BP Aftermath

Knock wood that there will only be an absolute minimum of oil spilt hereafter from the Deep Water Horizon Disaster.

That said, a quick reckoning, and I think the Obama Admin got this right:

My assumptions-- A leak of 80K BBL per Day with a straight line 1% reduction over 86 days to define the various captures, ruptures, and miscillaneous unknown variables (unless BP would like to submit the actual data, instead of somehow going from 1000BBL to 5000BBL to as much as 80000BBL per day-- I feel this method is fair); The fine is $4300 per barrel per day that such oil remains uncleaned;

What we come up with is just about $20BB as of today... BP you better get to cleaning!

(Here is my worksheet [sorry it didn't come out that great, but gotta go]:

Days BBL/dayTOTAL BBLs in MM gal Fine in $MM TOT Fine $BB
1 80000 80000 3.36 $344.00 $0.34
2 79200 159200 6.69 $684.56 $0.68
3 78408 237608 9.98 $1,021.71 $1.02
4 77624 315232 13.24 $1,355.50 $1.36
5 76848 392080 16.47 $1,685.94 $1.69
6 76079 468159 19.66 $2,013.08 $2.01
7 75318 543477 22.83 $2,336.95 $2.34
8 74565 618042 25.96 $2,657.58 $2.66
9 73820 691862 29.06 $2,975.01 $2.98
10 73081 764943 32.13 $3,289.26 $3.29
11 72351 837294 35.17 $3,600.36 $3.60
12 71627 908921 38.17 $3,908.36 $3.91
13 70911 979832 41.15 $4,213.28 $4.22
14 70202 1050033 44.10 $4,515.14 $4.52
15 69500 1119533 47.02 $4,813.99 $4.82
16 68805 1188338 49.91 $5,109.85 $5.11
17 68117 1256454 52.77 $5,402.75 $5.41
18 67435 1323890 55.60 $5,692.73 $5.70
19 66761 1390651 58.41 $5,979.80 $5.99
20 66093 1456744 61.18 $6,264.00 $6.27
21 65433 1522177 63.93 $6,545.36 $6.55
22 64778 1586955 66.65 $6,823.91 $6.83
23 64130 1651086 69.35 $7,099.67 $7.11
24 63489 1714575 72.01 $7,372.67 $7.38
25 62854 1777429 74.65 $7,642.95 $7.65
26 62226 1839655 77.27 $7,910.52 $7.92
27 61603 1901258 79.85 $8,175.41 $8.18
28 60987 1962246 82.41 $8,437.66 $8.45
29 60378 2022623 84.95 $8,697.28 $8.71
30 59774 2082397 87.46 $8,954.31 $8.96
31 59176 2141573 89.95 $9,208.76 $9.22
32 58584 2200157 92.41 $9,460.68 $9.47
33 57998 2258156 94.84 $9,710.07 $9.72
34 57418 2315574 97.25 $9,956.97 $9.97
35 56844 2372418 99.64 $10,201.40 $10.21
36 56276 2428694 102.01 $10,443.39 $10.45
37 55713 2484407 104.35 $10,682.95 $10.69
38 55156 2539563 106.66 $10,920.12 $10.93
39 54604 2594168 108.96 $11,154.92 $11.17
40 54058 2648226 111.23 $11,387.37 $11.40
41 53518 2701744 113.47 $11,617.50 $11.63
42 52983 2754726 115.70 $11,845.32 $11.86
43 52453 2807179 117.90 $12,070.87 $12.08
44 51928 2859107 120.08 $12,294.16 $12.31
45 51409 2910516 122.24 $12,515.22 $12.53
46 50895 2961411 124.38 $12,734.07 $12.75
47 50386 3011797 126.50 $12,950.73 $12.96
48 49882 3061679 128.59 $13,165.22 $13.18
49 49383 3111062 130.66 $13,377.57 $13.39
50 48889 3159951 132.72 $13,587.79 $13.60
51 48400 3208352 134.75 $13,795.91 $13.81
52 47916 3256268 136.76 $14,001.95 $14.02
53 47437 3303706 138.76 $14,205.93 $14.22
54 46963 3350669 140.73 $14,407.88 $14.42
55 46493 3397162 142.68 $14,607.80 $14.62
56 46028 3443190 144.61 $14,805.72 $14.82
57 45568 3488758 146.53 $15,001.66 $15.02
58 45112 3533871 148.42 $15,195.64 $15.21
59 44661 3578532 150.30 $15,387.69 $15.40
60 44215 3622747 152.16 $15,577.81 $15.59
61 43773 3666519 153.99 $15,766.03 $15.78
62 43335 3709854 155.81 $15,952.37 $15.97
63 42901 3752756 157.62 $16,136.85 $16.15
64 42472 3795228 159.40 $16,319.48 $16.34
65 42048 3837276 161.17 $16,500.29 $16.52
66 41627 3878903 162.91 $16,679.28 $16.70
67 41211 3920114 164.64 $16,856.49 $16.87
68 40799 3960913 166.36 $17,031.93 $17.05
69 40391 4001304 168.05 $17,205.61 $17.22
70 39987 4041291 169.73 $17,377.55 $17.39
71 39587 4080878 171.40 $17,547.77 $17.57
72 39191 4120069 173.04 $17,716.30 $17.73
73 38799 4158868 174.67 $17,883.13 $17.90
74 38411 4197280 176.29 $18,048.30 $18.07
75 38027 4235307 177.88 $18,211.82 $18.23
76 37647 4272954 179.46 $18,373.70 $18.39
77 37270 4310224 181.03 $18,533.96 $18.55
78 36898 4347122 182.58 $18,692.62 $18.71
79 36529 4383651 184.11 $18,849.70 $18.87
80 36163 4419814 185.63 $19,005.20 $19.02
81 35802 4455616 187.14 $19,159.15 $19.18
82 35444 4491060 188.62 $19,311.56 $19.33
83 35089 4526149 190.10 $19,462.44 $19.48
84 34739 4560888 191.56 $19,611.82 $19.63
85 34391 4595279 193.00 $19,759.70 $19.78
86 34047 4629326 194.43 $19,906.10 $19.93 )