth, and any exemption should be put onto a matrix which allows for inflation and number of legatees, but otherwise massive fortunes do need to have the same 13% (a lowering of current complex statues) flat tax after expemptions upon transfer of estate.

B. All regulation needs to be put into Plain English. There needs to be a rule book for all people that everyone who speaks a 7th grade level of English can understand, but moreover, each field of employ and oversight needs a smaller and comprehensive annual rule book for the relevant profession(s). If you are a Stock Broker, for instance, the SEC needs to publish a Plain English Guide to all relevant laws (including definitions of crime and punishment) which is the basis for testing and licensure. How do we expect companies to follow laws their people couldnt understand without a law degree? This will facilitate whistleblowing, self governance, and enforcement. (On that note free markets if given clear straight, and bright lines do have the ability to self govern.)

C. International Harmonization. Its well time to beat our swords into plowshares. NATO can also be an economic body which assists in (a la Bretton-Woods) harmonizing economic functions. Why limit it to NATO? Trade Areas can work, and do work. However, just as we need to (for lack of a better word) admit that NATO is also an economic force, we also need to create Fair Standards in order to proceed honestly with our Trading Partners-- applying that standard basket of goods (environment, civil rights, and labor standards) as a preset disposition for negotiations. If any free trading regions partners can all agree to certain basic workers rights, then there is no price advantage to using slave or child labor in order to queer the productivity quotients and balances. This esoteric set of ideas (which I have simply called Fair Standards) is the nutshell of why we have lost so many jobs over seas-- not just "tax advantages" as certain groups would have you believe.

D. Mortgage Relief. I will be writing a more defined explanation of this soon, but here it is in the nutshell version. There are many of the steps necessary to implement a comprehensive relief in place under the current "bailout" plans passed, but my addition would be EVERYONE NEEDS TO FEEL SOME OF THE PAIN. Borrowers should still be on the hook for the full amount of the mortgage when enjoying payment reduction, Lenders should be on the hook to not get their money back in time, and all the middlemen, servicing agencies, and investors need to accept such bi-lateral intervention (as negotiated in mathematical formulation by the FFT [Fannie-Freddy-Treasury] guidelines and agents) regardless of how much money they stand to lose-- BECAUSE THEY ARE JUST MIDDLEMEN! Investors, sorry, but tough turkeys, you put money on those bets, were told the money was at risk, otherwise the SEC and FBI can arrest the brokers for non-disclosure... that said I think most licensees put investment disclosures on their business cards (a financial industry joke). The Government should tread very lightly in using its power to "renegotiate" existing agreements, and that said it is the Lenders right to refuse a renegotiation and foreclose... otherwise we strip Rule of Law (and contracts).

E. Stimulus. See my article on what we can do with the money we save by ending the War. more... more....

Just my two cents.... you can pay me later.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Punting

Punt: A kick in which the ball is dropped from the hands and kicked before it touches the ground. What the Fed did this week.

Punt: Chiefly British Slang. To gamble. What has been happening to Oil and Gas futures.

Strong criticism today;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml

Echoing the RBS warning;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

Right or wrong there was no way the Fed would win. There has been a systematic abuse of the available market levers by the Fed (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1429.html), aside from searching for and getting (http://www.mutualofamerica.com/articles/CapMan/March08/econperspec308.asp) more smoke or mirrors, they are attempting to get a couple of other tools; http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/19/afx5133293.html

If the Fed is a farmer, then it has water (interest rates) and fertilizer (government bonds). If the weather doesn't cooperate, then it is possible to have a bad crop. Expanding the metaphor, somewhere along the way people got confused and thought the central bank could control the weather.

Amidst all the other doom and gloom... We are officially in Lemming Tortoise Mode.

Allow me to elaborate. In markets, there is a herd mentality. Markets are in part or whole psychological, for instance, it is estimated the supply-demand quotient for a barrel of oil is actually about 70 ~ 75 $/bbl, as opposed to its market value of 140 ~ 150 $/bbl, or about 50%. In other words half the cost of oil is market psychology.

To get into some finer points, many would argue that only some of this psychological half is pure panic, fear, or irrationality, and they come up with ideas like "risk premium," as a fancy way of saying that the Nigerians and Venezuelans may stuff up the supply demand balance-- still fear to me, just slightly more fact based fear. Watch the Secretary General of OPEC deny the supply issue;



And just to assuage the markets the Saudis agreed (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Minister_Saudi_Arabia_can_increase_oil_0622.html) to yet again increase the supply of oil (no mind that USA refineries are at capacity). So what the hell is going on here?

One mans humble opinion (my speculation to the speculators) dont be the last batch of lemmings off the cliff. Speculators are driving the dark market for oil futures, creating scarcity of PAPER NOT OIL! Those last batch(es) of paper-buyers, whomever they may be or become, and this event may be gradual, or sudden, and may take a week, or a year, will be left covering the short on all those futures. The real price of oil has already pooled massive amounts of money to the big corporations for years and years.

Tortoise and the Hare.

Big money, real money, old money, and their followers who tend to also have large pools of money have long ago retreated from many segments of the market. Like lemmings they buy when the market is up, and sell when the market is down... When one goes they mostly all go, hence lemmings... and in spite of government adjusted numbers the smart money understands we are already in a technical recession;

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

The market is down, and most of the liquidity is Safely tucked away in secure issues with minimal risk... in one version of Tortoise Mode, or another.

In Tortoise Mode the banking families go into their wheel house and invest in banking, the real estate families start land banking, and the oil companies... (hate to paint individuals with the following broad and unsavory brush) well lets just say their presidency is coming to an un-sanctimonious end. This means for a limited time only, there is an opportunity to (a) get "no-bid" contracts from the government in Iraq (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/world/middleeast/19iraq.html?hp); (b) run up the price for gas on the claim that gas prices are contingent upon oil prices, supply is tight for oil, and demand exceeds supply for gas; (c) not having to parry market forces, and this is evidenced by their well known and publicly traded record profits (and to any who would call themselves a true free-market capitalist I defy you to explain why the oil companies collectively haven't had to absorb the "production costs" of inflated prices for oil like any other producer in the open market [and by the way where is the competition {you know the gas company that charges less for lower quality gas, etc.}]); and (d) I speculate that there is a re-infusion of some of this massive capital into these dark oil markets that are unregulated, and will be until something is done to turn the light on in the kitchen and watch the cockroaches scurry: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/24/news/economy/oil_legislation/?postversion=2008062413

On this last point, it may take a month, but, probably, like the disappointing Supreme Court ruling against Exxon (where there was almost no punitive damages for the systemic criminal negligence in the Valdez spill), more like a decade or two to fully gather the facts and complete the prosecution of those traders and the speculators who are most probably buying a long call position, and then using some of their anticipated profits to pump up the market price... for the rest of those lemmings.

O, yes, real people, buying real options, in real markets, are making real money here because of this play (or series of plays). And I am totally in the dark from this humble vantage to guess as if this is just a perfect storm, coincidence, or any magnitude of conspiracy. And it doesn't matter. The laws are out of kilter, and I suggest we are witnessing the last act of a corrupt and powerful lobby that has had an administrations ear, which opened with the effusion of billions and billions of dollars from the California Economy in 2001 with the ENRON scandal.

Make your money while you can boys, because if you are the one holding those last call contracts for any penny over the real value of oil even one day after the market begins to correct itself (pending sanity, legislation, and possibly requisite a new administration).... well lets just say thats definitely something to worry about!