Friday, August 1, 2008

Playing the "Hail Mary," for the Halftime Scoreboard

John McCain has stepped up some very negative imagery. No, not his stumbles, goofs, and foot-in-mouth whereby he shoots himself in the foot to barely escape suicide.... He is on the offense throwing some long bombs to the end zone, even though his team is down by just two touchdowns and its only a minute before half time.

The crowd likes the near misses, the forty yard sprint dashes, the stunt plays... but why open this up now?

Dont the Pubs usually keep their powder dry until the last quarter?

My theories:

(1) McCain is officially desperate. The Obama obsession in the MSM is like a shiny object flying in the sky. Even though its scary, they aren't sure what the UFO is, it is fascinating. Never mind that something like 70% of the coverage (of which he probably gets only 10 ~ 20% more coverage than McCain, and that McCain's coverage is about half positive/half negative) can be interpreted as neutral or even negative... kinda like, "will the aliens eat us when they land?" Or as McCain recently goofed his attempt to describe the example of loaded or begging question, 'when did you stop beating your wife?' In Obama's case there is a litany of viral and implied begging questions such as "why is he not a Muslim?" (For point of reference, not one word in the MSM about McCains free pass on his declaration on being a "Baptist.")

(2) McCain finally hired someone who gets the power of the new media, albeit a rather sinister disciple of Rove, or some other Sith Lord. By spending a million dollars on the production and airing of a local/regional yet ludicrous advertisement (not to be confused with a lude interlude by Ludacris on Obama's behalf), and then having the MSM pick up the loaded question, for instance "why isn't Obama like Brittany and Paris?" The ad dollar is stretched out very well.

As you can tell my cynicism and pure observation (intention is as intention does) informs me that it is more of the latter that has the QB for McCain's team airing out long bombs to the endzone in hopes of tiring out the backfield defense. But there are some problems with this strategy as well.

(a) McCain prima facae does indeed look desperate. As much as he has temporarily short circuited the dialogue betwixt the factions by begging the question, his questions are clearly inherent fallacies: Obama rejects my superficial Gas Tax Holiday, Tax Prices are rising, therefore Obama is responsible for gas prices; Obama is a celebrity, many celebrities today are vacant mental space, therefore there is something unsubstantial about Obama; and now we have Obama speaks with inspirational rhetoric, the bible is filled with inspirational rhetoric, therefore Obama thinks he is a biblical figure. These are all undistributed middle fallacies, with a touch of the ole straw man for good luck.

As you can see, McCain is fond of this illogic, and even made a DOUBLE UNDISTRIBUTED MIDDLE FALLACY; A. (Right wing) elite professors inhabit Hyde Park. B. Obama lives in Hyde Park. C. Obama is a Liberal Senator. Therefore, these (A) Elite are (C) Liberals, and (B) Obama is (A) Elite. Obama may be a Liberal who lives amongst Elitists, but that does not prove him an Elite. Also, Just because these (Right Wing) Elitists live in the same neighborhood as a Liberal Senator does not make them "liberal."

From a strictly logical point of view it seems McCain has conceded the high ground to Obama in terms of Logic.

(b) America loves violence and aggression. Problem is that you better believe it would be very very very easy to make a goofy old man highlight reel of McCain (and its pretty much been out there since March). The difference is that most of that anti-McCain stuff has been through surrogates. What is shocking that McCain would go so schoolyard dirty so very early. It can very easily come back to haunt him with an equal and parallel violence, only closer to election day.

(c) An expansion of that last point, if the debates were going to be a tough slog for McCain before, he now will have to stand there, grimmace, and repeat the lines from the commercials which are (i) illogical, (ii) lame, and (iii) will have been thoroughly hashed out by the time of the actual debate.

I believe the Pubs have fumbled in the greater context.

They have surrendered the high ground, and now accuse Obama of playing the race card to drag him down.

They have lost the battle of logic and persuasion by logical means, so they are now at name calling and spreading rumors.

McCain will have to have a stellar 97 days of quick wit, full thought, and reasonable temperament-- none of which he is particularly known for-- in order to regain these losses.

Dont forget that for every Hail Mary play that the DB's and Safeties have to run, so do your receivers, backs and line men.

Maybe this is McCain's last stand? If so expect murkier and uglier depictions of the straw man McCain thinks he is running against for POTUS.

BETTING LINE: Watch for Team Obama's rope-a-dope by the second debate where these chickens come home to roost.

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