The Case for and Probability of a Sanders Presidency

Before we address the reasons Mr. Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist who has been in Congress for years as an Independent and caucused with Democrats, could win The Electoral College (as well as maybe even over 53% of the popular vote) in a General Election, let us start by comparing him to his very real rival for nomination; it is sort of hers to lose, as she has sort of begun to do; Hilary Clinton.

Foreign Policy is considered a big part of how the former Lawyer, Senator and Secretary of State via Pennsylvania, Little Rock, and New York could beat the former Mayor, Congressman, and current Senator from Vermont with a proven track record of say what you mean, and do what you say.

Further, some of the ideas about Sec. Clinton (her actual highest rank in service to the American people) revolve around that she’s the ‘realist.’ 

Except, this supposed argument of foreign policy realism, hinges upon 20^th century political dialogues about communism and the USSR?

I argue, as an Economist, that any Federal Economic Policy is the foundation upon which both Foreign and Domestic Policy rest.

And we have been a mixed capitalist system (meaning a socialist-capitalist democracy) since The Great Depression (1932). 

Sanders freely works with these truths:  Plus, progressive, underserved, and younger voters sense or know these operational truths of economics; therefore, as we enter four score years, since we began guaranteeing our citizens as a national government, Bernie is the actual realist in the race from strictly economic principles, but I digress.

I am unsure that 99%-ers, Millennials, Social Liberals, Progressives, or Economic realists will agree with my reasoning, in part or whole, yet I guess we may all agree on the bottom line... a better future for our grandchildren and their grandchildren— thinking Seven Generations.

So, here’s my case for what will differentiate Sen. Sanders from his rivals through to November:

WARFARE

On this point, almost anyone who doesn’t respond “bomb them (whoever the enemy is) back to the stone age,” as the best answer to any question of foreign threat to our beloved, misunderstood, and often misguided United States of America; the rest of us need to seriously take a moment to review the clarity and undaunted-ness the Senior Senator has had when it actually counted most to committing American blood, treasure, and resources, especially once we became the unilateral superpower.

On the disastrous move by G. W. Bush, The Younger, to go to War in Iraq on false and manufactured intelligence in 2004, Sanders was one of very few, and even fewer of those still serving in Congress, to have seen through the folly in the moment with foresight, and voted ‘No.’ Clinton voted with the establishment in that same vote.

Besides this, he is the Chair of the Veteran’s Affairs Committee, so Sanders knows the true ongoing costs of making a disastrous decision to go to war.

Clinton voted for endless Emergency Powers, for adventurous wars, and has a record from her time as head of the State Department that isn’t universally admired, if not respected— Sec. Kerry has gone much further to accomplish more substantive results by comparison within and on behalf of the same Administration. 

Thus, even if you disagree with this one of the three points, finding yourself more of a hawkish-dove, than a dovish-hawk, continue reading as to why Sanders can and should prevail against all his rivals in both contests.

WELFARE

Republicans call this “Entitlement Reform,” but what they typically mean is ‘controlling’ entitlements, but most importantly to the actual conservative constituency, in order to manage (or cut) associated costs. 

Republicans continue calls for a re-run straight from the 1980’s of tax-cuts for the 1%, who are already enjoying the best tax benefits, ever, that only translate to eventually pissing off poor, minority, and elderly groups, by capping or eliminating benefits they rely upon to live in exchange for having helped build our nation, but also should be a wholesale alarm to our Veterans and retired civil servicepersons. 

Sanders proposes to afford these programs reinstating what is called Progressive Taxation (lower taxation rates for the poor, and greater taxation rates for the rich), and for the most part was the tradition in our nation, until Ronald Reagan began spending recklessly on the US credit card and playing with Trickle Down Economics, permanent national treasury deficits, and no real wage (adjusted for inflation) increases for the bottom two-thirds of the nation ever since. 

George H. W. Bush, The Elder, observed correctly, before he lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980 to become elevated to Vice President (after having run the CIA for years), that this solutions set was “Voodoo Economics.”  Ad naseum argumentum (arguments that repeat over and over insistently) do not prove right this miserable failure.

Bush the Elder, eventually lost his re-election, since everything he had learned in life, told him he needed to raise taxes on the wealthy, like Reagan did too, because the safety netting for Americans had begun it’s own demolition once Reagan Administration and Republican lawmaking efforts got rolling (and then rolled from the S&L Scandal before ending up into the ditch with the Bank Bailouts— see Neil Bush).

Whatever you call this Economic Policy, it is now a proven failed economic, governing, and fiscal model, in ointments and puddings found around the world since 2008, and we have begun reinstating those safety nets— the enthusiasm across ‘voting blocks,’ indicate Sanders tracks with this trend.

Voters of all stripes, ranks and files must think to not only vote for the children yet to be born, but those who have lost their way in this life, yet still live.  Back when PTSD was called shell shock, this was termed Welfare of the State by the people for the people.

We all want good fiscal policy, and budgetary prudence... the difference— Bernie Sanders also promises to expand Social Security and Veteran Benefits; create Universal Education and National Health Insurance; but also continue the request, to keep the promise written at the foot of The Statue of Liberty, that asks for those “tired, poor, and masses yearning to be free.”   

There is no request or shown preference at Lady Liberty’s feet for only those people with advanced degrees on Work Visas, exclusion of opportunities for the lower or middle classes, nor does it say “No Mexicans, or Muslims.” 

Aside from that, anyone concerned with Native American Rights, let alone the poor (or the 99%), serious about casting a vote this year for any establishment candidate could only seriously consider the Democratic Party. 

Otherwise, there will be made available third-party protest (each only able to garner under 1%) votes that, once again, won’t be noticed by The Establishment— trust me, like Mr. Sanders, I am not a Democrat, either.

Although his Democratic Establishment rival may again be somewhat analogous to this Democratic Socialist, my truth: Sanders, I feel is someone who would probably agree with my more libertarian advocacy for a simple methodology of expansion for the ACA to ‘not discriminate upon age.’ Unlike the Republicans who seem proud to have earned their mantle of “Do-Nothing-Republicans” by voting to repeal ACA 62 times, WITHOUT COUNTER-OFFER, here is at least my idea:

This could happen any day of the week should any relevant class in California decide to sue the State exchange and Medicaid under the Unruh Act, that bans discrimination by age.  This amendment this would most probably open the door to reform critical health insurance coverage (Medicaid and Medicare) to include any citizen who needed health care, nationally.

This “available model” is favorable to a mandatory model, or even Single-payor, because it is still allowing for self-insurers, and those who prefer an esoteric insurance device to act as a market tamp on pricing by offering capital efficiencies in terms of (much lesser degree direct and) indirect competition. 

But the idea of sending in any candidate, who may be willing to take another thirty years dancing with the powers-that-be to get the citizens some version of National Healthcare whilst the nation suffers; let alone those (Republicans) not willing to admit to a Health Crisis, Poverty Issues, nor Climate Change; simply beggars belief.

I think I will chance it with the guy, Sanders, who once again seems to be facing the actual reality of our geo-political and economic situations:

My macroeconomic fiscal conservative recap in favor of Universal Healthcare;

Without some version of universal coverage in health insurance, it is an unfair competitive advantage to almost every one of our foreign trading partners (who mostly have some form of national state health insurance) that acts as an inverse tariff against our national exports and imports, because our manufacturers and business owners do not have comparable benefit(s). 

Meaning that any good, product or service (imported or exported) includes in its measured value in currency terms the subsidized healthcare costs of our competitors’ workers and citizens, thus allowing our trading partners to attract and retain higher quality labor, as well as creating a “reverse hidden taxation to trade,” or inverse tariff. 

In other words, when we don’t have a comparable benefit to any national competitor, then this acts in favor of foreign competition as hidden cost of goods per export, simultaneous to hidden subsidy (in favor of exporting nation) per import. 

This is economically true of most state social netting programs that reduce costs and burdens to business.  Ending this incongruity, and any other social disadvantages to workforce, manufacturers, exporters, and importers, will benefit Corporate America for generations to come.

When any Republican and any Democrat are held up to be chosen by our vet, disabled, and/or elderly voters around the nation as to which candidate for the POTUS will really be backstopping and improving Healthcare, Social Security, and VA Benefits— The retired citizen with a prospect of living to past age one-hundred with advances in modern medicine, the infirm citizen with a permanent disability, disease, ailment and/or deformity, but also anyone who has served this nation— voters should rightly recoil in horror at the massive cuts to benefits being proposed by that Republican field writ large. 

Winning Republican will have to at best modify Entitlement Reform plans, or at least hedge their speech (i.e. lie) on the stump, if they have even made any policy notes known, to then bestill this vast constituencyship, which seems particularly ebullient this year.  Again any Democrat will probably win.

WEEDFAIR

It is not ‘marijuana,’ it is not ‘weed,’ rather it is the cannabis species in all its forms: industrial, commercial, and medicinal. 

Every Republican has espoused doubling down on Ronald Reagan’s failed, outmoded, and unpopular “war” seeking to repeal these State initiatives by the people and their representative governments!

This is the key distinction for the Democratic nominees.  Although, with hedging language, Mrs. Clinton somehow shows up as a 1990’s Republican talking about ‘states rights,’ on this issue; Sanders can make, and often shows, if not alludes to, the connection; that the ill-conceived adventure called “War on Drugs,” Libertarian and Reganite Ron Paul would agree, has been an escapade, which the taxpaying citizenry has answered back these thirty years later with, ‘black lives matter,’ as the number one civil rights issue facing our nation today.

Assuming we also include any people of color within that sentiment, and add any citizen in any disadvantaged class: that insane effort by the US Government against it’s own people must finally come to a complete end.  

It didn’t work with alcohol: without identifying and addressing the real and underlying social issues belying the symptomologies and behaviors (let alone citizen violations against arbitrary and capricious lawmaking, policy, and now case-precedent that must be overturned or outlawed, itself) sought to be modified, or contained, on such complex social issues; it then fails the actual cause of government to protect and defend its citizens in a reasonable free state of liberty, as ratified and identified by our founders, who all used industrial hemp, at a minimum. 

Further, when incarceration is the primary remedy provided by the opposite party (again, the proven poor solution set since the Drug War began last century under the Reagan Administration), there will be continued disenfranchisement of those felons, disadvantaged, and forgotten citizens who have given up on our cynical system— non-voters.  Ending the failed Drug War will end disenfranchisement of citizens from their system.

Voters have Thanksgiving Dinners with those non-voting folks.  And anyone not thinking of being a voter this time, please plan to vote, if you still have the right, and see what happens!

Repealing the now-proven inefficient prohibition of cannabis will save trillions of dollars across the board!!

It will redirect vital policing mechanisms back to the borders, counter-terror, and actual crimes against policy of State— where they belong.  And, by the way, it will pay for itself, generate billions in taxes annually, and create new jobs.

However, Free Hemp is more importantly the number one Law and Order issue for 2016, in part because by redirecting the resources of state to enforce policy, as we have begun to do in Colorado, then, besides fiscal prudence, it should also expedite the removing of those Federal Emergency Powers (yes, we are still under a State of Emergency) to ideally reinstate the concepts of law derived from the Magna Carta and it’s associated democratic principalia connected to habeas corpus.

WHY SANDERS CAN WIN

Weed States aka The Fab Four: CO, WA, AK, OR, and sort of the District of Colombia, which isn’t actually a State, but does vote.  No one in these states is going to consciously ratify any politician explaining why their States Rights will be invalidated and revoked by the Federal Government, should we choose to vote for them to administer the Executive Offices of the USA. 

23 Medicinal States; 15 CBD Only States; 2 pending Medicinal States. 

This represents 44 States (All Native Nations are free to grow, manufacture and sell cannabis products; probably most of our Commonwealth Members will agree; and our Fab Four, and [again] DC) accepting, honoring and commercializing Hemp in 2016! 

(I added Florida, because last year an Initiative to become the fifth state to fully legalize cannabis was passed by the voters at a phenomenal 58%, but didn’t meet the sixty percent ‘super-majority’ threshold to become amended into the State Constitution.  They are going for it again this year!)

44/50!!

Consistently, our US Population supports legalization of cannabis by a majority since 2002, because it is so very common sense— those who don’t, mostly because they were indoctrinated to believe cannabis to be worse than opium, if you can imagine, are getting older and passing away. 

Support really only continues to grow, as the most important plant in the human pantheon comes back online, and myths become demystified.

And States citizens sincerely voting in 2016 to become #5 (and beyond) to legalize it: Nevada, California, Maine, Arizona, Connecticut, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Missouri; all have activated their grass-root bases to follow the Weed States into the actual future— just like climate change, it also does exist!

So, this sea change favors a Progressive crowd to be mobilized at the base in 2016.

Then, the ACA States where a successful state health insurance exchange system has begun to heal millions of Americans, including myself, is set up: CO, HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, IA, MS, KY, MD, NY, VT, MA, RI, and CT. 

I would tell 538.com and any other prognosticators, just put these states into Any Democrat’s column, because the countless stories of relief, respite, and hospice cannot be told considering the millions of improvements we are seeing every day to the actual health of our country.  This will begin to show up as lagging economic statistics, as more of our people continue get the help they need.

If any of those states didn’t break Democratic, then I wouldn’t consider that any final verdict upon the ACA— itself mostly the 1990’s Republican solution set, their counter-offers, after the failed Hilary-care effort, which she cashed-in for the CHP (more or less the current national children’s health insurance program, to her credit), currently referred to as Obamacare.

Because this is so massive and complex of an issue, results are so preliminary, then it is no wonder the Do-nothing Republicans voted to repeal this important social netting— their own ‘90’s policy counter-offers— now 62 times, offering no real new solutions, as of February 2, 2016— THEY JUST DON’T GET IT!

Even if the ACA goes unchanged, only managed, it will realize trillions of dollars in long-term savings to the Federal Government, as is, while continuing to heal America. 

Every Republican wants to end available health care solutions without any real counter-offer, thus no true Republican will be preferred by those citizens experiencing positive ACA results— Americans are just not buying it, even though there do exist also many stories about frustration with implementation.

To guess, there is political inefficiency, disagreement, and/or disorganization that could account for the 18 exchanges that have defaulted to the Federal Program, as they are mostly “red states.” 

Thus, this may indicate a potential anti-Obama trend in some of the Federal Exchange states.

(I did not weight those states in the neither/nor zone still developing their exchange solutions.)

However, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, and maybe Louisiana and Arizona are the only of these eighteen that could be mitigated by other (weed, jobs, etc.) factors, issues and turnouts to prefer Any Democrat.


Therefore, assuming that voters find Mr. Sanders the more trusted, experienced, pragmatic choices for the Democratic primary; assuming my hypotheses about ACA and Free Hemp are more or less correct; then I expect a final General Election map (Sanders-v-Any Republican) to appear something like this:

I am endorsing Bernard Sanders of Vermont for President in 2016. 

Finally: Please, let us not act like we are the oldest modern democracy by having the most anemic voter turnouts.  Even if you do not agree in part or whole with this argument, as citizens let us demonstrate our vigor of old age; please, make sure to vote in November!

Happy President’s Day!

3 Scenarios

Interesting stuff from 538 showing that there are only eleven realistic battlegrounds based on the polling data (flawed, subjective, and not a real final predictor of anything more than the current psyche of America). It states that the eleven states are technically McCain's to lose, but these states are definitely buckling under the momentum from the Obama-DNC machine v.2008.

I assume first, Obama wins these eleven plus those leaning, trending, or already in his court; then I look only at the historical election trends; and finally the eleven plus those already in McCains court.


407 – 131 Obama: Democrats Best Case;




289 - 249 Obama: Trend Predictor using this data, and giving FL to McCain (which seems could trend either way);




286 - 252 McCain: Republicans Best Case;




Conclusion:

If case #2 is the average of what can be more or less expected in november then Republicans have a natural 15% deficit to overcome. That said in terms of the popular vote, McCain would need to be polling to win by no less than 3% in order to feel safe... or safer.

Its a tall task as that would mean he has to make up a 7-point gap just to appear competitive... let alone be much for anything approaching inevitable.

At this time, it is clearly Obama's to lose... a truly ugly situation for the future of the republicans.

More States In Play Than The Media Would Have You Think

We can see (http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do) from fundraising activities the “voting with the pocketbook,” when juxtaposed with current polling data that a clear, if not much more chaotic, picture of the oncoming battles comes into view.


I. Fundraising Leader Board (Notables only—not all states listed):

07Q2;

Obama – KY, TN, VA, MO, ND, MT, and CO
McCain – NH
Clinton – WV, OH, IN, OK


07Q3;

Obama – KY, IN, WI, NH, ND, SD, NE
McCain – MN, MI, OK
Clinton – FL, NC, VA, WV, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX and CO


07Q4;

Obama – WI, IA, and MN
McCain – Only LA, and AZ (notable in its own right)
Clinton – GA, VA, WV, IN, MO, AR, and CO


08Q1 (All Listed);

McCain – FL, MI, MS, LA, MO, and AZ
Romney – UT
Clinton – AL, AR, OK, and NE

Obama – ALL OTHERS


II. The Money Map:

Number of DEM STATES; 40
Number of REP STATES; 10


III. NEW Regional Winners (redefinition of the regions by money-winner);

DEMOCRATS

Pacific (AK, HI, WA, OR, CA) = Obama
Select South (GA, NC, VA, KY) = Obama
Great Lakes (PA, OH, IN, IL, WI, and MN) = Obama
Great Plains (MO, IA, KS, NE, and ND) = Obama
Liberal Mountain West (CO and MT) = Obama

Gulf (TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL) = Clinton
Clinton Country (WV, MD, DC, NJ, RI, and NY) = Clinton

Delaware = Biden

New Mexico = Richardson


REPUBLICANS

Romney Country (UT, NV, ID, WY) = Romney

McCain Country (AZ, MS, and SC) = McCain

South Dakota = Giuliani

Tennessee = Thompson

Michigan = Romney



IV. If we now default all Republican Winners to McCain, and Democratic Winners to Obama, and then compare with (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) today’s polling data (deducting opposite, close, and statistical dead heats) we have the following potential Toss-Up States:

AK, NV, SC, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, MT, and what looks to be the belle of the ball MI.


V. By Party the following Contested States where Money Winners through 08Q1, but are dead heat or losing the polls;

DEM: AK, TX, OK, AR, LA, AL, FL, WV, GA, NC, KY, IN, KS, NE, ND, and MT

REP: MI and SC


VI. Starting first with Money Leader board, then overturning by Poll results we have the following Electoral College Estimate:

Obama: 317
McCain: 221


VII. Defining the Battles by Region:

Pacific: Obama may be able to make AK competitive, as part of a Grand Pacifica strategy, but his time would be better spent sucking already Dem-leaning NV into a Continental Pacific Time Zone sweep.

Romney Country: McCain can’t afford to take for granted NV, or AZ, for that mater, being surrounded by Obama states to the West and Southeast.

McCain Country: He has a battle in South Carolina and the South in general.

Gulf: As Obama begins to actually campaign there, watch the battle in FL drain the McCain coffers… he can’t afford to lose FL—a big market with lots of media expenses.

Clinton Country: Obama will let WV go in exchange for VA and SC, but if he can create an effective Appalachian strategy he may be able to convince WV to swing with his version of Hillary’s programs and even put up a fight in KY.

Select South: Expect this to be the next place where McCain, if he expects to be competitive, has to fight a real ground battle with real dollars. Obama has a shot at all but KY, even though he has been in the Money over and over again there, and McCain needs to run a clean sweep for any hope at a Republican victory.

Great Lakes: McCain really hopes to hurt Obama here (his home court) especially if we include MI. IN will be competitive, and the RNC hopes to put MN in play with convention location.

Great Plains: First Major Battle Ground Zone. MO, IA, KS, NE, SD and ND could break either way as individual states with specific needs.

Mountain West (including Romney Country): Second Major Battle Ground Zone. CO, NM, MT and NV in the one corner and UT, WY, and ID in the other (and AZ in McCain’s column barring total meltdown).


VIII. The Emerging War

McCain’s only real Attack:

(A) Clean sweep of the (old definition) “Mason Dixon Line” South, including VA, FL, and SC
(B) Full attack of the (old definition) “Rust Belt” to win PA, OH, and/or MI
(C) Defend (old definition) “Marlboro Country” (MT, NV, NM, and CO)


Obama’s Defense:

(A) Expand the Liberal Mountain West to include NV, MT, and maintain the momentum for pickups in NM and CO

-and-

(B) Take at least one Southern state such as FL, GA, SC, NC, or VA
(C) Or win 50% or better of the Great Plains (IA, MO, SD for instance)

-and-

(D) Hold the Great Lakes and North East (with or without IN)


IX. Battleground States to Watch

FL, MI, VA, PA, OH, NV, IA, SC, NC, IN, MT, CO, NM, MO, SD, NH, GA and I would also argue that LA may come into play sooner or later.



X. CONCLUSION:

Barring a major lapse in judgment from his opponent, McCain has to draw battle lines upon the old ways and methods to have any real chance of winning an Electoral College Majority. He is outgunned in fundraising, and probably outclassed in Campaign Management, Ground Game Organization, and Message. Therefore, expect to hear a lot of the old appeals to gun owners, anti-abortionists, and family values in order to attempt a last hurrah at seeing things in terms of South and North, Liberal Elite and Working Class, and don’t count out some of the ugly tongue-in-cheek de facto racial elements designed to distract to rear their heads once or twice before November.

Obama has to continue to use the new definitions of a borderless society (Internet), which does not confine or define its citizenry by gender, race, or class and run a positive and “hope-based” campaign. If he can stay on message without major missteps or miscalculations, then this is his War to lose.