Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts

Monday, November 10, 2008

Esoteric Critique for McCain reserved for after the Campaign (Part 2)

MESSAGE, Message, and message....

To illuminate my next critique, I will first choose the thing that Obama did (amongst other things [but in this case from strictly a marketing point of view]) oh so very right: He picked a brand identity and stuck with it.



If memory (yes, I am not googling it or whatever) serves me, then I believe he had the trademark blue "O" with the red stripes of the American flag as hills (or waves) more or less at his announcement in Springfield. I also believe it was fairly early on (before Iowa) wherein he used the one word slogan "Change." He stuck by those now famous messages throughout his effort.

Hilary gave him as stiff a challenge as she could (and still hope for a personal political future aside from her husbands shadow), and barely lost in her efforts to peel away at the brand of a cool intellectual who stood firmly for change and chose most words carefully most of the time.

She did throw the kitchen sink at him. But she also tried (again from memory only) the better part of half a dozen slogans, and dozens of various straw man sticking points with varying degrees of truth buried within the message-- all designed to run against Obama.

Last mention of Obama here, and then onto McCain, Obama (and his exploratory committee) seemed to calibrate the message (brand identity+slogan+platform) squarely against ALL COMERS, not just his next nearest competition.

McCain's team in March clearly failed to assess that (A) Obama's message was fairly consistent throughout a grueling Democratic primary, and (B) his Brand and Identity were fairly unshakable. That would seem to imply that (1) In order to appear more unshakable, unflappable, AND experienced a granite bedrock and marble foundation of a message needed to be developed during that down time from March to June, and (2) It was going to be an all out effort which required coordination and harmonization at every level-- especially the ground.

So, lets focus just on McCain: identity = servant to the nation, war hero, and maverick; slogan and platform... well that never quite got straightened out by the "Straight Talk Express."

If he was going to continue riding around in the STE, then a heavy dose of Straight Talk would have really been helpful. I mean how high would his polling numbers have shot up if he had said, "I know President Bush has been unpopular, hey personally I think he's even a bit of a Jerk, but in order to win these wars you have to make some unpopular decisions."

What part of that statement could the Dems have disagreed with? You then refocus on the messy details of how to win wars.

My Proviso here is that I am assuming the Pubs had some sort of strategy (other than continuing to prolong the war and siphon tax dollars to no bid contracted cronies for shoddy work and non-accountability), but if I am wrong then moreover they deserved to lose!

On the Economy (and I already suggested that Romney should have been the VP... there would have been a much more contentious battle in the West, Rust Belt, and to a lesser degree New England), if he were to have said, "I know there are some people struggling, but its the job of the government to give a hand-up-- not a hand out!"

Again, thats an oldy but a moldy from the Reagan playbook Maverick 2000 McCain would agree with, but somewhere the message was coopted to please the Rovian Sith Hordes (a.k.a. NeoCons) and so any talk of assistance to anyone (used here to include the "personhood" of corporations) not worth billions was taboo.

On Immigration, "My friends, I could prattle on about my long record on immigration and human rights, but lets get one thing straight-- We need to fix this broken down Immigration and border system."

Vague enough to not completely freak out the borders only crowd, but tongue firmly in cheek enough to give the wink to his true base of Pro-Life Hispanics who have some concerns for workers rights, and deep fear for some of the more draconian suggestions posited by the NeoCons.

Finally, although this may not be entirely "message," but it fits into the category of "Non-verbal." When you go into your convention a landslide victor, your party needs to conform its platform to your overarching gameplan and strategy.

That most certainly didnt happen.

No, as became clear on September 15th, McCain surrounded himself with people who could tolerate his bullshit, and (probably) feared him enough to not be able to simply point out his errors or fallacies. Someone had approved a script saying "The fundamentals of the economy are strong," when most economists worth their salt were at least tipping their hand that the "R" word was around the corner if not nearer. What on Gawds green monster sign were they thinking?

Here are some great stats about how to measure Recession, and why I would never have ever approved of that message (if McSame was my boy), as we have technically been in Recession for years.

He then panicked, "suspended" his campaign (even though in fact there were commercials, surrogates, and Palin romping around), scuttled a deal brokered in Congress with the President, and then resumed his campaign only to vote FOR the bailout. Think "My Pet Goat," on Viagra, uppers, and Scotch....

I have to believe that the absolute shit sandwich (all of those many many served to him 'special order' over the years) that McCain was served as part of the 2000 campaign and its subsequent events (including the absolutely dishonorable attack against fellow Vietnam Hero Kerry) had (as they say in Poker) put on Tilt a personality and temperament which could really not afford to be on Tilt.

So what possible message could you construct with all of those facts?

Suggestion for the trial balloon meeting that should have been on or around March 25th, 2008;

It takes a nation of millions to hold us back.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Esoteric Critique for McCain reserved for after the Campaign (Part 1)

Standing next to Palin (on her way up the popularity Elevator, that also went down with unfortuitous timing for the campaigns purposes), especially at the beginning, he reminded me of Pappy O'Daniel in O Brother Where Art Thou in the finale;



I mean, that scene doesnt show it, but after this excerpt when Pappy gets on stage he literally is warming his hands by the warmth of the Soggy Bottom Boy's popularity and fanfare... and that is exactly what McCain did wrong from an image point of view-- he looked desperate (and it seemed that he believed the plain and handsome Governor of Alaska was his saving grace).

Recall the scene towards the very beginning when O'Daniel's team discusses the opposition, and the conclusion was, "you cant get Reform if you are the incumbent candidate." (if I recalled the quote correctly.)

Whoever was in control of the imagery of the Straight Talk Express should have been fired after The Green Monster, and I think may even have been-- that said the young and to some attractive Governor only served to further demonstrate the age and wounds of the veteran Senator.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Monday Morning Quarterbacking for the Losing Team(s)

If I am Lombardi, in the halftime lockerroom (where I left off on August 1st), and speaking with my losing team that just had enough time on the clock to throw two Hail Mary's, and the first one was intercepted (where upon the opposite side {Dems}) then took a knee to run out the clock (twice because we did have one time out remaining when we hurled the ball to the two yardline) sending us into that lockerroom where we still had a real chance, then my speech would have gone something like this:

Ladies and Gentlemen, and the Rovian Sith Hordes, we are down, but not out by any means.

First, we have to decide are we a running game offense (ergo true Mavericks with a smash mouth offense), or a finesse team (ergo traditional divide and conquer partisan and identity politics), because at this point I am unsure if we can afford to do both.

The conventions are around the corner, and we have to make a smart pick for Veep... If we go smashmouth, true grit, honesty, leadership and the ability to speak our centrist truth to power I say lets get someone like Lieberman (how's his knee?) in there to lend true across the aisle credibility, an appeal to moderates and many conservatives, yet an ability to bark at the opposition on their terms. That would show 'em.

However, as confusing as that would be to the opponents, run play football is a hard way to have to catch up... lets get a guy who raised our game, kept us on our feet, and still has enough credibility on things we are weak in (like Economics) to make plays that pick apart defense... Romney.

Okay so heres the plan;

After the nomination, Romney you work the North West starting in every town in Utah in an ever expanding circular motion until you meet McCain at the end of his Viva la South tour (which starts in Florida, covers all of Dixie and then some, and meet up in Arizona). After Arizona for about a week we will reassess on where you are weakest, and let you do some joint appearances to rally huge crowds... after all we dont want you guys appearing at the same place all the time {oops}.

That said, a Veep Pick victory does not make...

Our key problem here has been message. We are trying to beat them at their game, trying to coopt that "Change" mantle. That doesnt work when weve been in Washington for over two decades and in power for a majority of that time.

Mmmm... lets see, oh yeah, our opponent is weak in experience. Rather than challenge (or appear to challenge) his patriotism, heritage, beliefs, or even to a lesser extent his philosophy (because lets get real our parties are still more or less two different sides of the same coin), lets instead hammer out a simple bumper sticker slogan (or two) that gets to the core....

Okay coach what do we have? (-offensive coordinator speaks-)

Great. Yeah, they have one word, so let us choose one word: Stability.

That will be all we need to do to reassure our conservative base who is a little squirrley that Romney didnt win, play neutral enough with moderates and independents, and if anything weird happens in the world, like God forbid a political crisis or economic crisis {puke}, we can be seen as above the fray in our stable bunker and hold tight to our consistent brand identity of "Stability." Also this wont offend the remaining two-hundred thousand people who believe in the current administration, yet allow us to make critiques freely of that administration should it handle such challenges poorly (but that hasnt happened, nor could it happen again {couldn't it?}).

Finally, defense (money and organization).

Team we need to really step it up. They have us on money, but organizationally, once we get our coalition with a bee in its bonnet-- we cant be beat!

It also strikes me that instead of rallying a get out the vote drive in only the last 72 hours may not be enough, so lets just start all our ground game stuff right on the heels of our convention.

All right, go out there and win one for the Gipper... no not George Gipp!


...of course I surely did not want this to become a competitive contest.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Playing the "Hail Mary," for the Halftime Scoreboard

John McCain has stepped up some very negative imagery. No, not his stumbles, goofs, and foot-in-mouth whereby he shoots himself in the foot to barely escape suicide.... He is on the offense throwing some long bombs to the end zone, even though his team is down by just two touchdowns and its only a minute before half time.

The crowd likes the near misses, the forty yard sprint dashes, the stunt plays... but why open this up now?

Dont the Pubs usually keep their powder dry until the last quarter?

My theories:

(1) McCain is officially desperate. The Obama obsession in the MSM is like a shiny object flying in the sky. Even though its scary, they aren't sure what the UFO is, it is fascinating. Never mind that something like 70% of the coverage (of which he probably gets only 10 ~ 20% more coverage than McCain, and that McCain's coverage is about half positive/half negative) can be interpreted as neutral or even negative... kinda like, "will the aliens eat us when they land?" Or as McCain recently goofed his attempt to describe the example of loaded or begging question, 'when did you stop beating your wife?' In Obama's case there is a litany of viral and implied begging questions such as "why is he not a Muslim?" (For point of reference, not one word in the MSM about McCains free pass on his declaration on being a "Baptist.")

(2) McCain finally hired someone who gets the power of the new media, albeit a rather sinister disciple of Rove, or some other Sith Lord. By spending a million dollars on the production and airing of a local/regional yet ludicrous advertisement (not to be confused with a lude interlude by Ludacris on Obama's behalf), and then having the MSM pick up the loaded question, for instance "why isn't Obama like Brittany and Paris?" The ad dollar is stretched out very well.

As you can tell my cynicism and pure observation (intention is as intention does) informs me that it is more of the latter that has the QB for McCain's team airing out long bombs to the endzone in hopes of tiring out the backfield defense. But there are some problems with this strategy as well.

(a) McCain prima facae does indeed look desperate. As much as he has temporarily short circuited the dialogue betwixt the factions by begging the question, his questions are clearly inherent fallacies: Obama rejects my superficial Gas Tax Holiday, Tax Prices are rising, therefore Obama is responsible for gas prices; Obama is a celebrity, many celebrities today are vacant mental space, therefore there is something unsubstantial about Obama; and now we have Obama speaks with inspirational rhetoric, the bible is filled with inspirational rhetoric, therefore Obama thinks he is a biblical figure. These are all undistributed middle fallacies, with a touch of the ole straw man for good luck.

As you can see, McCain is fond of this illogic, and even made a DOUBLE UNDISTRIBUTED MIDDLE FALLACY; A. (Right wing) elite professors inhabit Hyde Park. B. Obama lives in Hyde Park. C. Obama is a Liberal Senator. Therefore, these (A) Elite are (C) Liberals, and (B) Obama is (A) Elite. Obama may be a Liberal who lives amongst Elitists, but that does not prove him an Elite. Also, Just because these (Right Wing) Elitists live in the same neighborhood as a Liberal Senator does not make them "liberal."

From a strictly logical point of view it seems McCain has conceded the high ground to Obama in terms of Logic.

(b) America loves violence and aggression. Problem is that you better believe it would be very very very easy to make a goofy old man highlight reel of McCain (and its pretty much been out there since March). The difference is that most of that anti-McCain stuff has been through surrogates. What is shocking that McCain would go so schoolyard dirty so very early. It can very easily come back to haunt him with an equal and parallel violence, only closer to election day.

(c) An expansion of that last point, if the debates were going to be a tough slog for McCain before, he now will have to stand there, grimmace, and repeat the lines from the commercials which are (i) illogical, (ii) lame, and (iii) will have been thoroughly hashed out by the time of the actual debate.

I believe the Pubs have fumbled in the greater context.

They have surrendered the high ground, and now accuse Obama of playing the race card to drag him down.

They have lost the battle of logic and persuasion by logical means, so they are now at name calling and spreading rumors.

McCain will have to have a stellar 97 days of quick wit, full thought, and reasonable temperament-- none of which he is particularly known for-- in order to regain these losses.

Dont forget that for every Hail Mary play that the DB's and Safeties have to run, so do your receivers, backs and line men.

Maybe this is McCain's last stand? If so expect murkier and uglier depictions of the straw man McCain thinks he is running against for POTUS.

BETTING LINE: Watch for Team Obama's rope-a-dope by the second debate where these chickens come home to roost.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

3 Scenarios

Interesting stuff from 538 showing that there are only eleven realistic battlegrounds based on the polling data (flawed, subjective, and not a real final predictor of anything more than the current psyche of America). It states that the eleven states are technically McCain's to lose, but these states are definitely buckling under the momentum from the Obama-DNC machine v.2008.

I assume first, Obama wins these eleven plus those leaning, trending, or already in his court; then I look only at the historical election trends; and finally the eleven plus those already in McCains court.


407 – 131 Obama: Democrats Best Case;




289 - 249 Obama: Trend Predictor using this data, and giving FL to McCain (which seems could trend either way);




286 - 252 McCain: Republicans Best Case;




Conclusion:

If case #2 is the average of what can be more or less expected in november then Republicans have a natural 15% deficit to overcome. That said in terms of the popular vote, McCain would need to be polling to win by no less than 3% in order to feel safe... or safer.

Its a tall task as that would mean he has to make up a 7-point gap just to appear competitive... let alone be much for anything approaching inevitable.

At this time, it is clearly Obama's to lose... a truly ugly situation for the future of the republicans.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Election 2008 Metric: 5'9" -v- 6'1.5"

I am the same height as Obama, and don’t consider myself a height-ist, as my 5’1” mother would call it, but I know it can at times be advantageous.

Only two 20th century Presidents have been 5’ 9” or less: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heights_of_United_States_presidential_candidates

It’s not that McCain (5'9") can not win because of his height, rather that the height factor will work against him as it relates to perceptions of strength and power when compared side by side with Obama (6'1.5").

Another reason that Obama should accept the invitation to Town Hall Meetings (with the proviso that its not a fixed crowd; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/12/mccain-stacks-fox-news-to_n_106881.html) aside from the probability of being able to perform equally or better than McCain, would be to allow the inherent tendency for people to interpret height as power to be demonstrated.

Friday, June 6, 2008

More States In Play Than The Media Would Have You Think

We can see (http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do) from fundraising activities the “voting with the pocketbook,” when juxtaposed with current polling data that a clear, if not much more chaotic, picture of the oncoming battles comes into view.


I. Fundraising Leader Board (Notables only—not all states listed):

07Q2;

Obama – KY, TN, VA, MO, ND, MT, and CO
McCain – NH
Clinton – WV, OH, IN, OK


07Q3;

Obama – KY, IN, WI, NH, ND, SD, NE
McCain – MN, MI, OK
Clinton – FL, NC, VA, WV, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX and CO


07Q4;

Obama – WI, IA, and MN
McCain – Only LA, and AZ (notable in its own right)
Clinton – GA, VA, WV, IN, MO, AR, and CO


08Q1 (All Listed);

McCain – FL, MI, MS, LA, MO, and AZ
Romney – UT
Clinton – AL, AR, OK, and NE

Obama – ALL OTHERS


II. The Money Map:

Number of DEM STATES; 40
Number of REP STATES; 10


III. NEW Regional Winners (redefinition of the regions by money-winner);

DEMOCRATS

Pacific (AK, HI, WA, OR, CA) = Obama
Select South (GA, NC, VA, KY) = Obama
Great Lakes (PA, OH, IN, IL, WI, and MN) = Obama
Great Plains (MO, IA, KS, NE, and ND) = Obama
Liberal Mountain West (CO and MT) = Obama

Gulf (TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL) = Clinton
Clinton Country (WV, MD, DC, NJ, RI, and NY) = Clinton

Delaware = Biden

New Mexico = Richardson


REPUBLICANS

Romney Country (UT, NV, ID, WY) = Romney

McCain Country (AZ, MS, and SC) = McCain

South Dakota = Giuliani

Tennessee = Thompson

Michigan = Romney



IV. If we now default all Republican Winners to McCain, and Democratic Winners to Obama, and then compare with (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) today’s polling data (deducting opposite, close, and statistical dead heats) we have the following potential Toss-Up States:

AK, NV, SC, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, MT, and what looks to be the belle of the ball MI.


V. By Party the following Contested States where Money Winners through 08Q1, but are dead heat or losing the polls;

DEM: AK, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, and MT

REP: MI and SC


VI. Starting first with Money Leader board, then overturning by Poll results we have the following Electoral College Estimate:

Obama: 317
McCain: 221


VII. Defining the Battles by Region:

Pacific: Obama may be able to make AK competitive, as part of a Grand Pacifica strategy, but his time would be better spent sucking already Dem-leaning NV into a Continental Pacific Time Zone sweep.

Romney Country: McCain can’t afford to take for granted NV, or AZ, for that mater, being surrounded by Obama states to the West and Southeast.

McCain Country: He has a battle in South Carolina and the South in general.

Gulf: As Obama begins to actually campaign there, watch the battle in FL drain the McCain coffers… he can’t afford to lose FL—a big market with lots of media expenses.

Clinton Country: Obama will let WV go in exchange for VA and SC, but if he can create an effective Appalachian strategy he may be able to convince WV to swing with his version of Hillary’s programs and even put up a fight in KY.

Select South: Expect this to be the next place where McCain, if he expects to be competitive, has to fight a real ground battle with real dollars. Obama has a shot at all but KY, even though he has been in the Money over and over again there, and McCain needs to run a clean sweep for any hope at a Republican victory.

Great Lakes: McCain really hopes to hurt Obama here (his home court) especially if we include MI. IN will be competitive, and the RNC hopes to put MN in play with convention location.

Great Plains: First Major Battle Ground Zone. MO, IA, KS, NE, SD and ND could break either way as individual states with specific needs.

Mountain West (including Romney Country): Second Major Battle Ground Zone. CO, NM, MT and NV in the one corner and UT, WY, and ID in the other (and AZ in McCain’s column barring total meltdown).


VIII. The Emerging War

McCain’s only real Attack:

(A) Clean sweep of the (old definition) “Mason Dixon Line” South, including VA, FL, and SC
(B) Full attack of the (old definition) “Rust Belt” to win PA, OH, and/or MI
(C) Defend (old definition) “Marlboro Country” (MT, NV, NM, and CO)


Obama’s Defense:

(A) Expand the Liberal Mountain West to include NV, MT, and maintain the momentum for pickups in NM and CO

-and-

(B) Take at least one Southern state such as FL, GA, SC, NC, or VA
(C) Or win 50% or better of the Great Plains (IA, MO, SD for instance)

-and-

(D) Hold the Great Lakes and North East (with or without IN)


IX. Battleground States to Watch

FL, MI, VA, PA, OH, NV, IA, SC, NC, IN, MT, CO, NM, MO, SD, NH, GA and I would also argue that LA may come into play sooner or later.



X. CONCLUSION:

Barring a major lapse in judgment from his opponent, McCain has to draw battle lines upon the old ways and methods to have any real chance of winning an Electoral College Majority. He is outgunned in fundraising, and probably outclassed in Campaign Management, Ground Game Organization, and Message. Therefore, expect to hear a lot of the old appeals to gun owners, anti-abortionists, and family values in order to attempt a last hurrah at seeing things in terms of South and North, Liberal Elite and Working Class, and don’t count out some of the ugly tongue-in-cheek de facto racial elements designed to distract to rear their heads once or twice before November.

Obama has to continue to use the new definitions of a borderless society (Internet), which does not confine or define its citizenry by gender, race, or class and run a positive and “hope-based” campaign. If he can stay on message without major missteps or miscalculations, then this is his War to lose.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

McCain's Green Monster: Third Example (of American Logical Fallacy)

http://weblogs.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/blog/2008/06/mccain_speech_starting_now_ful.html
(Comments in Parenthesis)

Good evening from the great city of New Orleans. (False – He was in Kenner) Tonight, we can say with confidence the primary season is over, and the general election campaign has begun. I commend both Senators Obama and Clinton for the long, hard race they have run. Senator Obama has impressed many Americans with his eloquence and his spirited campaign. Senator Clinton has earned great respect for her tenacity and courage. The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received. (Emotional Appeal) As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach. I am proud to call her my friend. Pundits and party elders have declared that Senator Obama will be my opponent. (Masked Man—Obama won, Party elders and Pundits have lauded him, therefore Obama won because of Party Elders and Pundits) He will be a formidable one. But I'm ready for the challenge, and determined to run this race in a way that does credit to our campaign and to the proud, decent and patriotic people I ask [sic?] to lead.

The decision facing Americans in this election couldn't be more important to the future security and prosperity of American families. This is, indeed, a change election. No matter who wins this election, the direction of this country is going to change dramatically. But, the choice is between the right change and the wrong change; between going forward and going backward. (Not a fallacy, but an attempt similar to the McCain’s new slogan [A Leader We Can Believe In –v- Change We Can Believe In {Obama}] to co-opt the message from his opponent so technically a Tu Quoque Implied)

America has seen tough times before. We've always known how to get through them. And we've always believed our best days are ahead of us. I believe that still. But we must rise to the occasion, as we always have; change what must be changed; and make the future better than the past.

The right change (Redefinition, the implication being his opponent advocates “an incorrect change”) recognizes that many of the policies and institutions of our government have failed. They have failed to keep up with the challenges of our time because many of these policies were designed for the problems and opportunities of the mid to late 20th Century, before the end of the Cold War; before the revolution in information technology and rise of the global economy. The right kind of change will initiate widespread and innovative reforms in almost every area of government policy -- health care, energy, the environment, the tax code, our public schools, our transportation system, disaster relief, government spending and regulation, diplomacy, the military and intelligence services. Serious and far-reaching reforms are needed in so many areas of government to meet our own challenges in our own time. (He has now defined “change” as many would perceive it, but again has attempted to link himself with the redefined “right,” which is also evocative to a political stance [versus “left,” or “liberal”])

The irony is that Americans have been experiencing a lot of change in their lives attributable to these historic events, and some of those changes have distressed many American families -- job loss, failing schools, prohibitively expensive health care, pensions at risk, entitlement programs approaching bankruptcy, rising gas and food prices, to name a few. But your government often acts as if it is completely unaware of the changes and hardships in your lives. (The irony is he has been a part of that Government!) And when government does take notice, often it only makes matters worse. (Appeal to Consequences—because things have been getting worse, and the government sometimes takes notice, then the government makes matters worse) For too long, we have let history outrun our government's ability to keep up with it. The right change will stop impeding Americans from doing what they have always done: overcome every obstacle to our progress, turn challenges into opportunities, and by our own industry, imagination and courage make a better country and a safer world the an we inherited. (This part of the “Redefinition” is technically apt, and although ‘the right change’ is an awkward concept, as ‘change’ technically implies an improvement or redefinition over current circumstances [which obviously belong to a prior set of “change(s)”], and his opponent’s concept of ‘change’ would probably agree to this sentence in its meanings. Now follows a laundry list which although many would more or less agree with, is platitudinal and populist enough to be technically an Appeal to Nature, even though this is forgivable in a candidate to POTUS:)

To keep our nation prosperous, strong and growing we have to rethink, reform and reinvent: the way we educate our children; train our workers; deliver health care services; support retirees; fuel our transportation network; stimulate research and development; and harness new technologies.

To keep us safe we must rebuild the structure and mission of our military; the capabilities of our intelligence and law enforcement agencies; the reach and scope of our diplomacy; the capacity of all branches of government to defend us. We need to strengthen our alliances, and preserve our moral credibility.

We must also prepare, far better than we have, to respond quickly and effectively to a natural calamity. When Americans confront a catastrophe they have a right to expect basic competence from their government. Firemen and policemen should be able to communicate with each other in an emergency. We should be able to deliver bottled water to dehydrated babies and rescue the infirm from a hospital with no electricity. Our disgraceful failure to do so here in New Orleans exposed the incompetence of government at all levels to meet even its most basic responsibilities.

The wrong change looks not to the future but to the past for solutions that have failed us before and will surely fail us again. (So, now we have the final definition of “right change,” and now he begins a Texas Sharpshooter process—drawing a target around the policy proposals [some of which I will suggest are Straw Man fallacies {fallacy within a fallacy} further weakening the speech] of the opponent and using an Ad Nauseam refrain, ‘that's not change we can believe in,’ as the ostensible bulls-eye) I have a few years on my opponent, so I am surprised that a young man has bought in to so many failed ideas. Like others before him, he seems to think government is the answer to every problem; that government should take our resources and make our decisions for us. That type of change doesn't trust Americans to know what is right or what is in their own best interests. (Straw Man) It's the attitude of politicians who are sure of themselves but have little faith in the wisdom, decency and common sense of free people. That attitude created the unresponsive bureaucracies of big government in the first place. And that's not change we can believe in. (Ad Nauseam)

You will hear from my opponent's campaign in every speech, every interview, every press release that I'm running for President Bush's third term. You will hear every policy of the President described as the Bush-McCain policy. Why does Senator Obama believe it's so important to repeat that idea over and over again? (here is a counter argument to an Ad Nauseam refrain from his opponent, tellingly this will define the answer as to why he will rely upon Ad Nauseam argumentation throughout this speech and probably throughout his campaign—because he is defining his understanding of the tactic) Because he knows it's very difficult to get Americans to believe something they know is false. So he tries to drum it into your minds by constantly repeating it rather than debate honestly the very different directions he and I would take the country. But the American people didn't get to know me yesterday, as they are just getting to know Senator Obama. (Fake Precision—claiming that the process “getting to know’ requires some pre-defined time frame) They know I have a long record of bipartisan problem solving. They've seen me put our country before any President -- before any party -- before any special interest -- before my own interest. They might think me an imperfect servant of our country, which I surely am. But I am her servant first, last and always. (This is almost an Affirmative Conclusion from a Negative Premiss, but he does allude to his “long record,” therefore, although not proving it here, he asks us to refer to public record to take his point that because he sometimes disagrees with party or president he therefore is a servant to the nation. He then lays out incidentals defining his Premiss, but he doesn’t actually complete the conclusion “I am her servant,” rather he defines by implication his servitude as “the security of the country I have defended all my adult life.”)

I have worked with the President to keep our nation safe. But he and I have not seen eye to eye on many issues. We've disagreed over the conduct of the war in Iraq and the treatment of detainees; over out of control government spending and budget gimmicks; over energy policy and climate change; over defense spending that favored defense contractors over the public good.

I disagreed strongly with the Bush administration's mismanagement of the war in Iraq. I called for the change in strategy that is now, at last, succeeding where the previous strategy had failed miserably. I was criticized for doing so by Republicans. I was criticized by Democrats. I was criticized by the press. But I don't answer to them. I answer to you. And I would be ashamed to admit I knew what had to be done in Iraq to spare us from a defeat that would endanger us for years, but I kept quiet because it was too politically hard for me to do. No ambition is more important to me than the security of the country I have defended all my adult life.

Senator Obama opposed the new strategy, and, after promising not to, voted to deny funds to the soldiers who have done a brilliant and brave job of carrying it out. Yet in the last year we have seen the success of that plan as violence has fallen to a four year low; Sunni insurgents have joined us in the fight against al Qaeda; the Iraqi Army has taken the lead in places once lost to Sunni and Shia extremists; and the Iraqi Government has begun to make progress toward political reconciliation. (Technically this is an Ad Nauseam Reflection of the Redefinition [of Success], which has occurred throughout the War—for example, ‘We only lost 15 soldiers last month.’ The assertion that “only” makes the death of any service person reasonable to accept is in many minds a FALSE PREMISS, therefore in my book an Ipsedixitism)

None of this progress would have happened had we not changed course over a year ago. And all of this progress would be lost if Senator Obama had his way and began to withdraw our forces from Iraq without concern for conditions on the ground and the advice of commanders in the field. (Lets set aside the Straw Man argument that Obama and Democrats would recklessly remove forces to pick apart and even greater fallacy: If “Progress” is the in reference to the fallacies in the above paragraph, which I have shown is an Ad Nauseam Redefinition, then “None of,” and “All of,” become statements in McCain’s speech which would be redefined or translated logically into; ‘The War would have NOT happened;’ and in the second sentence then instead of the rough translation for progress [War] being the opposite of lost, hence won, there would be no need to win a war never started) Americans ought to be concerned about the judgment of a presidential candidate who says he's ready to talk, in person and without conditions, with tyrants from Havana to Pyongyang, (This is an Ad Nauseam of a Straw Man which effectively uses Fake Precision regarding his opponents prior statements and subsequent contextual redefinitions) but hasn't traveled to Iraq to meet with General Petraeus (This is an Ad Nauseam Style Over Substance Fallacy and when asked in question form “Mr. Obama, why haven’t you traveled to Iraq to meet with General Patraeus?” Is also Begging The Question. This Ad Nauseam has often shown up as “Obama ‘refuses’ to meet,” when in fact Obama interacted with the General as recently as April 8th, 2008 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/08/obama-holds-first-committ_n_95593.html) , and see for himself the progress he threatens to reverse (This use of “progress” an Appeal to Fear now puts us into a fallacy-within a fallacy-within a fallacy-within a fallacy [Texas Sharpshooter-Redefinition of Successful War-Style Over Substance-Appeal to Fear] *ouch*).

I know Americans are tired of this war. I don't oppose a reckless withdrawal from Iraq because I'm indifferent to the suffering war inflicts on too many American families. (Again a Straw Man implication that his opponent supports “a reckless withdrawal”) I hate war. And I know very personally how terrible its costs are. But I know, too, that the course Senator Obama advocates could draw us into a wider war with even greater sacrifices; put peace further out of reach, (technically another Ad Nauseam for which there is no proof therefore I am categorizing this as a Probabilistic Fallacy of some kind combined with Ipsedixitism, unless the Republicans have some sort of crystal ball they would like to make known) and Americans back in harm's way.

I take America's economic security as seriously as I do her physical security. For eight years the federal government has been on a spending spree that added trillions to the national debt. It spends more and more of your money on programs that have failed again and again to keep up with the changes confronting American families. Extravagant spending on things that are not the business of government indebts us to other nations; fuels inflation; raises interest rates; and encourages irresponsibility. I have opposed wasteful spending by both parties and the Bush administration. (Proof by Assertion, Ipsedixitism: I understand the voting record of Mr. McCain is ~88% in line with the Administration’s recommendations, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/12/201619/502/425/435878, but am open to facts being divulged to prove this claim) Senator Obama has supported it and proposed more of his own. I want to freeze discretionary spending until we have completed top to bottom reviews of all federal programs to weed out failing ones. (A Tu Quoque Straw Man where the position of his opponent is being simultaneously improved upon and assumed) Senator Obama opposes that reform. I opposed subsidies that favor big business over small farmers and tariffs on imported products that have greatly increased the cost of food. Senator Obama supports these billions of dollars in corporate subsidies and the tariffs that have led to rising grocery bills for American families. (Whether this is a factual statement or not in the first and last, the assumption ‘grocery bills rise because of corporate subsidies because of my opponent,’ in this instance is another Affirmative Conclusion from a Negative Premiss), That's not change we can believe in. (Ad Nauseam)

No problem is more urgent today than America's dependence on foreign oil. It threatens our security, our economy and our environment. The next President must be willing to break completely with the energy policies not just of the Bush Administration, but the administrations that preceded his, and lead a great national campaign to put us on a course to energy independence. We must unleash the creativity and genius of Americans, and encourage industries to pursue alternative, non-polluting and renewable energy sources, where demand will never exceed supply.

Senator Obama voted for the same policies that created the problem. In fact, he voted for the energy bill promoted by President Bush and Vice President Cheney, which gave even more breaks to the oil industry. I opposed it because I know we won't achieve energy independence by repeating the mistakes of the last half century. (I am not a fact checker, but that was the most logical statement of the speech, and now we get our Ad Nauseam…) That's not change we can believe in.

With forward thinking Democrats and Republicans, I proposed a climate change policy that would greatly reduce our dependence on oil. Our approach was opposed by President Bush, and by leading Democrats, and it was defeated by opposition from special interests that favor Republicans and those that favor Democrats. (Guilt by Association, he does not confirm or deny Mr. Obama’s position on the premisses) Senator Obama might criticize special interests that give more money to Republicans. But you won't often see him take on those that favor him. (Two Wrongs Make a Right—this I assume would excuse McCain’s own lobbyist under prior employ? http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/moveon_ad_demands_mccain_fire.php) If America is going to achieve energy independence, we need a President with a record of putting the nation's interests before the special interests of either party. I have that record. (I find this assertion dubious, and by referring to the record as proof will leave it to Fact Checkers) Senator Obama does not. (Tu Quoque)

Senator Obama proposes to keep spending money on programs that make our problems worse (Loaded Words—I am sure Obama’s platform does not suggest his intention is to make things worse) and create new ones (Subject-Object Shift, that the “problems” not the “programs” become the subject that will be “created”) that are modeled (Straw Man—no proof offered therefore also an Ipsedixitism) on big government programs that created much of the fiscal mess we are in. He plans to pay for these increases by raising taxes on seniors, parents, small business owners and every American with even a modest investment in the market. (Straw Man, unless I missed something on the Obama Website that indicates that tax policy, again I am not a fact checker) He doesn't trust us to make decisions for ourselves and wants the government to make them for us. (Straw Man) And that's not change we can believe in. (Ad Nauseam)

Senator Obama thinks we can improve health care by driving Americans into a new system of government orders, regulations and mandates. I believe we can make health care more available, affordable and responsive to patients by breaking from inflationary practices, insurance regulations, and tax policies that were designed generations ago, and by giving families more choices over their care. His plan represents the old ways of government. Mine trusts in the common sense of the American people. (This would be plausible… if you don’t understand Economics. My critique in this editing is regarding the fallacious nature of Mr. McCain’s opening salvo in the General Campaign for President of These United States of America, and my general disgust with the lack of cogent argumentation from the Republican side. I have studied Economics, and it almost defies imagination as to how by “breaking insurance regulations” we would somehow have a more fair and affordable system? At the end of the day an Ipsedixitism)

Senator Obama pretends we can address the loss of manufacturing jobs by repealing trade agreements and refusing to sign new ones; that we can build a stronger economy by limiting access to our markets and giving up access to foreign markets. (Straw Man—will any candidate please say words to the effect, “My opponent on May 3rd [such and such a date] said, and I quote….”) The global economy exists and is not going away. We either compete in it or we lose more jobs, more businesses, more dreams. We lose the future. (Appeal to Fear) He's an intelligent man, and he must know how foolish it is to think Americans can remain prosperous without opening new markets to our goods and services. But he feels he must defer to the special interests that support him. (I don’t even know where to begin…Modal Logic Fallacy of some sort, “He knows,” and “He feels.” Straw Man, but really? You know exactly how your opponent feels and what he thinks specifically? Very psychic of you.) That's not change we can believe in. (Ad Nauseam)

Lowering trade barriers to American goods and services creates more and better jobs; keeps inflation under control; keeps interest rates low; and makes more goods affordable to more Americans. We won't compete successfully by using old technology to produce old goods. We'll succeed by knowing what to produce and inventing new technologies to produce it. (That almost made sense, but really it was a string of assertions loosely associated with each other, therefore an Ipsedixitism)

We are not people who believe only in the survival of the fittest. (Hasty Generalization—America tends to have all beliefs in play amongst its populous, no matter how insignificantly small the minority, thanks to the First Amendment) Work in America is more than a paycheck; it a source of pride, self-reliance and identity. (Another Hasty Generalization—therefore ‘in America no one works to live…’ unless this is a hidden No True Scotsman, as in “No True American only works to live”) But making empty promises to bring back lost jobs gives nothing to the unemployed worker except false hope. (Appeal to Fear which leads into… Ad Nauseam) That's not change we can believe in. Reforming from top to bottom unemployment insurance and retraining programs that were designed for the 1950s, making use of our community colleges to train people for new opportunities will help workers who've lost a job that won't come back, find a job that won't go away. (Ipsedixitism)

My friends, we're not a country that would rather go back than forward. We're the world's leader, and leaders don't hide from history. They make history. But if we're going to lead, we have to reform a government that has lost its ability to help us do so. The solution to our problems isn't to reach back to the 1960s and 70s for answers. (Raising the spectre of the [after talking about the ‘50’s no less] 60s and 70s is the ground where in the 90s McCain gained his political footing so he has created an almost hidden Appeal to Motive in the form of some Straw Man position Obama and his supporters supposedly have) In just a few years in office, Senator Obama has accumulated the most liberal voting record in the Senate. But the old, tired, big government policies he seeks to dust off and call new won't work in a world that has changed dramatically since they were last tried and failed. (It might actually have been a successful argument except for the semantic word choice here. In trying for Loaded Words such as Big Government, McCain has walked into a Bear Trap regarding the truth of the current Administration having created The Biggest Government in US History, http://mises.org/story/2116, to which he was a participant, and by being in the Opposition Party to the Administration his Opponent does not have the burden of proof for his opposition to Big Government by association) That's not change we can believe in. (Ad Nauseam… thus endeth the Texas Sharpshooter demonstration of “right change”!)

The sweeping reforms of government we need won't occur unless we change the political habits of Washington that have locked us in an endless cycle of bickering and stalemate. Washington is consumed by a hyper-partisanship that treats every serious issue as an opportunity to trade insults; impugn each other's motives; and fight about the next election. This is the game Washington plays. Both parties play it, as do the special interests that support each side. The American people know it's not on the level. For all the problems we face, what frustrates them most about Washington is they don't think we're capable of serving the public interest before our personal ambitions; that we fight for ourselves and not for them. They are sick of the politics of selfishness, stalemate and delay, and they have every right to be. We have to change not only government policies that have failed them, but the political culture that produced them. (Most Americans would agree, although this is Ipsedixitism because none of his points were actually proven)

Both Senator Obama and I promise we will end Washington's stagnant, unproductive partisanship. But one of us has a record of working to do that and one of us doesn't. (More reliance of the “record” for proof, hence an Ipsedixitism) Americans have seen me put aside partisan and personal interests to move this country forward. They haven't seen Senator Obama do the same. (Straw Man) For all his fine words and all his promise, he has never taken the hard but right course of risking his own interests for yours; of standing against the partisan rancor on his side to stand up for our country. (Straw Man) He is an impressive man, who makes a great first impression. (Association Fallacy—as if any man who makes a great impression must be self centered) But he hasn't been willing to make the tough calls; to challenge his party; to risk criticism from his supporters to bring real change to Washington. (Ipsedixitism) I have.

When members of my party refused to compromise not on principle but for partisanship, I have sought to do so. When I fought corruption it didn't matter to me if the culprits were Democrats or Republicans. I exposed it and let the chips fall where they may. When I worked on campaign finance and ethics reform, I did so with Democrats and Republicans, even though we were criticized by other members of our parties, who preferred to keep things as they were. I have never refused to work with Democrats simply for the sake of partisanship. I've always known we belong to different parties, not different countries. We are Americans before we are anything else. (Plausible, but still Ipsedixitism… would have been good to name drop some co-sponsors here to make the proof)

I don't seek the presidency on the presumption I'm blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. (Implied Straw Man—the only words missing were, “but Senator Obama does.”) I seek the office with the humility of a man who cannot forget my country saved me. I'll reach out my hand to anyone, Republican or Democrat, who will help me change what needs to be changed; fix what needs to be fixed; and give this country a government as capable and good as the people it is supposed to serve. There is a time to campaign, and a time to govern. If I'm elected President, the era of the permanent campaign of the last sixteen years will end. The era of reform and problem solving will begin. From my first day in office, I'll work with anyone to make America safe, prosperous and proud. (Not surprisingly, even appropriately an Appeal to Tradition) And I won't care who gets the credit as long as America gets the benefit.

I have seen Republicans and Democrats achieve great things together. When the stakes were high and it mattered most, I've seen them work together in common purpose, as we did in the weeks after September 11th. (Ad Nauseam argumentum in terrorem) This kind of cooperation has made all the difference at crucial turns in our history. It has given us hope in difficult times. It has moved America forward. And that, my friends, is the kind of change we need right now. (It then is the conclusion that this is the definition of “right” change, except that his conclusion relies upon an Emotional Appeal designed to harken back to when Bush II had 80%+ popularity, everyone was afraid of the unknown quantity called ‘terrorist,’ and Republicans controlled everything. I then derive that the basic translation of “right change” becomes; lets change back to when Republicans were popular and in control before we threw that out with the false war. I can understand why he would have that message.)

Thank you (you are not welcome, please don’t do this again, because I probably wont!)

(PS- Yes, in the interest of fairness, I will do one of these IFF in listening to an Obama speech my logical senses cringe at the inanity of the words coming from his mouth. Good luck with that.)