There was a fascinating moment when I was first in Japan back in 1997, and I
entered the post office.
A world of not just stamps, but bill pay, basic banking, insurance, and
connection to other government resources all in one place. Denver has 311 for
some of the latter, for instance.
By then I had a private bank account, but today's American could use proper
passbook savings in USA, and basic simple fee checking accounts in lieu of
non-banking 'card' services, also called non-traditional banking alternatives?
Under this idea, anyone could walk in and open up an account.
Further, the insurance we could provide US citizens were we to take up this
different vision, would be basic coverage to drive, rent, or even buy a simple
government backed life insurance policy that wouldn't lapse, and could always be
redeemed.
Not just collecting stamps, our post office could be a front line remedy for any
bill collectors- allowing the payor ample time and space to drop by the local
Post office, and maybe pay from the PO savings account they held.
Alloting this preferred treatment, the Post office will have the ability to
operate at a nominal and marginal profit, not reliant upon stamp and shipping
costs to sustain income.
Finally, Amazon, Fed Ex, and other services should be sent to the back of the
pile with priority given to paychecks, pensions and paperwork that the current
go-go e-forms of the dont read just click "ok" culture will eventually be slowed
with discovery of the law.
Such to say we need to get rid of the current Postmaster General, and get the
business of ordinary people done fairly and on time, expanding the very
definition of the public postal offices.
Been meaning to write that for two
dozen years.
Showing posts with label Budgetary Managment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Budgetary Managment. Show all posts
Sunday, February 27, 2022
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Job's, Jobs, jobs
The Book of Job in the Bible famously demonstrates the bet between Satan and God as to whether a true devotee can be made to foreswear the Lord.
Of course, after brutal trials, Job, eventually, liberated from false attachments finally receives the full blessing from Life having turned away from Temptations.
Sad, that the eponymous word for Livelihood, is slang for Faustian Test. So, every day in employment is a challenge from Hell, under that thinking?
Too bad.
We need to rethink entirely the nature of Livelihood. What is your pre-occupation, your occupation and animus where you are of highest and best use to Society, with the least cost to your health, wealth and soul.
Many people facing this Pandemic Crisis in the economy, like me, are reassessing what arethe actual Jobs and Job descriptions of the future going to become?
That said, before we earnestly discuss the Green New Deal, or any other Major Effort, let’s re-enshrine the Bill of Rights with a little history tour of how we come to the arrangement of being totally dependent upon a $14/hr. worker for distribution of goods and services that may have become so urgent, important and valuable, because of the exaggerated and impacted resource availability problems.
In 1215, The Lord descended from Heaven, signed a piece of paper with the Dukes and Barons of England, and admitted He was a human King. Every squire, knave, groom and peasant within a Mile of Runnymede was promptly murdered for having witnessed the event.
From there, democracy in the modern American sense was born. Flash cut to 250 years later, or there about, and we have the fundamental flaw in our Agrarian-style macro-economic theory. A Serf is born, and he will be raised, live, then die as an attached beast of the land. Probably not leaving to the capital London if once, they remained within about a 20-mile radius from where they were born.
They were often classed into task groups, and seasonally or during crisis tasks would be completely reassigned... all with little to no say by the Serf. They were beasts to be manipulated, resources to be controlled and conquered, and base value of the farmlands, as pheasants improve the value of the Royal Forests.
It is only in this 21stCentury where people have been born in ignorant bliss of Freedom and Liberty, and now are surprised by the hard and cruel facts of geopolitical macroeconomics.
The contrasts in this era are probably as about as stark as they may have ever been, only because they have never been more observable, simultaneously and worldwide.
So, the replay of the signing of the Magna Carta would have been videoed, and upon further review a human who was dressed as King signed a piece of paper.
Myths are being destroyed every day, and life can be very grim.
So, in redesigning and repurposing your livelihood, consider that your good work for other, hopefully helps to build a better future, a nicer present and a more pleasant understanding of the hard choices that came from the past.
We will get past all of this, because we process the economy individually and collectively, daily.
But, next time you get some fast food, now that the fragilities, weaknesses and errors of our macroeconomy are on display, maybe consider leaning on the tip. Tip a nurse or care worker; or bring them some flowers; or a soda. We humans are all in this together!
Not random acts of kindness, rather design your livelihood for purposeful kindnesses that you like to make and are good at doing.
Then maybe your jobwill just be a fair bargain with other people, without need for tests from outside powers?
Vision: Steady, safe and sane livelihoods; Multiple training pathways, nimble enough for lateral transfer, and ideally all correlated; and each employee with long-term prospects and full benefits.
What will you become in this trial?
Monday, December 4, 2017
(Original post, 1.28.08) Our Nation was founded during the Golden Age of Reason. We need a return to those core values.
Ben Franklin lobbied to have our National Symbol be the rattlesnake. We Agree. As much as we love our country and her Eagle, we have lost our way, and need Ben's Rattlesnake of Vigilance!
The Rattlesnake Party has five core values:
(1) Scientific Reason. A return to the primacy of Science as the basis for much of our decision making (including the Dismal Science of economics); Better Educational programs emphasizing Math, Science, Health, Logic, etc. to create a new generation of scientists, engineers and astronauts; and a Renaissance of Scientific Discovery which we are clearly on the verge of regardless of government funding-- however, we need to have ten to twenty "Apollo-style" projects to improve the climate, environment, science, space exploration, health, etc. (see more info.)
(2) Rule of Constitution. Reinstatement of habeas corpus; an end to unconstitutional practices by government; honoring the Bill of Rights; and expansion of those rights where applicable, when necessary. (see more info.)
(3) Plain English. All laws need to be written in plain English, if we expect to hold people and our Representatives accountable. The indecipherable nuances which the legal and governmental community create has driven us to the current state of affairs. This has led to corruption, cronyism, and quasi-legal corporate practices which leave the average American holding the can. (see more info.)
(4) Rule of Law. Once all laws are reorganized to say what they mean and mean what they say with plain English, a fair and consistent enforcement of such laws. Drug laws against addicts, Biased enforcement of laws as relates to race, ethnicity, or class, and unchecked Corporate crimes would come to a sudden halt. (see more info.)
(5) True Simple Flat Tax. A flat tax of 10% to all persons, entities (including corporations, and the like), and churches (which demonstrate a commercial surplus or profit) would generate ample treasure to the Government, reduce or eliminate the need for an IRS, save millions of man-hours and billions of dollars to improve productivity, reduce the tax burden on most people (rich and poor alike), and eliminate the corporate shenanigans which created such complex and labyrinthine tax codes in the first place. Although this would eliminate some Tax Preparation and Government jobs, we believe this would be made up for with the tremendous windfall to the Treasury due to a universal closure of loopholes. (see more info and more andmore.)
We are firm believers that there needs to be multi-party system and universal factions in Washington, DC. Our group is a Universal Faction designed to house any US Citizen of any affiliation, who agrees with part or, preferably, all of our ideals.
Ben Franklin lobbied to have our National Symbol be the rattlesnake. We Agree. As much as we love our country and her Eagle, we have lost our way, and need Ben's Rattlesnake of Vigilance!
The Rattlesnake Party has five core values:
(1) Scientific Reason. A return to the primacy of Science as the basis for much of our decision making (including the Dismal Science of economics); Better Educational programs emphasizing Math, Science, Health, Logic, etc. to create a new generation of scientists, engineers and astronauts; and a Renaissance of Scientific Discovery which we are clearly on the verge of regardless of government funding-- however, we need to have ten to twenty "Apollo-style" projects to improve the climate, environment, science, space exploration, health, etc. (see more info.)
(2) Rule of Constitution. Reinstatement of habeas corpus; an end to unconstitutional practices by government; honoring the Bill of Rights; and expansion of those rights where applicable, when necessary. (see more info.)
(3) Plain English. All laws need to be written in plain English, if we expect to hold people and our Representatives accountable. The indecipherable nuances which the legal and governmental community create has driven us to the current state of affairs. This has led to corruption, cronyism, and quasi-legal corporate practices which leave the average American holding the can. (see more info.)
(4) Rule of Law. Once all laws are reorganized to say what they mean and mean what they say with plain English, a fair and consistent enforcement of such laws. Drug laws against addicts, Biased enforcement of laws as relates to race, ethnicity, or class, and unchecked Corporate crimes would come to a sudden halt. (see more info.)
(5) True Simple Flat Tax. A flat tax of 10% to all persons, entities (including corporations, and the like), and churches (which demonstrate a commercial surplus or profit) would generate ample treasure to the Government, reduce or eliminate the need for an IRS, save millions of man-hours and billions of dollars to improve productivity, reduce the tax burden on most people (rich and poor alike), and eliminate the corporate shenanigans which created such complex and labyrinthine tax codes in the first place. Although this would eliminate some Tax Preparation and Government jobs, we believe this would be made up for with the tremendous windfall to the Treasury due to a universal closure of loopholes. (see more info and more andmore.)
We are firm believers that there needs to be multi-party system and universal factions in Washington, DC. Our group is a Universal Faction designed to house any US Citizen of any affiliation, who agrees with part or, preferably, all of our ideals.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Time for the California Oranjebüm?
ATTENTION: What if I could show you a way to fundamentally repair the credit markets, fiat currency, trade deficits and inter-state deficit precipitated by the Wall-Street Bailout?
Assumptions:
CA Received Federal Tax Dollars per Dollar Collected by the Federal Government as a Factor of 0.78 (http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsbs-timeseries-20071016-.pdf)
All Taxpayers as a class are owed interest, back fees, and other endured hardships by and from (and in some cases continue to receive) those selfsame Corporations received of that Expenditure.
CA has low bond-ratings by agencies with suspect objectives and motives that limit our ability to represent the true greatness of our burgeoning sciences in CA.
Answer:
In my open letter, disguised as a book, there is the principle of the "Second Level Market," where a State in the Union, without disrespect for any other State or the Federal Powers that be, can issue a Fiat based on some principled value or ordinary credit.
What if we estimated the value of some percentage of the next five years of Orange Crop; Issued a spend-able state run currency, which could be honored and legal tender within the borders of CA, and peggable to a state trust held Option in one of the Mid-West AG markets; and retire the Bond in fifteen years.
A modest proposal, but when The Governator was holding the gun to the State employees and the IOUs were issued! That was when I had this expanded thought upon my "book."
I conclude by suggesting that this simple device be retired at the Federal Bank in Manhattan—it could be in exchange for any deficit between the two states. Or we could use it to buy the Seed Crops from Holland once Hemp becomes Legal (in 2012)!
How's that for 'easier said than done?'
I will leave it to someone who understands these things to figure if I am right, wrong, or just a misguided semi-autodidact.
Assumptions:
CA Received Federal Tax Dollars per Dollar Collected by the Federal Government as a Factor of 0.78 (http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsbs-timeseries-20071016-.pdf)
All Taxpayers as a class are owed interest, back fees, and other endured hardships by and from (and in some cases continue to receive) those selfsame Corporations received of that Expenditure.
CA has low bond-ratings by agencies with suspect objectives and motives that limit our ability to represent the true greatness of our burgeoning sciences in CA.
Answer:
In my open letter, disguised as a book, there is the principle of the "Second Level Market," where a State in the Union, without disrespect for any other State or the Federal Powers that be, can issue a Fiat based on some principled value or ordinary credit.
What if we estimated the value of some percentage of the next five years of Orange Crop; Issued a spend-able state run currency, which could be honored and legal tender within the borders of CA, and peggable to a state trust held Option in one of the Mid-West AG markets; and retire the Bond in fifteen years.
A modest proposal, but when The Governator was holding the gun to the State employees and the IOUs were issued! That was when I had this expanded thought upon my "book."
I conclude by suggesting that this simple device be retired at the Federal Bank in Manhattan—it could be in exchange for any deficit between the two states. Or we could use it to buy the Seed Crops from Holland once Hemp becomes Legal (in 2012)!
How's that for 'easier said than done?'
I will leave it to someone who understands these things to figure if I am right, wrong, or just a misguided semi-autodidact.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
It is only a question of, "How Successful?"
I take the opportunity as history is unfolding to create the case for how to answer "how successful will Colorado's legalization be?"
We are almost at the end of the first quarter. The preliminary figures for the state indicate $2.1 million per month Recreational and about $1.4 million per month for medicinal.
Therefore, , Governor H. et. al., who opposes the purpose or promise, and cautiously enforces the will of the people and law, put out an estimate that the right was quick to glom upon saying that $137million is the revised estimate, not the projected $578million!
Disappointed??
Okay, so lets review the situation from the point of view of a Business Broker.
(A) Dispensaries and Recreational Dispensaries have the unique problem of being required by law to run an all cash business... only now being solved. If taxation requires compliance, but compliance means not opening up a Federally Insured account, then we have a reporting problem by definition!
Business operators famously keep poor records. They are involved in servicing their clients, meeting customer demand, and coordinating vendors. So, why do we expect the skill sets include math, accounting, or record keeping?
My experience reviewing hundreds of business opportunities over the years suggest that of the whole: 80% are well meaning but sloppy or contain some small errors; 10% are well kept; and 10% are just outright sad.
I think you must realize that most business owners are working ten hour days almost every day of every year. No matter how well intentioned, mistakes can be made. I would put bad actors at about 1 ~ 3% depending on how you define "bad."
Now try doing the whole thing as a cash basis accounting, with only cash. That adds burden at least, and for comparison if you legally compelled McDonalds, Verizon or Comcast to have to operate that way they would declare Bankruptcy overnight.
(B) January sales figures? Ever hear of "seasonally adjusted?" We have endless data about how the cold weather this winter has reduced retail activities across the board. This is only mitigated by the pent up demand, but there is also novelty effect to consider.
The pent up demand may skew the figure higher, but number of dispensaries was very limited. The novelty is a wash-- you would have customers who were trying it out to see what happens, and you would have regular clients possibly holding back to see how "safe" the situation appears. Therefore, the Season and travel prohibitions (not to mention that in January most licenses for Rec hadn't been approved.... most places are getting their permits in Summer) take the most weight for the adjustment.
So if adjustments are a push, and the skew goes to "January figures," we include that January will probably in five years time be known in the business cycle of Cannabis that January is typically an average month to the mean.
(C) I was wrong, or right it doesn't matter:
- One store that was permitted in CO on Jan 1, '14, reported off the record that they had sold approximately $250,000 in the first two weeks.
- from that anecdote I estimate ~$500MM in annual tax revenues for CO directly attributable to legalization! Closer to $1BB counting knockons
kilv
Okay, so if there are (A) underreporting and (B) adjustments, then we have to consider the truth of how accounting and valuations work... We wont have the actual final and adjusted January '14 numbers until July of 2015!!!
TIME TO PANIC?
Oh no, this really hasn't worked out... I guess this has just been a disappointing experiment in personal freedom and individual liberty.
I relented, now I ask critics of anti-prohibition to relent and admit that actually in these government projections they have met the threshold (where the first $40 million goes to schools) for revenue to run the program, the powers that be will have surplus to spread around, and once again, because Macroeconomics is so vastly complex and so mundanely precise, is an inaccurate art; that therefore any law that pays for itself, improves freedom and liberty, and pays for other state functions-- by definition in Business is a success!
MY PREDICTION?
I am going to hang my hat on the ~$170million mark as the definition for Rec Sales Tax of success. I will wait until July 2015 to see the whole picture, and then I will ask how the knock-on effects are calculated: employment, employees paying taxes, income generated being sent back into the economy; immigration; and other net benefits to the State.
I will point out that taken as a whole, the fuller effect, the net benefit to the economy will meet my prediction in my tweet, but again I am not that attached to how accurate my prognostication. That isn't my job!
The state probably has included to some effect the above considerations, but the willingness to structure the dialogue of a government program that not only pays for itself, but earns, as one of disappointment and failure is a non-starter for what will inevitably become the very early days of a multi billion dollar legitimate industry!
Thursday, February 21, 2013
4 years of low hanging fruit
Obama gave a somewhat inspired if not entirely exciting State of the Union.
The key notes I heard that I will hold him and the Democrats to account for in 4 years:
1. End the War
2. Universal pre-school
3. Access to benefits / retention of Obamacare-Social Security-Medicare
4. Improved Veterans Benefits
5. Active measures to improve the economy by improving Energy Independence and the Environment.
It is mostly on this last point that I will speak;
a. Tax Reform equals Environmental reform.
b. End subsidization of archane technologies and established players, back to investor of first and last resort.
c. Support STEMs in Education.
a. By closing loopholes in a conscientious and clear manner, there will no longer be a dispensation for making profit at all costs (where the environment takes the burden as resource and resolution).
Although not as clearly defined by the powers-that-be, the need for reform has a throughput onto the ideas introduced by Schumacher as Small is Beautiful. becomes that ecosystem and ecological thinking is in effect environmentally correct long-term economic development.
Obama was dancing at the edge of this thinking without removing any of his obvious commitments to the Corporate System.
However, a clever tax system will try to become clever by half playing "lets make a deal." The second step to truly resolving the Environmental equation for Cost-Benefit-Analysis is for holistic and conscientious Tort Reform. That is a hot potato in the Do Nothing Congress Part II we are effectively beginning to witness (although I am open to being wrong-- see Sequestration).
b. Corn Ethynol, Oil, and Fracking are all subsidized, although science clearly puts them in the back of the Carbon efficiency line (would that they list in order from most to least carbon efficient). That carbon efficiency in conjunction with time for development (with unlimited resources) should inform what priority to grant and burse the otherwise limited resources dedicated to Energy and Technology.
As mentioned, the investments by the people for the people are best as first and last resort-- like radio and other experimental technologies the US government and the people have been the ones who "built the railroad," not the tycoons who then scooped up and organized for profit the activities.
Hopefully in four years we will have sensibly realigned subsides so that the only thing big oil is getting is small relief for the retooling of extant refineries to become clean, non-polluting, and carbon efficient.
c. All other social concerns aside, and with the full-throated support of the scientifically true "first five," as we call early childhood development, education and care in California, the next step is to raise a generation not afraid to do math, believe in science, or be transparent in their actions as citizens.
It is not the government that will lead the inevitable democratization of truth, rather it is the people. Let's pay teachers what they are due for tending the most valuable natural resource we have, isn't it time?
I didn't hear a "socialist" argument as the Republicans over the decades are fond to label, rather a proactive agenda on education that accepted truths (like global warming) where for whatever reason the less than 1% of scientists disagree with the issue writ large (does climate change exist?).
A fact-based reality based education system will, informed by all the sciences and technologies, force a fundamental zugzwang by the Federal in favor of the local education officials-- and that is something I have heard every republican quick on the "commie," or "Socialist," trigger belly ache for power to rest in the local not Federal powers where education is concerned.
Yet, it was Bush II, who forced the random test driven multiple choice idiocracy called "no child left behind."
Incentivize the collaboration in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) with new and existing public-private relationships by also having the principles found in STEM, logic, and reason inform the process and development of this completely new world of education, knowledge, and technology, and any disadvantage from the retooling of our outmoded educational system (writ large) will fall away very quickly once children are given the access to tools already available-- just not very widely at time of publication.
Lets see if reason will spread like a disease in the next four years, or will we continue to appear as a gorilla chasing its tail to the rest of the world?
The key notes I heard that I will hold him and the Democrats to account for in 4 years:
1. End the War
2. Universal pre-school
3. Access to benefits / retention of Obamacare-Social Security-Medicare
4. Improved Veterans Benefits
5. Active measures to improve the economy by improving Energy Independence and the Environment.
It is mostly on this last point that I will speak;
a. Tax Reform equals Environmental reform.
b. End subsidization of archane technologies and established players, back to investor of first and last resort.
c. Support STEMs in Education.
a. By closing loopholes in a conscientious and clear manner, there will no longer be a dispensation for making profit at all costs (where the environment takes the burden as resource and resolution).
Although not as clearly defined by the powers-that-be, the need for reform has a throughput onto the ideas introduced by Schumacher as Small is Beautiful. becomes that ecosystem and ecological thinking is in effect environmentally correct long-term economic development.
Obama was dancing at the edge of this thinking without removing any of his obvious commitments to the Corporate System.
However, a clever tax system will try to become clever by half playing "lets make a deal." The second step to truly resolving the Environmental equation for Cost-Benefit-Analysis is for holistic and conscientious Tort Reform. That is a hot potato in the Do Nothing Congress Part II we are effectively beginning to witness (although I am open to being wrong-- see Sequestration).
b. Corn Ethynol, Oil, and Fracking are all subsidized, although science clearly puts them in the back of the Carbon efficiency line (would that they list in order from most to least carbon efficient). That carbon efficiency in conjunction with time for development (with unlimited resources) should inform what priority to grant and burse the otherwise limited resources dedicated to Energy and Technology.
As mentioned, the investments by the people for the people are best as first and last resort-- like radio and other experimental technologies the US government and the people have been the ones who "built the railroad," not the tycoons who then scooped up and organized for profit the activities.
Hopefully in four years we will have sensibly realigned subsides so that the only thing big oil is getting is small relief for the retooling of extant refineries to become clean, non-polluting, and carbon efficient.
c. All other social concerns aside, and with the full-throated support of the scientifically true "first five," as we call early childhood development, education and care in California, the next step is to raise a generation not afraid to do math, believe in science, or be transparent in their actions as citizens.
It is not the government that will lead the inevitable democratization of truth, rather it is the people. Let's pay teachers what they are due for tending the most valuable natural resource we have, isn't it time?
I didn't hear a "socialist" argument as the Republicans over the decades are fond to label, rather a proactive agenda on education that accepted truths (like global warming) where for whatever reason the less than 1% of scientists disagree with the issue writ large (does climate change exist?).
A fact-based reality based education system will, informed by all the sciences and technologies, force a fundamental zugzwang by the Federal in favor of the local education officials-- and that is something I have heard every republican quick on the "commie," or "Socialist," trigger belly ache for power to rest in the local not Federal powers where education is concerned.
Yet, it was Bush II, who forced the random test driven multiple choice idiocracy called "no child left behind."
Incentivize the collaboration in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) with new and existing public-private relationships by also having the principles found in STEM, logic, and reason inform the process and development of this completely new world of education, knowledge, and technology, and any disadvantage from the retooling of our outmoded educational system (writ large) will fall away very quickly once children are given the access to tools already available-- just not very widely at time of publication.
Lets see if reason will spread like a disease in the next four years, or will we continue to appear as a gorilla chasing its tail to the rest of the world?
Sunday, March 20, 2011
How Cataclysm is Reality Check
The Disaster in Japan, presently mounting towards becoming something we will only hope to determine in a couple of months could be at least worse than Three-Mile Island and probably not as bad as Chernobyl; that is the Nuclear (Environment [Energy {consumption/scarcity} Economy] Health) Situation.
The Disaster in Japan is an example of the force of the oceans, a vivid recreation of the Indonesian Tsunami, but with the million dollar yachts, middle class houses, and video cameras slushing about everywhere—all floating together equally: that the reality TV, media, yet very real Safety Preparedness issues brought front and center for the World to see.
The Disaster in Japan was also a Massive Series of Earthquakes. Three Disasters in one, and all of them begging questions. Fundamental questions that I am confident the Japanese Society, and the World with which they have built tremendous store of good will, interdependence, and fair trade can answer the questions being asked by this Natural Disaster.
To come back to simplicity, the tragedy shows beggar, rich man, and thief all equally were swept away. All died, and were spared only according to natural forces – not perceptions or falsehoods held by society. Chaos, and randomness. DONATE TODAY!
We can use this crisis soon to be molded into opportunity to better understand our Society, too.
The first question begged, Nuclear, asks us to truly have Utilities, states, and corporations acknowledge that we are currently (this includes everything from Climate Change to Household cleansers, and includes everything else we make) conducting a real-time open ended chemistry experiment with our environs and habitat for which we rely upon sustenance. I have complained very loudly in my book Metaeconomics on the subject of incorrect assessment of lifetime costs and benefit-cost analysis in resource valuation.
The second shows us that seven generations thinking (planning for 7 x 30 = 210 years in advance) is required to address the engineering challenges of Reality posed by the forces of nature, and made worsening of those disasters.
Home itself as physical object is impermanent. So, any disaster in, near, or by the home becomes a scientific and engineering issue. At the extreme end, we have to be conscious also of our massive garbage and waste streams, and thus reusability, recycle-ability, biodegrability, etc.
For example: Is it too much to ask to buy a washing machine that your grandkids could inherit (still operational)? Or imagine you could use parts from your washing machine to replace parts to fix by hand (using simple tools) your futuristic vacuum? That the broken part can be sold for scrap to the local hardware store for re-smelting?
On the other hand, living spaces are designed to ideally (looking at older cultures than ours in Modern USA) last a similar 210 years... or many, many more!
Japan has the opportunity to unleash the resources to create an actual place where they find their best and brightest technological possibilities. Entire new, green, and safe communities can arise by direct result of the response by the question being begged.
Maybe there is hope for Nuclear Safety, but clearly like Deep Sea Oil Drilling, like Trickle Down Economics, and a parade of other less than flexible ideas we have recently witnessed self-destruct (or at the very least flies in ointment canisters -- if not fact based proofs against them) in our times.
Finally, to be specific and real in my example, the idea of a California Coastal Commission has been the obvious joke in my experience (and many others) in real estate, architecture, engineering, planning, design, and other professional experience. Saying CCC in many circles is short hand for bureaucratic nightmare and red tape.
However, by looking at the scope of the challenge now before our friends in Japan, we can see clearly why certain agencies do exist for betterment of common good issues like health, safety, environment and planning. We may however need to streamline, and make efficient this series of systems and conflicting agencies.
So, we should mirror our friends as they rebuild their infrastructure, help them in doing so, and use the massive economic requirements to upgrade and refurbish our crumbling infrastructure system.
The Disaster in Japan is an example of the force of the oceans, a vivid recreation of the Indonesian Tsunami, but with the million dollar yachts, middle class houses, and video cameras slushing about everywhere—all floating together equally: that the reality TV, media, yet very real Safety Preparedness issues brought front and center for the World to see.
The Disaster in Japan was also a Massive Series of Earthquakes. Three Disasters in one, and all of them begging questions. Fundamental questions that I am confident the Japanese Society, and the World with which they have built tremendous store of good will, interdependence, and fair trade can answer the questions being asked by this Natural Disaster.
To come back to simplicity, the tragedy shows beggar, rich man, and thief all equally were swept away. All died, and were spared only according to natural forces – not perceptions or falsehoods held by society. Chaos, and randomness. DONATE TODAY!
We can use this crisis soon to be molded into opportunity to better understand our Society, too.
The first question begged, Nuclear, asks us to truly have Utilities, states, and corporations acknowledge that we are currently (this includes everything from Climate Change to Household cleansers, and includes everything else we make) conducting a real-time open ended chemistry experiment with our environs and habitat for which we rely upon sustenance. I have complained very loudly in my book Metaeconomics on the subject of incorrect assessment of lifetime costs and benefit-cost analysis in resource valuation.
The second shows us that seven generations thinking (planning for 7 x 30 = 210 years in advance) is required to address the engineering challenges of Reality posed by the forces of nature, and made worsening of those disasters.
Home itself as physical object is impermanent. So, any disaster in, near, or by the home becomes a scientific and engineering issue. At the extreme end, we have to be conscious also of our massive garbage and waste streams, and thus reusability, recycle-ability, biodegrability, etc.
For example: Is it too much to ask to buy a washing machine that your grandkids could inherit (still operational)? Or imagine you could use parts from your washing machine to replace parts to fix by hand (using simple tools) your futuristic vacuum? That the broken part can be sold for scrap to the local hardware store for re-smelting?
On the other hand, living spaces are designed to ideally (looking at older cultures than ours in Modern USA) last a similar 210 years... or many, many more!
Japan has the opportunity to unleash the resources to create an actual place where they find their best and brightest technological possibilities. Entire new, green, and safe communities can arise by direct result of the response by the question being begged.
Maybe there is hope for Nuclear Safety, but clearly like Deep Sea Oil Drilling, like Trickle Down Economics, and a parade of other less than flexible ideas we have recently witnessed self-destruct (or at the very least flies in ointment canisters -- if not fact based proofs against them) in our times.
Finally, to be specific and real in my example, the idea of a California Coastal Commission has been the obvious joke in my experience (and many others) in real estate, architecture, engineering, planning, design, and other professional experience. Saying CCC in many circles is short hand for bureaucratic nightmare and red tape.
However, by looking at the scope of the challenge now before our friends in Japan, we can see clearly why certain agencies do exist for betterment of common good issues like health, safety, environment and planning. We may however need to streamline, and make efficient this series of systems and conflicting agencies.
So, we should mirror our friends as they rebuild their infrastructure, help them in doing so, and use the massive economic requirements to upgrade and refurbish our crumbling infrastructure system.
- In these next years, the friendship between our nations and the connection and spirit of kinship can only become that much stronger by the real challenges and questions Mother Nature has now asked of all human societies around the world.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
From the peanut gallery to the rafters... a crib sheet with commentary on the SOTU
Here in Bold are my take-aways, and in italics the words from the speech that best summarized the speech logic points.
Howard Fineman called it 'the most pro-business speech a Democrat has given.'
1. Implied acknowledgement of Keynesian Major Project Theory."The first step in winning the future is encouraging American innovation."
2. Direct acknowledgement of the broken educational mechanisms. "...we also have to win the race to educate our kids."
3. Acknowledgment that one of the most efficacious stimulus actions of money from government would be best spent on Infrastructure. "Our infrastructure used to be the best - but our lead has slipped."
4. Acknowledgement of over-burdened small business part 1: regulatory. "All these investments - in innovation, education, and infrastructure - will make America a better place to do business and create jobs. But to help our companies compete, we also have to knock down barriers that stand in the way of their success."
5. Acknowledgment of over-burdened small and medium businesses part 2: tax code. "So tonight, I'm asking Democrats and Republicans to simplify the system. Get rid of the loopholes. Level the playing field. And use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years - without adding to our deficit."
6. Fiscal Prudence. "Now, the final step - a critical step - in winning the future is to make sure we aren't buried under a mountain of debt."
7. Government streamlining and modernization. "We should give them a government that's more competent and efficient." (Streamlining is a proven savings.)
(The rest focused on foreign policy, summarization and concluding remarks.)
***
Overall, if even some of this gets implemented in a reasonable (dare we suggest bi-partisan) manner, then we stand to be improved economically.
Howard Fineman called it 'the most pro-business speech a Democrat has given.'
1. Implied acknowledgement of Keynesian Major Project Theory."The first step in winning the future is encouraging American innovation."
2. Direct acknowledgement of the broken educational mechanisms. "...we also have to win the race to educate our kids."
3. Acknowledgment that one of the most efficacious stimulus actions of money from government would be best spent on Infrastructure. "Our infrastructure used to be the best - but our lead has slipped."
4. Acknowledgement of over-burdened small business part 1: regulatory. "All these investments - in innovation, education, and infrastructure - will make America a better place to do business and create jobs. But to help our companies compete, we also have to knock down barriers that stand in the way of their success."
5. Acknowledgment of over-burdened small and medium businesses part 2: tax code. "So tonight, I'm asking Democrats and Republicans to simplify the system. Get rid of the loopholes. Level the playing field. And use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years - without adding to our deficit."
6. Fiscal Prudence. "Now, the final step - a critical step - in winning the future is to make sure we aren't buried under a mountain of debt."
7. Government streamlining and modernization. "We should give them a government that's more competent and efficient." (Streamlining is a proven savings.)
(The rest focused on foreign policy, summarization and concluding remarks.)
***
Overall, if even some of this gets implemented in a reasonable (dare we suggest bi-partisan) manner, then we stand to be improved economically.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
New Tax Code
I really dont want to wade into the debate regarding the trial balloon, yet, but will say:
Close, but no cigar.
At least they didn't try to "please all the people all the time," and had political wisdom to understand that the recommendations wouldn't survive the congressional bile movements.
And I like they are starting down the road towards simplification, but some Tax deductions may be necessary.
That leads me to my only point;
They seem to forget that taxes, and the Relief therefrom, are the way to incentivize the citizenry and business alike.
Subsidies, tax breaks, and even certain "credit" type programs between the government and the citizens they propose to collect and protect (not be too cynical) from, can be made clear to create our future economy and growth from this recessionary hangover.
Ideas?
Close, but no cigar.
At least they didn't try to "please all the people all the time," and had political wisdom to understand that the recommendations wouldn't survive the congressional bile movements.
And I like they are starting down the road towards simplification, but some Tax deductions may be necessary.
That leads me to my only point;
They seem to forget that taxes, and the Relief therefrom, are the way to incentivize the citizenry and business alike.
Subsidies, tax breaks, and even certain "credit" type programs between the government and the citizens they propose to collect and protect (not be too cynical) from, can be made clear to create our future economy and growth from this recessionary hangover.
Ideas?
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
A New FHA for Consumer Credit: Deficit Neutral and No New Taxes Required
QUALIFIED FEDERAL CONSUMER LOAN PROGRAM PROPOSAL
(CLP) 1-50K
Premiss. In today’s economic reality debt is an admissable “sin,” that is not only permitted, rather it is encouraged on the whole by church and state, so simply we are told to spend, buy, and consume... and this we do.
Debt is a modern reality for every individual, family, and even local government!
As such, we must see that an eighteen year old today looking to become a “college educated,” independent person must then be admittting to entree of no less than $50,000.00 of debt ceiling in a very humble estimate of “standard,” education.
If we are expected to have an “average” college level of training, and earn a “reasonable” salary, then we should pretty much be planning with debt as a reality, not an “escape, or emergency.”
By dealing with debtor’s thinking only in crisis type situation we create and engage in unrealistic, non-methodological, and, often, rash decisions and decision making processes.
This applies to the emblematic purchases, such as mementos, and translates all the way through to extraordinary purchases (home, auto, business, etc.).
So, even college educated, especially the most recently graduated, speaking as the last ‘wave’ (or two) of persons graduated in a similarly desperate Employment Situation, I was similarly disappointed for many reasons (1995, not being the best day to enter into the “economy,” laden with debt loads that at this vantage seem simple and easy) after graduating college. See Affordability.
Imagining a Consumer Loan Program. The image of a pup-tent... Four tent-pegs and a tent post (or two):
Peg One. Using “Sallie Mae-style Rules,” herein referred to as the 1-50K (that’s one dash fifty kay), would require the first fifty thousand in debt of any individual American Consumer to be treated with the forbearance, interest rate restrictions, and fair regulation and rules treatment, similar to if it was a student loan.
The proposal here may potentially include minor Consumer Loan Protection adjustments and improvements to the Sallie Mae Rules, but it does not and should not affect the actual Sallie Mae Program.
A new entity, or possibly branch or division of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is proposed to be sponsored by the government for these purposes, as it relates to individual debt;
(A) Government Guarantee to it’s citizens (for that first $50,000)
(B) Regulate the micro-loan ($1 to $50,000 dollars US) markets, and to a lesser extent simplify the small business lending process ($50,001 to $250,000 dollars US) for micro (under $250,000) business loans
(C) Work with existing regulatory and oversight bodies to ensure consumer protections
(D) Independent oversight to expand recommendations for counsel with various regulatory and economic agencies
Government backing will create a secondary market to resell pools of bonds like Sallie, Freddy and Fannie. In this recommendation, we strongly urge the oversight of regulations and the simplicity and transparency of rules, and suggest this could become a means for clarifying, and making positive change in the bond and securities markets, extant.
Micro-loans, those under fifty-thousand dollars, to individuals, as secured by real property, tangible property, or without security are all considered equivalent in this regard, and refer to those US citizens to whom there is such indebtedness, often above and beyond just this loan amount.
I imagine that if this program and set of reforms were so implemented, by having no required loan minimums, we may expect this provision would create a swarm of micro credit availability and lending programs.
Working in concert with existing laws agencies and institutions, new modified and streamlined rules would allow for a massive wave of refinancing of consumer debt.
In some cases, individual credit may be extended.
This proposal amounts to a non-bankruptcy proposal to the American citizen, and an admission by it’s leaders’ that the economic policies for the last decades have not (i) improved affordability, (ii) fully redressed income or prosperity gaps, nor (iii) have fully redressed income discrimination or dispairities.
Debt is unfortunately inevitable, and we (apparently continue to) follow the example of our leaders.
Peg Two. Consumer Rights, Responsibilities, and Limitations
(A) Interest. Your interest rate may not be usurious. Rates are here proposed to have a regulated minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 7.5%.
(B) Credit. Your “credit rating” can be calculated by a monkey. Five percentage points between 2.5 and 7.5 percent, create five categories of credit-worthiness:
a. Real Estate Attached and Full Documentation (Only)
b. Tangible Property Attached and Full Documentation
c. Tangible Property Attached and Low Documentation
d. Signature Only and Full Documentation
e. Signature Only and Low Documentation
(C) Limits. Your Loan Limit will be one factor where affordability and litmus tests can come into play. (It’s a government-backed loan, not a guarantee that someone will lend.)
(D) Tax Deduction. Any Interest paid on these loans is a write-off, so long as the item purchased isn’t also being depreciated in the tax year interest is written off.
(E) Business. Aside from a shot in the arm with refreshed credit sources, and credit availability, (S, SE, Sole Proprietorship, and 1099) small businesses and contractors will get an additional allowance of benefit in their own category, and these three elements of credit availability and liquidity combined should act as a serious stimulus for Main Street.
(F) Families. Any individual who claims any (one or more) dependant will automatically qualify for an additional $5000.00 credit limit.
(G) Responsibility. Although any Individual or business may refinance the first amount of debt ant any time, without pre-payment penalties, the debt may only be paid-off, and cannot be discharged through Bankruptcy.
Central Tent Pole. Insurance.
In a counter-balance to the risk of “no BK,” or ‘bankruptcies,’ to the consumer there is, aside from the potential for a secondary market in the government backed securities, another mitigating factor to the macro investors, as well as the creditors themselves.
There needs to be a tent pole in place that assures there is a sound investment proposal, otherwise this becomes a government-propped scheme, as opposed to a government operated trust on behalf of the Consumer.
Although no “insurance requirement” is here recommended to be used as a factor for making any one loan, an “insurance component,” that would be available to be opted in to any loan at any time, and in accordance with Federal and State rules, that allows for the expense of servicing to cover the costs of an insurance premium that benefits the Debt-Holder.
These policies do not have to be that simple, but they should follow some rules of the road, and is here recommended can not add to the expense of having taken the loan.
First off, according to this recommendation, like the loans have no pre-payment penalties, these insurance policies can be bought back by the consumer. After a debt is satisfied, the Debt Holder, must offer the consumer a fair right to redeem the Policy being held on his or her life.
Further, that right (1. to satisfy the debt, and 2. to retain the benefit of policy) is best if it also transfers to one’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free, and no undue delay may be created by the Debt Holder.
Finally, a Debt Holder will be required to follow certain time periods that describe normal and requisite response times from Consumer to retrieve such a benefit.
However, in the event of a default, or the death of any consumer, after following procedure in concert with appropriate notification, waiting and response times, the Debt Holder may be considered in first position to discharge all costs against the benefits of any policy so entrusted, before transferring any fully accounted and audited remainder to the Consumer’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free.
By including this insurance component with the government backed facility, (A) we have a secondary guarantee to have any consumer debt satisfied, (B) we have mitigated risk, so justifying the limits on interest rates and fees.
As Mortgage Insurance does for FHA Loans, so for the Debentures and Debts this private Life insurance market will act to mitigate risks posed by individual Consumers acting as borrowers, and secondarily will have the collective benefit of mitigating risks of recoupment of principle. Overall, this should be very attractive to investors, particularly if these debentures remain dollar denominated.
Peg Three. Resultant Savings.
If any of this remains unclear, for whatever reason, just do some basic research and consumer financial education and find out the difference between a typical credit card loan = a negatively amortized revolving loan with fees and rates between 6.99 and 29.99%, and the proposal here to make a flat rate of forbearable interest, fee restrictions, and a rate range from 2.50 and 7.50%-- this will save the average American family $1152 per year!
-
Just three ideas and a comment, from what would certainly be an eventual plethora as a result of these recommendations, of ways to improve the Consumer outcome in dealing with Affordability and Debenture, as a net benefit from these rule ideas, for this peg of the tent that may all be simultaneously executed:
(A) In Loan Work-outs, refinances, and/or other incentivized restructuring programs, a tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs [see Health Savings Account]) may be set up on behalf of the Consumer as a “Learning to Save,” qualification for any business that would so seek to be qualified. That tax free account would eventually revert to the Consumer, after all debts have been satisfied. Lawyers, insurance Agents, Brokers, as well as Credit Counselors, Not for Profit Debt Agencies, et. al. would be ideal candidates to assist in this program by becoming tested, qualified and bonded as a credentialed, licensed and recognized Trustee.
(B) In consumer credit devices, a similar tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs) may be set up as an incentive to qualify for lower interest rates (still have to be between 2.5 and 7.5% however), and may also with certain restrictions be set up as an overdraft protection mechanism.
(C) After a debt has been satisfied, any remainder due the consumer, with or without any insurance component(s), may be set into a new or existing tax-free savings account.
(D) Comment: Creditors are here recommended to be fully compliant as Trustees and meet additional requirements to participate in housing the principle sums for individual Consumers' Savings Trusteeship accounts that qualify for the FDIC sponsored savings program(s), preferable to local banks, Credit Unions, and Bonded Agents already insured by FDIC.
Peg Four. Business.
Loan Limits here proposed: for individual are $1 ~ $45,000 and then an additional $5,000 if you claim any dependant.
If you file Jointly, then as a couple your combined maximum limit for tax-deductable interest payments on qualified consumer loans is $90,000 and then an additional $5,000 for your first, and second $5,000 if you claim any dependants numbering 2 or above.
If you file as a Sole Proprietor, SE, S-Corp, or 1099, then under additional rules you may apply for “SBA Rules,” or 51-250K (that’s fifty-one dash two-hundred fifty kay [as in loan limits from $51 ~ 250 thousands]), which only should have in common with SBA Loans (1) they’re for Business Purposes, and (2) the government acts as backer of last resort.
Otherwise, only a Board of Advisors role is recommended by this proposal to be held something like at an annual meeting between this Consumer Loan Program (CLP) and the Small Business Administration to coordinate and harmonize lending rules would seem to be potentially necessary.
Same Interest Rate Limits as the first tent peg.
Same 5 credit categories as the first tent peg.
Same tax deduction, same everything, except (i.) loan limits go higher (up to $250,000), but may be slightly more restrictive, and (ii.) may potentially have pre-payment penalties, or other restrictions.
Cash flow of the business, credit worthiness, and net worth should all come into play, but ideally not be so inflexible as to stifle our nations Entrepreneurs from getting a second, third, or even fourth chance at success, the pursuit of happiness, and creation of Jobs!
Conclusion to this proposal. Imaging Purpose; The Second Tent Pole.
The government must act as debtor of last resort in order to encourage the Lending Institutions, and the Financial Industry in general, to effectuate a new game plan, which better enables and ennobles our American Citizenry—A Right to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness—all three things that Lending can do when capital is properly employed.
This proposal is intended to be tax neutral, and highly stimulative to the economy.
Finally, I suggest a slogan to this Agency, Consumer Loan Program, or what-have you, and it reads simply:
Indifference and Forbearance
To whit a philosophy:
This agency in its oversight shall be indifferent to the “whom,” and focus only on the ‘what and how’ in order to protect the consumer, detect fraud and abuse, and foster equal lending practices at the micro-Business and individual Consumer levels.
The objective of this agency is to promote the free flow of capital investment to the farthest reaches of our economy.
Policy and procedure are the foundation, Rule of Law the building, and the marketplace of American Citizens shall be the people whom would so enjoin to make Consumer Loans.
This agency shall preserve the mission to forbear, for the Government must lead by example, and that purpose is: (i) a tolerant and quiet strength with efficiency in motion, (ii) an unyielding belief in Americans as a group and as individuals, (iii) and straightforwardness of purpose.
To bring to bear the proper practices available to the Consumer on the economy.
And, to create opportunities for the American Citizenry in their pursuits of Life, Liberty and happiness.
(CLP) 1-50K
Premiss. In today’s economic reality debt is an admissable “sin,” that is not only permitted, rather it is encouraged on the whole by church and state, so simply we are told to spend, buy, and consume... and this we do.
Debt is a modern reality for every individual, family, and even local government!
As such, we must see that an eighteen year old today looking to become a “college educated,” independent person must then be admittting to entree of no less than $50,000.00 of debt ceiling in a very humble estimate of “standard,” education.
If we are expected to have an “average” college level of training, and earn a “reasonable” salary, then we should pretty much be planning with debt as a reality, not an “escape, or emergency.”
By dealing with debtor’s thinking only in crisis type situation we create and engage in unrealistic, non-methodological, and, often, rash decisions and decision making processes.
This applies to the emblematic purchases, such as mementos, and translates all the way through to extraordinary purchases (home, auto, business, etc.).
So, even college educated, especially the most recently graduated, speaking as the last ‘wave’ (or two) of persons graduated in a similarly desperate Employment Situation, I was similarly disappointed for many reasons (1995, not being the best day to enter into the “economy,” laden with debt loads that at this vantage seem simple and easy) after graduating college. See Affordability.
Imagining a Consumer Loan Program. The image of a pup-tent... Four tent-pegs and a tent post (or two):
Peg One. Using “Sallie Mae-style Rules,” herein referred to as the 1-50K (that’s one dash fifty kay), would require the first fifty thousand in debt of any individual American Consumer to be treated with the forbearance, interest rate restrictions, and fair regulation and rules treatment, similar to if it was a student loan.
The proposal here may potentially include minor Consumer Loan Protection adjustments and improvements to the Sallie Mae Rules, but it does not and should not affect the actual Sallie Mae Program.
A new entity, or possibly branch or division of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is proposed to be sponsored by the government for these purposes, as it relates to individual debt;
(A) Government Guarantee to it’s citizens (for that first $50,000)
(B) Regulate the micro-loan ($1 to $50,000 dollars US) markets, and to a lesser extent simplify the small business lending process ($50,001 to $250,000 dollars US) for micro (under $250,000) business loans
(C) Work with existing regulatory and oversight bodies to ensure consumer protections
(D) Independent oversight to expand recommendations for counsel with various regulatory and economic agencies
Government backing will create a secondary market to resell pools of bonds like Sallie, Freddy and Fannie. In this recommendation, we strongly urge the oversight of regulations and the simplicity and transparency of rules, and suggest this could become a means for clarifying, and making positive change in the bond and securities markets, extant.
Micro-loans, those under fifty-thousand dollars, to individuals, as secured by real property, tangible property, or without security are all considered equivalent in this regard, and refer to those US citizens to whom there is such indebtedness, often above and beyond just this loan amount.
I imagine that if this program and set of reforms were so implemented, by having no required loan minimums, we may expect this provision would create a swarm of micro credit availability and lending programs.
Working in concert with existing laws agencies and institutions, new modified and streamlined rules would allow for a massive wave of refinancing of consumer debt.
In some cases, individual credit may be extended.
This proposal amounts to a non-bankruptcy proposal to the American citizen, and an admission by it’s leaders’ that the economic policies for the last decades have not (i) improved affordability, (ii) fully redressed income or prosperity gaps, nor (iii) have fully redressed income discrimination or dispairities.
Debt is unfortunately inevitable, and we (apparently continue to) follow the example of our leaders.
Peg Two. Consumer Rights, Responsibilities, and Limitations
(A) Interest. Your interest rate may not be usurious. Rates are here proposed to have a regulated minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 7.5%.
(B) Credit. Your “credit rating” can be calculated by a monkey. Five percentage points between 2.5 and 7.5 percent, create five categories of credit-worthiness:
a. Real Estate Attached and Full Documentation (Only)
b. Tangible Property Attached and Full Documentation
c. Tangible Property Attached and Low Documentation
d. Signature Only and Full Documentation
e. Signature Only and Low Documentation
(C) Limits. Your Loan Limit will be one factor where affordability and litmus tests can come into play. (It’s a government-backed loan, not a guarantee that someone will lend.)
(D) Tax Deduction. Any Interest paid on these loans is a write-off, so long as the item purchased isn’t also being depreciated in the tax year interest is written off.
(E) Business. Aside from a shot in the arm with refreshed credit sources, and credit availability, (S, SE, Sole Proprietorship, and 1099) small businesses and contractors will get an additional allowance of benefit in their own category, and these three elements of credit availability and liquidity combined should act as a serious stimulus for Main Street.
(F) Families. Any individual who claims any (one or more) dependant will automatically qualify for an additional $5000.00 credit limit.
(G) Responsibility. Although any Individual or business may refinance the first amount of debt ant any time, without pre-payment penalties, the debt may only be paid-off, and cannot be discharged through Bankruptcy.
Central Tent Pole. Insurance.
In a counter-balance to the risk of “no BK,” or ‘bankruptcies,’ to the consumer there is, aside from the potential for a secondary market in the government backed securities, another mitigating factor to the macro investors, as well as the creditors themselves.
There needs to be a tent pole in place that assures there is a sound investment proposal, otherwise this becomes a government-propped scheme, as opposed to a government operated trust on behalf of the Consumer.
Although no “insurance requirement” is here recommended to be used as a factor for making any one loan, an “insurance component,” that would be available to be opted in to any loan at any time, and in accordance with Federal and State rules, that allows for the expense of servicing to cover the costs of an insurance premium that benefits the Debt-Holder.
These policies do not have to be that simple, but they should follow some rules of the road, and is here recommended can not add to the expense of having taken the loan.
First off, according to this recommendation, like the loans have no pre-payment penalties, these insurance policies can be bought back by the consumer. After a debt is satisfied, the Debt Holder, must offer the consumer a fair right to redeem the Policy being held on his or her life.
Further, that right (1. to satisfy the debt, and 2. to retain the benefit of policy) is best if it also transfers to one’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free, and no undue delay may be created by the Debt Holder.
Finally, a Debt Holder will be required to follow certain time periods that describe normal and requisite response times from Consumer to retrieve such a benefit.
However, in the event of a default, or the death of any consumer, after following procedure in concert with appropriate notification, waiting and response times, the Debt Holder may be considered in first position to discharge all costs against the benefits of any policy so entrusted, before transferring any fully accounted and audited remainder to the Consumer’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free.
By including this insurance component with the government backed facility, (A) we have a secondary guarantee to have any consumer debt satisfied, (B) we have mitigated risk, so justifying the limits on interest rates and fees.
As Mortgage Insurance does for FHA Loans, so for the Debentures and Debts this private Life insurance market will act to mitigate risks posed by individual Consumers acting as borrowers, and secondarily will have the collective benefit of mitigating risks of recoupment of principle. Overall, this should be very attractive to investors, particularly if these debentures remain dollar denominated.
Peg Three. Resultant Savings.
If any of this remains unclear, for whatever reason, just do some basic research and consumer financial education and find out the difference between a typical credit card loan = a negatively amortized revolving loan with fees and rates between 6.99 and 29.99%, and the proposal here to make a flat rate of forbearable interest, fee restrictions, and a rate range from 2.50 and 7.50%-- this will save the average American family $1152 per year!
-
Just three ideas and a comment, from what would certainly be an eventual plethora as a result of these recommendations, of ways to improve the Consumer outcome in dealing with Affordability and Debenture, as a net benefit from these rule ideas, for this peg of the tent that may all be simultaneously executed:
(A) In Loan Work-outs, refinances, and/or other incentivized restructuring programs, a tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs [see Health Savings Account]) may be set up on behalf of the Consumer as a “Learning to Save,” qualification for any business that would so seek to be qualified. That tax free account would eventually revert to the Consumer, after all debts have been satisfied. Lawyers, insurance Agents, Brokers, as well as Credit Counselors, Not for Profit Debt Agencies, et. al. would be ideal candidates to assist in this program by becoming tested, qualified and bonded as a credentialed, licensed and recognized Trustee.
(B) In consumer credit devices, a similar tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs) may be set up as an incentive to qualify for lower interest rates (still have to be between 2.5 and 7.5% however), and may also with certain restrictions be set up as an overdraft protection mechanism.
(C) After a debt has been satisfied, any remainder due the consumer, with or without any insurance component(s), may be set into a new or existing tax-free savings account.
(D) Comment: Creditors are here recommended to be fully compliant as Trustees and meet additional requirements to participate in housing the principle sums for individual Consumers' Savings Trusteeship accounts that qualify for the FDIC sponsored savings program(s), preferable to local banks, Credit Unions, and Bonded Agents already insured by FDIC.
Peg Four. Business.
Loan Limits here proposed: for individual are $1 ~ $45,000 and then an additional $5,000 if you claim any dependant.
If you file Jointly, then as a couple your combined maximum limit for tax-deductable interest payments on qualified consumer loans is $90,000 and then an additional $5,000 for your first, and second $5,000 if you claim any dependants numbering 2 or above.
If you file as a Sole Proprietor, SE, S-Corp, or 1099, then under additional rules you may apply for “SBA Rules,” or 51-250K (that’s fifty-one dash two-hundred fifty kay [as in loan limits from $51 ~ 250 thousands]), which only should have in common with SBA Loans (1) they’re for Business Purposes, and (2) the government acts as backer of last resort.
Otherwise, only a Board of Advisors role is recommended by this proposal to be held something like at an annual meeting between this Consumer Loan Program (CLP) and the Small Business Administration to coordinate and harmonize lending rules would seem to be potentially necessary.
Same Interest Rate Limits as the first tent peg.
Same 5 credit categories as the first tent peg.
Same tax deduction, same everything, except (i.) loan limits go higher (up to $250,000), but may be slightly more restrictive, and (ii.) may potentially have pre-payment penalties, or other restrictions.
Cash flow of the business, credit worthiness, and net worth should all come into play, but ideally not be so inflexible as to stifle our nations Entrepreneurs from getting a second, third, or even fourth chance at success, the pursuit of happiness, and creation of Jobs!
Conclusion to this proposal. Imaging Purpose; The Second Tent Pole.
The government must act as debtor of last resort in order to encourage the Lending Institutions, and the Financial Industry in general, to effectuate a new game plan, which better enables and ennobles our American Citizenry—A Right to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness—all three things that Lending can do when capital is properly employed.
This proposal is intended to be tax neutral, and highly stimulative to the economy.
Finally, I suggest a slogan to this Agency, Consumer Loan Program, or what-have you, and it reads simply:
Indifference and Forbearance
To whit a philosophy:
This agency in its oversight shall be indifferent to the “whom,” and focus only on the ‘what and how’ in order to protect the consumer, detect fraud and abuse, and foster equal lending practices at the micro-Business and individual Consumer levels.
The objective of this agency is to promote the free flow of capital investment to the farthest reaches of our economy.
Policy and procedure are the foundation, Rule of Law the building, and the marketplace of American Citizens shall be the people whom would so enjoin to make Consumer Loans.
This agency shall preserve the mission to forbear, for the Government must lead by example, and that purpose is: (i) a tolerant and quiet strength with efficiency in motion, (ii) an unyielding belief in Americans as a group and as individuals, (iii) and straightforwardness of purpose.
To bring to bear the proper practices available to the Consumer on the economy.
And, to create opportunities for the American Citizenry in their pursuits of Life, Liberty and happiness.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Remember 1994
We in CA are on the verge of a historical change where the ethically and economically unsound National stance on Hemp may soon begin its final chapter. I would like to offer a compare/contrast for those who are seeking to #Pass19:
I volunteered for Initiative 622 in Washington State in 1994 mostly giving the campaign free access to K.A.O.S. shows I was involved in, and in composing OpEds for broadcast and publication (almost entirely in the CPJ [Cooper Point Journal]).
I tried to look up last night what the final vote count was, but I just recall we got hammered. So, what, do I recall, happened (or more accurately what went wrong);
(1) Message. 622 focused on I. Industrial, II. Medicinal, and III. Recreational usage all being simultaneously legal. This was before CA landmark 1996 Prop 216 passed. It was too much too soon for such an "omni" approach, but now we have seen that for over 14 years Medicinal Cannabis has been legal-- society continues unharmed, if not improved.
(2) Organization. WA 622 had no real backers in the legitimate world. Mostly individuals making a good effort (and arguably laying the ground work as the frontlinesmen and women for CA 216) in organized chaos, where the adjective "organized" is, from what I witnessed, generous. On the contrary, Prop 19 seems to be enjoying major support from Labor, Law Enforcement, Religious, and other "real world" groups.
(3) Backing. 622 was social science at the state capitol. 19 was one of three major ideas from the leading groups with over 16 years of experience, 14 years of success, and better than a dozen years of profits from the result of that success! Although there are small contributers, having Lee's Oaksterdam as a backstop (as opposed to the NORML or Herrer initiatives that didn't gather enough signatures, but could have also conceivably had the same effect phenomenally) is very important!
(4) Continuity. 622 was like the Zen koan, "when a tree falls in the forest does it make a sound?" There was no real community of beneficiaries. There were drug dealers and users, and that was all the opposition had to point out. And they won. Now, in CA with Prop 19, there is a network of patients, lawyers, activists, industrialists, not to mention local and state government(s) who have seen the benefits of this nascent industry ready to burgeon, blossom, and recover from it's manufactured retardation by almost seventy years of criminalization.
(5) Timing. Both the major parties are showing up this election year as moral debtors: Republicans are asking us to take them back, even though almost none of what they propose is any different from how we got into this economic situation; and the Democrats are typically diffusive and lackluster in handling major issues-- gradual change we can eventually expect technical results from (as opposed to "change we can believe in"). Our state is leading the nation, but unfortunately this time it's in disastrous budgetary management.
Again, nationally, by continuing unsound Bushian fiscal policy, Democrats are arguing for a ~$3T unfunded tax break, while the Republicans are arguing for a ~$4T unfunded tax break by extending the previously unfunded tax breaks instituted during the Republican control of House, Senate and Executive. Both fiddling as Rome burns, and both, as usual, talking not listening to each other to fashion COMPROMISE.
Our state can go from worst to first, regardless of what Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumb do in DC, by reversing the effects of the originally state led ban on hemp. It was state led in 1931, so let it be state led again in 2010! There is no constitutional argument for or against the ban. As it stands today, the US Government continues to outlaw a multi-trillion dollar industry that would lead to major solutions for our current major problems!
WHAT HASN'T CHANGED
FARMS. Hemp will allow under-utilized and marginal farmlands to be productive without major water demands, giving the small farmer a fighting chance.
FAMILIES. By eliminating criminality, arbitrary and capricious arrests of predominantly minorities will become that much less prevalent; Our heroic enforcement workers can focus on legitimate threats that undermine our collective safety; Our state can restore funding for social netting that has all but vanished; and people will be put back to work!
JOBS. I talked to one Union official off the record, and their number is ~40,000 Union jobs within a year. I had speculated with the entire Hemp Industry coming back to life the number to be ~100,000, and either way this tracks with the rule of thumb that for every 1 Union job another ~1.5 are eventually created. No one has a crystal ball on this one, but in effect California should enjoy a major first mover advantage when Prop 19 passes!
TAXES. Cities that allow Industrial Hemp and Recreation Sales will gain, Counties that create taxes and regulations will gain, and the State non-partisan Legislative Analyst's Office has estimated an annual tax boon of ~$1.4BB for our bankrupted state. This is a sorely needed dose of the cure.
REGULATION. By creating rules and regulations, we will enable all citizens greater liberty, by creating avenues of access. Further, for those of us who feel that Business needs clear and simple rules, we can only hope that our input is asked for at the appropriate juncture. Regardless, by bringing into light the dark economy, which is presently CAs #1 crop, we can expect greater civility-- a nice way of saying the International Drug Cartels will have to line up behind citizens to get licenses, permits, and then pay proper taxes, like the rest of us!
Let's be clear: (a) No one is saying people under 21 should have access. As it is, they already have as good or better access to the recreational use (with no clear comprehension of the commercial uses) of cannabis than to alcohol. (b) No one is saying it is okay to be under the influence of cannabis and work, drive, or operate heavy machinery. Again, think of how we tax and regulate alcohol. (c) Although there is some confusion by medicinal users on this issue, no one will be able to bring the provisions of 215 under the taxation or restrictions imposed onto non-medicinal users by the passing of 19.
I await proper logical rebuttal, but have not heard one for over 16 years!
I volunteered for Initiative 622 in Washington State in 1994 mostly giving the campaign free access to K.A.O.S. shows I was involved in, and in composing OpEds for broadcast and publication (almost entirely in the CPJ [Cooper Point Journal]).
I tried to look up last night what the final vote count was, but I just recall we got hammered. So, what, do I recall, happened (or more accurately what went wrong);
(1) Message. 622 focused on I. Industrial, II. Medicinal, and III. Recreational usage all being simultaneously legal. This was before CA landmark 1996 Prop 216 passed. It was too much too soon for such an "omni" approach, but now we have seen that for over 14 years Medicinal Cannabis has been legal-- society continues unharmed, if not improved.
(2) Organization. WA 622 had no real backers in the legitimate world. Mostly individuals making a good effort (and arguably laying the ground work as the frontlinesmen and women for CA 216) in organized chaos, where the adjective "organized" is, from what I witnessed, generous. On the contrary, Prop 19 seems to be enjoying major support from Labor, Law Enforcement, Religious, and other "real world" groups.
(3) Backing. 622 was social science at the state capitol. 19 was one of three major ideas from the leading groups with over 16 years of experience, 14 years of success, and better than a dozen years of profits from the result of that success! Although there are small contributers, having Lee's Oaksterdam as a backstop (as opposed to the NORML or Herrer initiatives that didn't gather enough signatures, but could have also conceivably had the same effect phenomenally) is very important!
(4) Continuity. 622 was like the Zen koan, "when a tree falls in the forest does it make a sound?" There was no real community of beneficiaries. There were drug dealers and users, and that was all the opposition had to point out. And they won. Now, in CA with Prop 19, there is a network of patients, lawyers, activists, industrialists, not to mention local and state government(s) who have seen the benefits of this nascent industry ready to burgeon, blossom, and recover from it's manufactured retardation by almost seventy years of criminalization.
(5) Timing. Both the major parties are showing up this election year as moral debtors: Republicans are asking us to take them back, even though almost none of what they propose is any different from how we got into this economic situation; and the Democrats are typically diffusive and lackluster in handling major issues-- gradual change we can eventually expect technical results from (as opposed to "change we can believe in"). Our state is leading the nation, but unfortunately this time it's in disastrous budgetary management.
Again, nationally, by continuing unsound Bushian fiscal policy, Democrats are arguing for a ~$3T unfunded tax break, while the Republicans are arguing for a ~$4T unfunded tax break by extending the previously unfunded tax breaks instituted during the Republican control of House, Senate and Executive. Both fiddling as Rome burns, and both, as usual, talking not listening to each other to fashion COMPROMISE.
Our state can go from worst to first, regardless of what Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumb do in DC, by reversing the effects of the originally state led ban on hemp. It was state led in 1931, so let it be state led again in 2010! There is no constitutional argument for or against the ban. As it stands today, the US Government continues to outlaw a multi-trillion dollar industry that would lead to major solutions for our current major problems!
WHAT HASN'T CHANGED
FARMS. Hemp will allow under-utilized and marginal farmlands to be productive without major water demands, giving the small farmer a fighting chance.
FAMILIES. By eliminating criminality, arbitrary and capricious arrests of predominantly minorities will become that much less prevalent; Our heroic enforcement workers can focus on legitimate threats that undermine our collective safety; Our state can restore funding for social netting that has all but vanished; and people will be put back to work!
JOBS. I talked to one Union official off the record, and their number is ~40,000 Union jobs within a year. I had speculated with the entire Hemp Industry coming back to life the number to be ~100,000, and either way this tracks with the rule of thumb that for every 1 Union job another ~1.5 are eventually created. No one has a crystal ball on this one, but in effect California should enjoy a major first mover advantage when Prop 19 passes!
TAXES. Cities that allow Industrial Hemp and Recreation Sales will gain, Counties that create taxes and regulations will gain, and the State non-partisan Legislative Analyst's Office has estimated an annual tax boon of ~$1.4BB for our bankrupted state. This is a sorely needed dose of the cure.
REGULATION. By creating rules and regulations, we will enable all citizens greater liberty, by creating avenues of access. Further, for those of us who feel that Business needs clear and simple rules, we can only hope that our input is asked for at the appropriate juncture. Regardless, by bringing into light the dark economy, which is presently CAs #1 crop, we can expect greater civility-- a nice way of saying the International Drug Cartels will have to line up behind citizens to get licenses, permits, and then pay proper taxes, like the rest of us!
Let's be clear: (a) No one is saying people under 21 should have access. As it is, they already have as good or better access to the recreational use (with no clear comprehension of the commercial uses) of cannabis than to alcohol. (b) No one is saying it is okay to be under the influence of cannabis and work, drive, or operate heavy machinery. Again, think of how we tax and regulate alcohol. (c) Although there is some confusion by medicinal users on this issue, no one will be able to bring the provisions of 215 under the taxation or restrictions imposed onto non-medicinal users by the passing of 19.
I await proper logical rebuttal, but have not heard one for over 16 years!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Strategy, Tactics, and Terrorism
I will make this brief.
The idea that we can stop terrorists who seem to be coming in via London, Amsterdam, or other foreign ports into America to set off havoc (and bombs) by essentially removing civil liberties here at home beggars belief.
A phrase that would have been heresy just several years ago, but is now on the TV-machine a lot is "security theater."
Now in my mind this would be the staging area for a secure zone, but in fact means staging an act which is designed to lend the appearance of greater safety.
We still haven't completely implemented the work of the bipartisan 9-11 Commission, Republicans continue to play petty politics by not conferring a TSA Chief, and meanwhile New safety measures appear arbitrary... I mean here.
The simple Strategical guidance I would offer is simple: We must shift from a Reactionary Defense to a Proactive Defense; We must shift from a Nation-State Invasion Model to a Sectarian Counter-terror Model.
Easier said than done!
That said, Proactive Defense looks more like what the British accomplished in 2005 with the liquid bombers; or the French have been dealing with since Algerian Independence in 1962. A lot of very advanced police work!
Our current reactionary basis has us looking at areas where the opponents last struck. As they say in investing, "past performance does not guarantee future results." This is backwards hindsight mentality.
The balance is to get international cooperation on improved intelligence techniques that somehow maintains reasonable personal privacy and functional civil liberties.
As for our wholesale invasion of places where terrorists live, well that is as delusional as the idea that Terrorists will somehow destroy the Freedom we enjoy in the West.
Our freedoms, our wealth, and our model of social change is not something that people plan on giving up on, and like any good product or service-- it is in high demand!
Ours is not a natural state of governance, but a logical outcrop as a result from hard earned lessons and wars of the past. Ours is the best model, for now, and people basically like Freedom, Liberty and Justice. So the terrorists can't expect random acts of havoc to remove or somehow dethrone this truth.
On the other hand there are dissenters and at the harshest end bad actors, those who would commit terrorist acts, probably in any major nation-state in the world. It becomes a question of what is aspirational and what is operational as to what threats are indeed real to human safety and liberty.
So, to invade yet another country to ensure freedom and democracy is so 20th century, and a very proven failed idea from not just a budgetary, but a benefit-cost, point of view.
Like NASA, our defense and offense needs to get more focused, accurate, and scale appropriate to live within their means.
The idea that we can stop terrorists who seem to be coming in via London, Amsterdam, or other foreign ports into America to set off havoc (and bombs) by essentially removing civil liberties here at home beggars belief.
A phrase that would have been heresy just several years ago, but is now on the TV-machine a lot is "security theater."
Now in my mind this would be the staging area for a secure zone, but in fact means staging an act which is designed to lend the appearance of greater safety.
We still haven't completely implemented the work of the bipartisan 9-11 Commission, Republicans continue to play petty politics by not conferring a TSA Chief, and meanwhile New safety measures appear arbitrary... I mean here.
The simple Strategical guidance I would offer is simple: We must shift from a Reactionary Defense to a Proactive Defense; We must shift from a Nation-State Invasion Model to a Sectarian Counter-terror Model.
Easier said than done!
That said, Proactive Defense looks more like what the British accomplished in 2005 with the liquid bombers; or the French have been dealing with since Algerian Independence in 1962. A lot of very advanced police work!
Our current reactionary basis has us looking at areas where the opponents last struck. As they say in investing, "past performance does not guarantee future results." This is backwards hindsight mentality.
The balance is to get international cooperation on improved intelligence techniques that somehow maintains reasonable personal privacy and functional civil liberties.
As for our wholesale invasion of places where terrorists live, well that is as delusional as the idea that Terrorists will somehow destroy the Freedom we enjoy in the West.
Our freedoms, our wealth, and our model of social change is not something that people plan on giving up on, and like any good product or service-- it is in high demand!
Ours is not a natural state of governance, but a logical outcrop as a result from hard earned lessons and wars of the past. Ours is the best model, for now, and people basically like Freedom, Liberty and Justice. So the terrorists can't expect random acts of havoc to remove or somehow dethrone this truth.
On the other hand there are dissenters and at the harshest end bad actors, those who would commit terrorist acts, probably in any major nation-state in the world. It becomes a question of what is aspirational and what is operational as to what threats are indeed real to human safety and liberty.
So, to invade yet another country to ensure freedom and democracy is so 20th century, and a very proven failed idea from not just a budgetary, but a benefit-cost, point of view.
Like NASA, our defense and offense needs to get more focused, accurate, and scale appropriate to live within their means.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
California Dreaming about Legal Hemp
Some may not have heard that now California has four pending Propositions to the public with Jack Herer's (CHI) Cannibis Hemp Initiative link.
The other three groups have filed proposed initiatives with the California Secretary of State for ballot measures that would legalize and impose a tax on marijuana:
Joe Rogoway, Omar Figueroa and James J. Clark filed the language for 09-0022 on July 15, 2009. They refer to their measure as The Tax, Regulate, and Control Cannabis Act of 2010. (TRC)
Richard Sieb Lee and Jeffrey Wayne Jones filed the language for 09-0024 on July 27, 2009. They refer to their measure as the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010. (RCT)
John Donohue of "Californians for Common Sense" filed the language for 09-0025 on August 4, 2009. He refers to his measure as the Common Sense Act of 2010. (CCS)
And if that wasnt enough Hempen news from the Golden State, there is also the February Assembly Bill 390 and the associated public effort to get that idea through the legislative process during California's fiscal crisis.
Jack Herer and many others have been beating the drum for legalization for decades.
I always argued for libertarian decriminalization and associated taxation, and now that the state is hungry to (a) save money, and (b) generate revenues-- it does seem the day is indeed nigh for legalization.
Herer's bill creates a limit on total taxation at $10.00 per ounce.
From what I have gleaned no other of the three initiatives have created a cap on the potential taxation.
If there is not a counterpart Senate Bill (to AB 390), then the idea that the legislature can impact this popular movement is moot. If the congress can get past the current Schwarzen-annegans, and head the voter's off at the pass-- a reasonable decriminalization scheme can be implemented.
More likely with the estimated over half the nation, and over half the state of CA supporting decriminalization, some or all of these initiatives could (I) end up on the 2010 ballot, and (II) PASS!
At that point, it will take the legislatures active effort to reconcile the differing versions of legalization and the methodologies prescribed by the voters.
Assuming those two (I & II) possibilities-- it would be well for the CA Legislature to get out ahead of this issue once they agree to fix the water distribution scheme!
The other three groups have filed proposed initiatives with the California Secretary of State for ballot measures that would legalize and impose a tax on marijuana:
Joe Rogoway, Omar Figueroa and James J. Clark filed the language for 09-0022 on July 15, 2009. They refer to their measure as The Tax, Regulate, and Control Cannabis Act of 2010. (TRC)
Richard Sieb Lee and Jeffrey Wayne Jones filed the language for 09-0024 on July 27, 2009. They refer to their measure as the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010. (RCT)
John Donohue of "Californians for Common Sense" filed the language for 09-0025 on August 4, 2009. He refers to his measure as the Common Sense Act of 2010. (CCS)
And if that wasnt enough Hempen news from the Golden State, there is also the February Assembly Bill 390 and the associated public effort to get that idea through the legislative process during California's fiscal crisis.
Jack Herer and many others have been beating the drum for legalization for decades.
I always argued for libertarian decriminalization and associated taxation, and now that the state is hungry to (a) save money, and (b) generate revenues-- it does seem the day is indeed nigh for legalization.
Herer's bill creates a limit on total taxation at $10.00 per ounce.
From what I have gleaned no other of the three initiatives have created a cap on the potential taxation.
If there is not a counterpart Senate Bill (to AB 390), then the idea that the legislature can impact this popular movement is moot. If the congress can get past the current Schwarzen-annegans, and head the voter's off at the pass-- a reasonable decriminalization scheme can be implemented.
More likely with the estimated over half the nation, and over half the state of CA supporting decriminalization, some or all of these initiatives could (I) end up on the 2010 ballot, and (II) PASS!
At that point, it will take the legislatures active effort to reconcile the differing versions of legalization and the methodologies prescribed by the voters.
Assuming those two (I & II) possibilities-- it would be well for the CA Legislature to get out ahead of this issue once they agree to fix the water distribution scheme!
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
New Tax Regime for California
The Commission on the 21st Century Economy released their report and recommendations - AP Release.
Notably missing were the calculations showing that their ideas would create a sustainable level of tax receipts at the 4% Business Net Receipts Tax level. The concern is that it may be a number too low that creates additional fiscal restraint, where fiscal restraint is a somewhat separate issue.
That said, the reduction of personal tax rates and small business tax rates (including an elimination of the $800 per year existence fee) yours truly is enthusiastic about (assuming the revenues would be sufficient to meet obligations)!
Further, the idea that they will simultaneously reduce the corporate tax, yet broaden the net to capture revenues generated within the state should seemingly drive new business to our state. But again there is no empirical data on offer to show anything to bolster my assumption here.
I would STRONGLY OBJECT to some final version of the recommendation to allow additional oil leases ABSENT any modernization of the oil extraction tax in line with the intent of the voted down (after a massive advertising blitz against) Prop 87. The commission recommends, "The state should permit new oil leases with royalty revenues going to a reserve fund," but if we are still taxing oil at 1.5% where most every nation and state is more towards 5% or above, then this is really just a gift to big oil!
I havent scoured all details of the Full text , but I imagine that by the time the Democratic Congress gets done with it it will change considerably from its current academic and nescient state.
In general I hope the 70% I like and the 20% I strongly dislike will be seriously considered by the legislature, but most the recommendations are common sense (like merging the existing two tax collection agencies). One hopes the common sense elements are left more or less in tact... We'll see!
Notably missing were the calculations showing that their ideas would create a sustainable level of tax receipts at the 4% Business Net Receipts Tax level. The concern is that it may be a number too low that creates additional fiscal restraint, where fiscal restraint is a somewhat separate issue.
That said, the reduction of personal tax rates and small business tax rates (including an elimination of the $800 per year existence fee) yours truly is enthusiastic about (assuming the revenues would be sufficient to meet obligations)!
Further, the idea that they will simultaneously reduce the corporate tax, yet broaden the net to capture revenues generated within the state should seemingly drive new business to our state. But again there is no empirical data on offer to show anything to bolster my assumption here.
I would STRONGLY OBJECT to some final version of the recommendation to allow additional oil leases ABSENT any modernization of the oil extraction tax in line with the intent of the voted down (after a massive advertising blitz against) Prop 87. The commission recommends, "The state should permit new oil leases with royalty revenues going to a reserve fund," but if we are still taxing oil at 1.5% where most every nation and state is more towards 5% or above, then this is really just a gift to big oil!
I havent scoured all details of the Full text , but I imagine that by the time the Democratic Congress gets done with it it will change considerably from its current academic and nescient state.
In general I hope the 70% I like and the 20% I strongly dislike will be seriously considered by the legislature, but most the recommendations are common sense (like merging the existing two tax collection agencies). One hopes the common sense elements are left more or less in tact... We'll see!
Thursday, September 24, 2009
The 10% (of GDP) Solution
[UPDATED (09/25/09)]
We approach one year since the Government of George W. Bush came to the rescue of Profiteers on Wall Street to create systemic reward for failure in our market driven economy.
Yesterday, Rachael Maddow interviewed Paul Krugman, and
In minute five he begins describing the remedies for the current situation and I will be discussing the statements he concludes by about minute six, and among the other interesting points he made he mentioned that in order to get out of the Great Depression we had WWII which required government fiscal input of ~40% of GDP.
He went on to state that the current stimulus is only about 2.5% of GDP.
Now I am not going to spend time checking to see how accurate those numbers are this morning, and I dont agree with everything Krugman says. That disclaimer out of the way, I will say hes probably pretty accurate on those facts, and it is clear (as he also went on to say) that the political fortitude for such a stimulus plan is weak at best (mirroring the point in the one minute clip I could find above).
SO lets take those facts as a rule of thumb. Lets say the economy is twice as efficient now as it was sixty or seventy years ago; Let grant that this Severe Recession isnt exactly the same as the Great Depression (lets say for simplicity its half as bad adding the broader networking of International markets, exchanges, and trade); and we would need about ten percent of GDP in stimulus to really soar past our current problems!
Now lets assume the government has screwed the pooch with Paulson-Cheney's rescue, and that Obama's versions are still too early to call. All that, according to Krugman yesterday is about 4% of GDP (including cash for clunkers, et. al.).
[Lets apply about 1.5% of GDP for Infrastructure improvements, as my memory from first post to this update was off by 1.5%, so that means] we have about another 6% of GDP yet to spend: So thats about $858BB we can still spend.
1. Thats about the estimated cost for the full Health Reform Bill without any efficiency savings
2. My top ten wish list (inclusive of increased infrastructure and health care inclusive of efficiency savings)
or
3. A Citizens Stimulus
Here's the idea: Instead of giving more money to the moneyed interests, give to the citizens! Let's say there are about 200,000,000 individual and family tax payers; There is about $850BB to give for completion of stimulus which is about 1/4th as strong as how we escaped the Great Depression; then we have about $4250 Credit Amount per individual.
A. Order of the Allthing. In Icelandic and Nordic cultures there was the All Thing which basically reconciled all debts every year-- including debt forgiveness. So here would be the thing which I prescribe;
i. First, subtract Federal back taxes and penalties forgiven up to the Credit Amount
ii. Then from that remainder, subtract State back taxes and penalties forgiven up to the Total Credit Amount (This money goes to the States!)
iii. Next from that remainder, subtract local (real estate) tax liens and penalties forgiven up to the Total Credit Amount (This goes to the local governments!!)
iv. Finally, assuming anything is left over, any outstanding judgements, child support, or other unpaid levies would be forgiven up to that Total Credit Amount
B. The way TARP should have been applied.
i. Citizen give government the right to examine credit records (they ostensibly have this data just from Fannie-Freddie)
ii. Government confirms real outstanding balances from an official capacity via subpoena powers (thereby any institution being usurious or illegal would be committing fraud at a Federal level)
iii. Citizen has time to dispute final balances
iv. Creditor has right to re-validate claim(s)
v. Citizen may elect to have any remainder from Allthing process (above) to be applied to some or all participating Creditors to discharge debts in a class manner
C. Citizen may simply bypass this class bailout/credit restoration process and collect remainder form Allthing process.
SO think about this practically! Lets say 33% have something left over and want to participate in this settling of debts. Lets imagine who the money is owed to? In its current configuration (post-bailouts and mergers) something like 90% of all consumer debts are carried by 5 major institutions.
IF we imagine that Citibank (for instance) then recovers something to the tune of 10% of its consumer debt, doesnt that serve the same purpose of stimulus? It also relieves the consumer, and technically allows Citibank to make new loans!
FInally, if all those bailout moneys had been so applied the amount being discussed would be closer to $10K per person, and if we added the idea that mortgages could be included as direct or indirect beneficiaries to the class settlements or the use of funds by individuals who elected to bypass the settlement process some of the foreclosure and real estate market issues would have been rounded out.
You may say I am a dreamer, but I hope someday you will join me...!
We approach one year since the Government of George W. Bush came to the rescue of Profiteers on Wall Street to create systemic reward for failure in our market driven economy.
Yesterday, Rachael Maddow interviewed Paul Krugman, and
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
In minute five he begins describing the remedies for the current situation and I will be discussing the statements he concludes by about minute six, and among the other interesting points he made he mentioned that in order to get out of the Great Depression we had WWII which required government fiscal input of ~40% of GDP.
He went on to state that the current stimulus is only about 2.5% of GDP.
Now I am not going to spend time checking to see how accurate those numbers are this morning, and I dont agree with everything Krugman says. That disclaimer out of the way, I will say hes probably pretty accurate on those facts, and it is clear (as he also went on to say) that the political fortitude for such a stimulus plan is weak at best (mirroring the point in the one minute clip I could find above).
SO lets take those facts as a rule of thumb. Lets say the economy is twice as efficient now as it was sixty or seventy years ago; Let grant that this Severe Recession isnt exactly the same as the Great Depression (lets say for simplicity its half as bad adding the broader networking of International markets, exchanges, and trade); and we would need about ten percent of GDP in stimulus to really soar past our current problems!
Now lets assume the government has screwed the pooch with Paulson-Cheney's rescue, and that Obama's versions are still too early to call. All that, according to Krugman yesterday is about 4% of GDP (including cash for clunkers, et. al.).
[Lets apply about 1.5% of GDP for Infrastructure improvements, as my memory from first post to this update was off by 1.5%, so that means] we have about another 6% of GDP yet to spend: So thats about $858BB we can still spend.
1. Thats about the estimated cost for the full Health Reform Bill without any efficiency savings
2. My top ten wish list (inclusive of increased infrastructure and health care inclusive of efficiency savings)
or
3. A Citizens Stimulus
Here's the idea: Instead of giving more money to the moneyed interests, give to the citizens! Let's say there are about 200,000,000 individual and family tax payers; There is about $850BB to give for completion of stimulus which is about 1/4th as strong as how we escaped the Great Depression; then we have about $4250 Credit Amount per individual.
A. Order of the Allthing. In Icelandic and Nordic cultures there was the All Thing which basically reconciled all debts every year-- including debt forgiveness. So here would be the thing which I prescribe;
i. First, subtract Federal back taxes and penalties forgiven up to the Credit Amount
ii. Then from that remainder, subtract State back taxes and penalties forgiven up to the Total Credit Amount (This money goes to the States!)
iii. Next from that remainder, subtract local (real estate) tax liens and penalties forgiven up to the Total Credit Amount (This goes to the local governments!!)
iv. Finally, assuming anything is left over, any outstanding judgements, child support, or other unpaid levies would be forgiven up to that Total Credit Amount
B. The way TARP should have been applied.
i. Citizen give government the right to examine credit records (they ostensibly have this data just from Fannie-Freddie)
ii. Government confirms real outstanding balances from an official capacity via subpoena powers (thereby any institution being usurious or illegal would be committing fraud at a Federal level)
iii. Citizen has time to dispute final balances
iv. Creditor has right to re-validate claim(s)
v. Citizen may elect to have any remainder from Allthing process (above) to be applied to some or all participating Creditors to discharge debts in a class manner
C. Citizen may simply bypass this class bailout/credit restoration process and collect remainder form Allthing process.
SO think about this practically! Lets say 33% have something left over and want to participate in this settling of debts. Lets imagine who the money is owed to? In its current configuration (post-bailouts and mergers) something like 90% of all consumer debts are carried by 5 major institutions.
IF we imagine that Citibank (for instance) then recovers something to the tune of 10% of its consumer debt, doesnt that serve the same purpose of stimulus? It also relieves the consumer, and technically allows Citibank to make new loans!
FInally, if all those bailout moneys had been so applied the amount being discussed would be closer to $10K per person, and if we added the idea that mortgages could be included as direct or indirect beneficiaries to the class settlements or the use of funds by individuals who elected to bypass the settlement process some of the foreclosure and real estate market issues would have been rounded out.
You may say I am a dreamer, but I hope someday you will join me...!
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Top Ten Triggers For the Snowe Health Bill Compromise Proposal
10. When there are more than 100,000 homeless people without health insurance coverage
9. When there are more than 100,000 people who lose health insurance (and can't afford the COBRA) when they lose their jobs
8. When Real Unemployment average for the USA is over 10.00% (currently ~17%)
7. When the average Californian has a 1 of 5 chance of claim denial by the top six insurance agencies (currently ~22%)
6. If a "death panel" of Insurance Actuaries, middle managers, and cost comptrollers deny someone coverage because of a "pre-existing condition"
5. If a "bankruptcy panel" of Insurance Actuaries, middle managers, and cost comptrollers deny someone's claim and they have to declare Bankruptcy
4. When the next 15,000 Americans become uninsured (that would be tomorrow)
3. When Insurance cost efficiencies exceed 15.00% (they currently average ~30%)
2. Before the next grandmother, a.k.a. "Granny," dies because a life saving treatment is denied by the health care coverage (HMO, Insurance, etc.)
1. Before the next child dies because a life saving treatment is denied by the health care coverage (HMO, Insurance, etc.)
9. When there are more than 100,000 people who lose health insurance (and can't afford the COBRA) when they lose their jobs
8. When Real Unemployment average for the USA is over 10.00% (currently ~17%)
7. When the average Californian has a 1 of 5 chance of claim denial by the top six insurance agencies (currently ~22%)
6. If a "death panel" of Insurance Actuaries, middle managers, and cost comptrollers deny someone coverage because of a "pre-existing condition"
5. If a "bankruptcy panel" of Insurance Actuaries, middle managers, and cost comptrollers deny someone's claim and they have to declare Bankruptcy
4. When the next 15,000 Americans become uninsured (that would be tomorrow)
3. When Insurance cost efficiencies exceed 15.00% (they currently average ~30%)
2. Before the next grandmother, a.k.a. "Granny," dies because a life saving treatment is denied by the health care coverage (HMO, Insurance, etc.)
1. Before the next child dies because a life saving treatment is denied by the health care coverage (HMO, Insurance, etc.)
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Arnie's Brinksmanship
Okay, to paraphrase the bible, here is Arnold Schwarzenegger's political future in a nut shell:
You enter by riding someone out on a rail, then you may very well be ridden out on your own rail.
The Republicans in California seem intent on tying themselves to a sinking ship (and taking the state down with them), rather than admit mismanagement (or lack of leadership, foresight, or any other reasonable excuse for their stubbornness) and allow everyone to get onto the lifeboats (to extend the metaphor).
The near extremist ideologue mentality that somehow interprets the career of Reagan as some seminal message that government must not raise taxes at all costs is a myth. Reagan raised taxes as Governor and President (http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh060804.shtml), and that fellow who campaigned after Reagan who expanded the "No Tax" myth of the invisble government:
Ooops...
So much for theory...
In practice Bush Jr's endless effort to manipulate an economic reality to demonstrate the magic of trickle down vodounomics has had precipitous results which are now as plain as the nose on your face my Dear Governor!
The definition of mental illness is when you attempt to get different results from the same methods without accepting, adjusting, adapting or improving that technique in the face of data set information gathered from past failures and consequences.
In my book, Metaeconomics, I premiss that the events of the fall 2008 have in my experience granted our generation a tremendous opportunity (within the context of major crisis) that of having proven in a non-laboratory environment that no pure theory of economics works all the time, in all economic conditions, and laws are amended to fashion and enhance illusions of mass perception (thus creating an appearance of function) within the macro economy (which is harder to provide contextual illusion to microeconomies for reasons not worth going into right here).
Governor, please stop this game of chicken, which is already set to effect thousands of children and millions of people adversely.
If the Republicans in congress are able to create a compromise that you then Veto, I would imagine the other aspect of our democracy could come into effect, much like it did for Gov. Davis, IMPEACHMENT!
You have a moral responsibility to end your governorship in a responsible manner, even if your political career my be over.
You enter by riding someone out on a rail, then you may very well be ridden out on your own rail.
The Republicans in California seem intent on tying themselves to a sinking ship (and taking the state down with them), rather than admit mismanagement (or lack of leadership, foresight, or any other reasonable excuse for their stubbornness) and allow everyone to get onto the lifeboats (to extend the metaphor).
The near extremist ideologue mentality that somehow interprets the career of Reagan as some seminal message that government must not raise taxes at all costs is a myth. Reagan raised taxes as Governor and President (http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh060804.shtml), and that fellow who campaigned after Reagan who expanded the "No Tax" myth of the invisble government:
Ooops...
So much for theory...
In practice Bush Jr's endless effort to manipulate an economic reality to demonstrate the magic of trickle down vodounomics has had precipitous results which are now as plain as the nose on your face my Dear Governor!
The definition of mental illness is when you attempt to get different results from the same methods without accepting, adjusting, adapting or improving that technique in the face of data set information gathered from past failures and consequences.
In my book, Metaeconomics, I premiss that the events of the fall 2008 have in my experience granted our generation a tremendous opportunity (within the context of major crisis) that of having proven in a non-laboratory environment that no pure theory of economics works all the time, in all economic conditions, and laws are amended to fashion and enhance illusions of mass perception (thus creating an appearance of function) within the macro economy (which is harder to provide contextual illusion to microeconomies for reasons not worth going into right here).
Governor, please stop this game of chicken, which is already set to effect thousands of children and millions of people adversely.
If the Republicans in congress are able to create a compromise that you then Veto, I would imagine the other aspect of our democracy could come into effect, much like it did for Gov. Davis, IMPEACHMENT!
You have a moral responsibility to end your governorship in a responsible manner, even if your political career my be over.
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