Showing posts with label Planning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Planning. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

It is only a question of, "How Successful?"

I take the opportunity as history is unfolding to create the case for how to answer "how successful will Colorado's legalization be?"

We are almost at the end of the first quarter.  The preliminary figures for the state indicate $2.1 million per month Recreational and about $1.4 million per month for medicinal.

Therefore, , Governor H. et. al., who opposes the purpose or promise, and cautiously enforces the will of the people and law, put out an estimate that the right was quick to glom upon saying that $137million is the revised estimate, not the projected $578million!

Disappointed??  

Okay, so lets review the situation from the point of view of a Business Broker.

(A) Dispensaries and Recreational Dispensaries have the unique problem of being required by law to run an all cash business... only now being solved.  If taxation requires compliance, but compliance means not opening up a Federally Insured account, then we have a reporting problem by definition!

Business operators famously keep poor records.  They are involved in servicing their clients, meeting customer demand, and coordinating vendors.  So, why do we expect the skill sets include math, accounting, or record keeping?  

My experience reviewing hundreds of business opportunities over the years suggest that of the whole: 80% are well meaning but sloppy or contain some small errors; 10% are well kept; and 10% are just outright sad.

I think you must realize that most business owners are working ten hour days almost every day of every year.  No matter how well intentioned, mistakes can be made.  I would put bad actors at about 1 ~ 3% depending on how you define "bad."

Now try doing the whole thing as a cash basis accounting, with only cash.  That adds burden at least, and for comparison if you legally compelled McDonalds, Verizon or Comcast to have to operate that way they would declare Bankruptcy overnight.


(B) January sales figures?  Ever hear of "seasonally adjusted?"  We have endless data about how the cold weather this winter has reduced retail activities across the board.  This is only mitigated by the pent up demand, but there is also novelty effect to consider.  

The pent up demand may skew the figure higher, but number of dispensaries was very limited.  The novelty is a wash-- you would have customers who were trying it out to see what happens, and you would have regular clients possibly holding back to see how "safe" the situation appears.  Therefore, the Season and travel prohibitions (not to mention that in January most licenses for Rec hadn't been approved.... most places are getting their permits in Summer) take the most weight for the adjustment.

So if adjustments are a push, and the skew goes to "January figures," we include that January will probably in five years time be known in the business cycle of Cannabis that January is typically an average month to the mean.



(C) I was wrong, or right it doesn't matter:

  1. One store that was permitted in CO on Jan 1, '14, reported off the record that they had sold approximately $250,000 in the first two weeks.
  2. from that anecdote I estimate ~$500MM in annual tax revenues for CO directly attributable to legalization! Closer to $1BB counting knockons


Okay, so if there are (A) underreporting and (B) adjustments, then we have to consider the truth of how accounting and valuations work... We wont have the actual final and adjusted January '14 numbers until July of 2015!!!


TIME TO PANIC?

Oh no, this really hasn't worked out... I guess this has just been a disappointing experiment in personal freedom and individual liberty.

I relented, now I ask critics of anti-prohibition to relent and admit that actually in these government projections they have met the threshold (where the first $40 million goes to schools) for revenue to run the program, the powers that be will have surplus to spread around, and once again, because Macroeconomics is so vastly complex and so mundanely precise, is an inaccurate art; that therefore any law that pays for itself, improves freedom and liberty, and pays for other state functions-- by definition in Business is a success!



MY PREDICTION?

I am going to hang my hat on the ~$170million mark as the definition for Rec Sales Tax of success.  I will wait until July 2015 to see the whole picture, and then I will ask how the knock-on effects are calculated: employment, employees paying taxes, income generated being sent back into the economy; immigration; and other net benefits to the State.

I will point out that taken as a whole, the fuller effect, the net benefit to the economy will meet my prediction in my tweet, but again I am not that attached to how accurate my prognostication.  That isn't my job!

The state probably has included to some effect the above considerations, but the willingness to structure the dialogue of a government program that not only pays for itself, but earns, as one of disappointment and failure is a non-starter for what will inevitably become the very early days of a multi billion dollar legitimate industry!

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Intergenerational Overlapping and the Oncoming New Age of Reason


Population Asymmetry

I.               From about 1965, we can observe the beginning of geometric population growth.  This indicates the beginning of “overpopulation,” or more accurately the asymmetry from increased births, greater longevity, and fewer preventable deaths from ancient norms.  This problem has begun to grow exponentially.


Crisis Nodes

II.             Although there are many other wars, conflicts, strifes to be considered, for our purposes of American History, and our nations birth in 1776, we observe six modern nodes of crisis:
a.     US Civil War
b.     The Great War
c.     WWII
d.     Moon Landing
e.     End of the Soviet Empire
f.      Beginning of Modern Information-based (Internet) Democracy


Era Names

III.           After the Age of Reason: Ironically, we inhabited the great genocide of America, and endured the pestilence of human slavery.  The zugzwang of the International Age of Industry required our participation in social norms, but as a nation not healed from the bitter civil conflict.  Our modern American identity was forged by the great European war where the conception of nationhood and nationalism forced us to unite.  The fourth era is so named the Age of Economy because this was the practical application of all the great theories, and became the natural growth of nations to once again end this era in another great mechanized war.  After the hard and bitter lessons of grand mechanical warfare a more indirect, yet no less vicious, period of proxy warfare began, and the emblem of the two great Superpowers was that of Space.  After America ostensibly won that war of symbolism, then an age of covert and more indirect paroxysm began in earnest to complete the defeat of the Soviet Union entirely.  Leaving an age of one Superpower left with all the various agents who would attempt to interact with, transform or gain from her.  We have entered an age where the conception of power is being transformed, not just by the application of ideas, but the ideals and ideas being transmitted by these transformational devices we participate with regularly in this era.


Node Zero

IV.           In American History we begin in the first thirty years of Simultaneous Corinthian Rebirth (CR), a creative destruction for survival, and the a ten year Birth;
a.     1760 – Doric Construction of Revolution
b.     1770 – Ionic Construction of Revolution
c.     1780 – Corinthian Construction of Revolution
d.     1790 – Birth of the Stable State (where the act of Revolution has been harnessed in active creation-destruction process we call government)
                                                     i.     1790 – 1793 sub doric: The King as President
                                                      ii.     1793 – 1796 sub ionic: The Various Powers
                                                        iii.     1796 – 1799 sub corinthian: The Reasonable Transitions

Generational Nodes

V.             After the Reasonable Institutionalization of Revolution, began the formation of parties and other emblematic themes, which allowed for the construction and destruction of ideas of governance and administration of law through institutional process, however this does not dismiss the massive genocide being conducted until 1974 upon the lands of what was to become territory of these United States of America.  Following Jefferson and a Revolution every generation (30 years):
a.     Rebirth (Transformational Period [Ricorso])
b.     Doric (Construction of Foundations)
c.     Ionic (Building of the Constructs)
d.     Corinthian (Decoration and Edifice)

Sub-Nodes

VI.           Confusing the issue, but now more clear with the benefit of oversimplification, is the illusion of cohort or sub-nodes within generations.  These do not attribute a “rebirth” sub-period, for the natural[1] progeneration of each individual, cohort, or generation is the very act of biological rebirth.


Primary Technological Achievement

VII.         At the advent of every new generation, there appears a clear signal from the prior generation as to how to better evolve the technology of our environment for survival and progress.  Although these are simplifications of the overarching achievement of the times, there are innumerable simultaneous progresses in every subject matter in order to allow for other generations to unlock achievements.  As with Node Zero, we find ourselves (at “node 8”) where the cumulative progress in every Scientific endeavor has come to fruition in every discipline—the start of a time of Science and Reason!

Longevity Asymmetry

VIII.       By Node Six, The Baby Boom Generation, Children were observing the first human cohorts to live into their 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s, in spite of the two great mechanical wars.  We entered into a node in 1999 where children being born until 2029 will observe human cohorts living into their 90’s, 100’s, and beyond (the estimated stabilization for longevity to become living naturally into 120 ~ 140 y.o., and with medicines and technologies 140+)!


Conclusion

The Population Asymmetry, Progenitor Asymmetry and the Longevity Asymmetry require from the intergenerational populace a sense of civility and abiding peace that are necessary for collective security.  We enter an era of unprecedented potentiality for every human being alive today, and have one of the best chances ever to enshrine Ethics, Liberty and Human Rights for the sanctity of all future generations.


Hypothesis

We will not be able to afford to not cooperate as a human species (as opposed to nation, or other group) upon this Earth, and the upside becomes material and quality of life gains from cooperation that will far outweigh perceived negatives.

The confluence of all these human events shall describe
1.     A grander sense of the Collective Consciousness and Higher Awareness
2.     More sublime and civil forms of diplomacy and warfare
3.     A concept of collective endeavor that will produce a massive efficiency, which we are already encountering


MAJOR EFFORTS FOR FUTURE NODES

Future Nodal Targets

A.    Commercial Space Travel
B.    Electricity Harmonization (We are in Node E1 and starting E2.  By E3 we will be at the edge of Robotic Sentience)
C.    Oceanic Mastery (deep water craft and body suits)
D.   Environmental Stasis (estimate Node I Env. will sustain up to 12BB pop.; Node II Env 16BB; and Node III 30+BB)
E.    Robotic Sentience
F.    Interplanetary Colonization
G.   Intergalactic Exploration / Deep Space Mastery
H.   Solar System Mastery
I.      Inter Solar System Colonization
J.     Galactic Mastery
K.   Intergalactic Mastery
L.    Intergalactic Colonization


Note:
            “Arab Spring,” is the current term to describe the actions of societies, many in the Arab States, gaining 21st Century Technology at low or no cost and being able to organize democratically with instantaneous communications and information systems.  This will probably be referred to as the International Accurate Democracy Movement, or something thereabouts, because we also find ourselves in USA, amidst the advent of the ramifications of this technological advance and all that this implies.



[1] The Progenitor Asymmetry would be when genes can be spawned multi-generationally (even after the subject has expired)

Sunday, March 20, 2011

How Cataclysm is Reality Check

The Disaster in Japan, presently mounting towards becoming something we will only hope to determine in a couple of months could be at least worse than Three-Mile Island and probably not as bad as Chernobyl; that is the Nuclear (Environment [Energy {consumption/scarcity} Economy] Health) Situation.

The Disaster in Japan is an example of the force of the oceans, a vivid recreation of the Indonesian Tsunami, but with the million dollar yachts, middle class houses, and video cameras slushing about everywhere—all floating together equally: that the reality TV, media, yet very real Safety Preparedness issues brought front and center for the World to see.

The Disaster in Japan was also a Massive Series of Earthquakes. Three Disasters in one, and all of them begging questions. Fundamental questions that I am confident the Japanese Society, and the World with which they have built tremendous store of good will, interdependence, and fair trade can answer the questions being asked by this Natural Disaster.

To come back to simplicity, the tragedy shows beggar, rich man, and thief all equally were swept away. All died, and were spared only according to natural forces – not perceptions or falsehoods held by society. Chaos, and randomness. DONATE TODAY!

We can use this crisis soon to be molded into opportunity to better understand our Society, too.


The first question begged, Nuclear, asks us to truly have Utilities, states, and corporations acknowledge that we are currently (this includes everything from Climate Change to Household cleansers, and includes everything else we make) conducting a real-time open ended chemistry experiment with our environs and habitat for which we rely upon sustenance. I have complained very loudly in my book Metaeconomics on the subject of incorrect assessment of lifetime costs and benefit-cost analysis in resource valuation.

The second shows us that seven generations thinking (planning for 7 x 30 = 210 years in advance) is required to address the engineering challenges of Reality posed by the forces of nature, and made worsening of those disasters.

Home itself as physical object is impermanent. So, any disaster in, near, or by the home becomes a scientific and engineering issue. At the extreme end, we have to be conscious also of our massive garbage and waste streams, and thus reusability, recycle-ability, biodegrability, etc.

For example: Is it too much to ask to buy a washing machine that your grandkids could inherit (still operational)? Or imagine you could use parts from your washing machine to replace parts to fix by hand (using simple tools) your futuristic vacuum? That the broken part can be sold for scrap to the local hardware store for re-smelting?

On the other hand, living spaces are designed to ideally (looking at older cultures than ours in Modern USA) last a similar 210 years... or many, many more!

Japan has the opportunity to unleash the resources to create an actual place where they find their best and brightest technological possibilities. Entire new, green, and safe communities can arise by direct result of the response by the question being begged.

Maybe there is hope for Nuclear Safety, but clearly like Deep Sea Oil Drilling, like Trickle Down Economics, and a parade of other less than flexible ideas we have recently witnessed self-destruct (or at the very least flies in ointment canisters -- if not fact based proofs against them) in our times.

Finally, to be specific and real in my example, the idea of a California Coastal Commission has been the obvious joke in my experience (and many others) in real estate, architecture, engineering, planning, design, and other professional experience. Saying CCC in many circles is short hand for bureaucratic nightmare and red tape.

However, by looking at the scope of the challenge now before our friends in Japan, we can see clearly why certain agencies do exist for betterment of common good issues like health, safety, environment and planning. We may however need to streamline, and make efficient this series of systems and conflicting agencies.

So, we should mirror our friends as they rebuild their infrastructure, help them in doing so, and use the massive economic requirements to upgrade and refurbish our crumbling infrastructure system.


  • In these next years, the friendship between our nations and the connection and spirit of kinship can only become that much stronger by the real challenges and questions Mother Nature has now asked of all human societies around the world.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

From the peanut gallery to the rafters... a crib sheet with commentary on the SOTU

Here in Bold are my take-aways, and in italics the words from the speech that best summarized the speech logic points.

Howard Fineman called it 'the most pro-business speech a Democrat has given.'

1. Implied acknowledgement of Keynesian Major Project Theory."The first step in winning the future is encouraging American innovation."

2. Direct acknowledgement of the broken educational mechanisms. "...we also have to win the race to educate our kids."

3. Acknowledgment that one of the most efficacious stimulus actions of money from government would be best spent on Infrastructure. "Our infrastructure used to be the best - but our lead has slipped."

4. Acknowledgement of over-burdened small business part 1: regulatory. "All these investments - in innovation, education, and infrastructure - will make America a better place to do business and create jobs. But to help our companies compete, we also have to knock down barriers that stand in the way of their success."

5. Acknowledgment of over-burdened small and medium businesses part 2: tax code. "So tonight, I'm asking Democrats and Republicans to simplify the system. Get rid of the loopholes. Level the playing field. And use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years - without adding to our deficit."

6. Fiscal Prudence. "Now, the final step - a critical step - in winning the future is to make sure we aren't buried under a mountain of debt."

7. Government streamlining and modernization. "We should give them a government that's more competent and efficient." (Streamlining is a proven savings.)

(The rest focused on foreign policy, summarization and concluding remarks.)

***

Overall, if even some of this gets implemented in a reasonable (dare we suggest bi-partisan) manner, then we stand to be improved economically.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

My Personal 3rd Memorial Project

As most of my friends already know, my stepbrother passed away three years ago from Prostate Cancer. He was 36, and first met him when he wasn't yet three years old as my Mom and his Dad (now my Father, for all intents and purposes) were dating.

As his barely older stepbrother, I watched and witnessed much of his life half-lived, if ever fully and with a special connexion to the Earth, and how that ended with the tragedy of profound illness.

A genuine humanitarian, he was more often than not something of a defiant optimist, or at least pleasant pessimist. He was always learning and growing as his comprehension and measure of the world expanded. And all, to whom I have talked to since his passing, who may have only merely even met him, remember the strong impression he left – most would say he was a purposeful and friendly person.

As tragic as the whole saga was, there is still a lot we can do for people here and now.

In a blog before the elections, I began training for a 10K and started to raise funds for a Memorial Race in honor of my stepbrother.

But that was postponed until somewhere into Spring of 2011, and last I heard they may turn it into some other type of event (like rock climbing)?

So, as part of my goal setting exercises for 2011, I found a solution that allows me to continue the physical training I need to work on for my short, mid, and long-term goals, and continues to raise funds and awareness for ZERO and all the good work they are doing to combat Prostate Cancer.

Here it is:

I have, as I write this, on the third anniversary of my stepbrother’s passing, the goal of raising another $240 by year's end, and that would make an even $500 for this year; then I would like to try and raise another $2000 through to April 2nd, 2011, when I plan on running (either a 10K or half-marathon) trail race; and finally my tentative goal is to be fit enough to run a trail marathon for mid-September – and complete this fund-raising project for ZERO by raising a final $2500 – a Total of $5000 in one year!

I know with your help I can do it, but for me the important thing was to find an activity (trail running) that I am enjoying and make goals that met those needs, too.

I then have the privilege to know my getting healthy has not only purpose, but that everyone who has already chipped (and who will chip) in is part of my Team!

Thank you very much for your support, and Happy Holidays!!


-DONATE NOW-

Saturday, November 13, 2010

New Tax Code

I really dont want to wade into the debate regarding the trial balloon, yet, but will say:

Close, but no cigar.

At least they didn't try to "please all the people all the time," and had political wisdom to understand that the recommendations wouldn't survive the congressional bile movements.

And I like they are starting down the road towards simplification, but some Tax deductions may be necessary.

That leads me to my only point;

They seem to forget that taxes, and the Relief therefrom, are the way to incentivize the citizenry and business alike.

Subsidies, tax breaks, and even certain "credit" type programs between the government and the citizens they propose to collect and protect (not be too cynical) from, can be made clear to create our future economy and growth from this recessionary hangover.

Ideas?

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Learning from 19

Well, I am disappointed that Prop 19 didn't pass, but my eyes are opened up to where things stand.

I am also disappointed that the opposition created no effort at a cogent rhetorical argument against -- everything I heard, saw, or read was an appeal to emotion (mostly Fear) at the end of the day. No real debate of logic or reason.


What then would it take to be so reasonable as to shut out the opposition entirely:


Firstly, the measure failed in all the major growing areas! Also it failed in LA and SD, where I sense that had the Proposition somehow not stepped on fewer toes, then this may have passed without the support of the growers.

In his article, John Walker points out that exit polling found 30% of "NO" voters supported legalization-- just not 19!

That would suggest that a simple ballot proposal which only focused on the idea of making legal cannabis (in all its forms, including industrial) will pass.

Next, the simple folk wisdom that at the end of the day Prop 19 was a proposal to tax people, and I feel old when I think back to all the very good ideas I have seen, or helped put onto ballots, and even voted on, that dont pass for one basic fact-- the idea to raise taxes is a bad starting position.

Dont get me wrong, Prop 19 was well past deficit neutral, but it certainly appears that the 60-40 rule (when if you propose a tax it has the default position, regardless of issue, of being down 20%-- so to vote in a tax you need a virtual super-majority of enthusiasm, just to get to 51%!) was in full effect here.

So, then that suggests we need to legalize cannabis without creating taxes through referendum.

Finally, at the end of the day, it is certain that those people who operate directly or indirectly with the less than legal aspects of the current #1 Cash Crop, were overwhelmingly against the proposition for a wide range of hallucinations: market prices would drop (making this less profitable); medical marijuana laws would be hampered (which it wouldn't, but for certain operators the same issue of profitability would have potentially come into play); and claims of being poorly crafted (which would not have been as much of an issue because Ammiano would have reintroduced Bill to Legalize, Tax Marijuana, and thus harmonized and cleaned up any outstanding or unclear issues) seems to have been code for "let's not kill the goose laying golden eggs."

To summarize, the initiative that will pass sooner than later, must (a) be simple, clear, and complete; (b) should not prohibit, nor prescribe any taxes or fees; and (c) must be supported by the over ~60% of eligible voters who actually support an end of prohibition-- growers, suppliers, medical marijuana-ists, law enforcement, unions, churches, civic organizations, and maybe even another party (besides the Libertarians) that fully backs the initiative.


To whit the simplest proposal available for every state in every election year until prohibition is ended:

Shall Cannabis, its cultivation, harvest, products, by-products, use, sale, and distribution remain illegal?



Full text of the initiative;

A yes vote shall change nothing.

A no vote shall render all state and local laws against Cannabis void. If so voided, then the people will by force of this vote recommend the matter to state and local governments to establish regulation, tax, and control.



That simple, really.

I think the strategists, movers and shakers are well to get something as simple as this proposal onto a couple of 2011 ballots (maybe CA?).

If this issue can get onto the 2012 ballot in say a dozen or two of the major states where the movement is strong (WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MT, NE, MN, MS, OH, NC, NY, ME, HI, et. al.), then I imagine there will be an end of prohibition-- doesn't matter if it's 2 months, two years or two decades later-- we are very close to the beginning of the end of prohibition.

This strategy is a simple existentialist dilemma, which is designed only to jeopordize the continuation of Prohibition.


Finally, as I may not write another pro-Hemp article for fifteen days, months, or maybe another 15 years (hopefully not), I would like to re-iterate and respond to the question of why I support legalization:

Our founders had declared that the innate disposition of the character of the American Citizen is a free person who reserves and is granted by the Almighty an inherent right to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of happiness. Further, the right to privacy is implied within the bounds of social order and safety of the state.

To have something, a plant, literally something that can grow as a weed, a volunteer, that has been misrepresented as in the same category as Heroine, when in fact it is less harmful than Alcohol, and has outstanding benefit to the industry and health of humanity, then as stewards of this little blue marble, we earthlings, must make free that plant, animal, or being. This is the ethical implication.

To arrest people for an activity that human beings have engaged in since the dawn of history itself is madness. This the moral implication.

The definition of Liberty may be argued in massive volumes, but put simply: "the right of the individual to live and pursue happiness within lawful means without infringing upon an other's liberties, nor antagonism towards the state."

As such, so long as we perpetuate false myths, rumors, and stories about reality itself and facts as such, we create a society of suspicious minds (to quote Elvis) that is in genuine conflict with the ideals of Freedom and a right to Pursue happiness.

So long as another American's reasonable expectations of ordinary individual Liberties are being infringed upon, then this implicates us each and all as fellow citizens to understand that some element from our own choices in life may be also similarly put asunder arbitrarily and capriciously by the government. This is the philosophical argument.

And finally, like any good red-blooded capitalist from America, the most important issue is that of making dark markets bright, fair, and regulated places, and spreading the benefits of what is basically a TRILLION DOLLAR industry back unto the populace from whence its also is gainful of those basic services taxpayers provided for these outlaws (yes, as in "when freedom is Outlawed, then only Outlaws will be free!") to be benefitted from the roads, services, and infrastructure whereby the goose may so continue to lay golden eggs, and all of us are granted a right to have geese! Revenues gained by the States and Municipalities from all the new profits would have probably exceeded estimates over time.

***

California just missed a multi-billion dollar chance at a major fifteen to twenty year first-mover advantage!

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

A New FHA for Consumer Credit: Deficit Neutral and No New Taxes Required

QUALIFIED FEDERAL CONSUMER LOAN PROGRAM PROPOSAL
(CLP) 1-50K

Premiss. In today’s economic reality debt is an admissable “sin,” that is not only permitted, rather it is encouraged on the whole by church and state, so simply we are told to spend, buy, and consume... and this we do.

Debt is a modern reality for every individual, family, and even local government!

As such, we must see that an eighteen year old today looking to become a “college educated,” independent person must then be admittting to entree of no less than $50,000.00 of debt ceiling in a very humble estimate of “standard,” education.

If we are expected to have an “average” college level of training, and earn a “reasonable” salary, then we should pretty much be planning with debt as a reality, not an “escape, or emergency.”

By dealing with debtor’s thinking only in crisis type situation we create and engage in unrealistic, non-methodological, and, often, rash decisions and decision making processes.

This applies to the emblematic purchases, such as mementos, and translates all the way through to extraordinary purchases (home, auto, business, etc.).

So, even college educated, especially the most recently graduated, speaking as the last ‘wave’ (or two) of persons graduated in a similarly desperate Employment Situation, I was similarly disappointed for many reasons (1995, not being the best day to enter into the “economy,” laden with debt loads that at this vantage seem simple and easy) after graduating college. See Affordability.



Imagining a Consumer Loan Program. The image of a pup-tent... Four tent-pegs and a tent post (or two):


Peg One. Using “Sallie Mae-style Rules,” herein referred to as the 1-50K (that’s one dash fifty kay), would require the first fifty thousand in debt of any individual American Consumer to be treated with the forbearance, interest rate restrictions, and fair regulation and rules treatment, similar to if it was a student loan.

The proposal here may potentially include minor Consumer Loan Protection adjustments and improvements to the Sallie Mae Rules, but it does not and should not affect the actual Sallie Mae Program.

A new entity, or possibly branch or division of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is proposed to be sponsored by the government for these purposes, as it relates to individual debt;

(A) Government Guarantee to it’s citizens (for that first $50,000)

(B) Regulate the micro-loan ($1 to $50,000 dollars US) markets, and to a lesser extent simplify the small business lending process ($50,001 to $250,000 dollars US) for micro (under $250,000) business loans

(C) Work with existing regulatory and oversight bodies to ensure consumer protections

(D) Independent oversight to expand recommendations for counsel with various regulatory and economic agencies


Government backing will create a secondary market to resell pools of bonds like Sallie, Freddy and Fannie. In this recommendation, we strongly urge the oversight of regulations and the simplicity and transparency of rules, and suggest this could become a means for clarifying, and making positive change in the bond and securities markets, extant.

Micro-loans, those under fifty-thousand dollars, to individuals, as secured by real property, tangible property, or without security are all considered equivalent in this regard, and refer to those US citizens to whom there is such indebtedness, often above and beyond just this loan amount.

I imagine that if this program and set of reforms were so implemented, by having no required loan minimums, we may expect this provision would create a swarm of micro credit availability and lending programs.

Working in concert with existing laws agencies and institutions, new modified and streamlined rules would allow for a massive wave of refinancing of consumer debt.

In some cases, individual credit may be extended.

This proposal amounts to a non-bankruptcy proposal to the American citizen, and an admission by it’s leaders’ that the economic policies for the last decades have not (i) improved affordability, (ii) fully redressed income or prosperity gaps, nor (iii) have fully redressed income discrimination or dispairities.

Debt is unfortunately inevitable, and we (apparently continue to) follow the example of our leaders.


Peg Two. Consumer Rights, Responsibilities, and Limitations

(A) Interest. Your interest rate may not be usurious. Rates are here proposed to have a regulated minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 7.5%.

(B) Credit. Your “credit rating” can be calculated by a monkey. Five percentage points between 2.5 and 7.5 percent, create five categories of credit-worthiness:

a. Real Estate Attached and Full Documentation (Only)
b. Tangible Property Attached and Full Documentation
c. Tangible Property Attached and Low Documentation
d. Signature Only and Full Documentation
e. Signature Only and Low Documentation

(C) Limits. Your Loan Limit will be one factor where affordability and litmus tests can come into play. (It’s a government-backed loan, not a guarantee that someone will lend.)

(D) Tax Deduction. Any Interest paid on these loans is a write-off, so long as the item purchased isn’t also being depreciated in the tax year interest is written off.

(E) Business. Aside from a shot in the arm with refreshed credit sources, and credit availability, (S, SE, Sole Proprietorship, and 1099) small businesses and contractors will get an additional allowance of benefit in their own category, and these three elements of credit availability and liquidity combined should act as a serious stimulus for Main Street.

(F) Families. Any individual who claims any (one or more) dependant will automatically qualify for an additional $5000.00 credit limit.

(G) Responsibility. Although any Individual or business may refinance the first amount of debt ant any time, without pre-payment penalties, the debt may only be paid-off, and cannot be discharged through Bankruptcy.


Central Tent Pole. Insurance.

In a counter-balance to the risk of “no BK,” or ‘bankruptcies,’ to the consumer there is, aside from the potential for a secondary market in the government backed securities, another mitigating factor to the macro investors, as well as the creditors themselves.

There needs to be a tent pole in place that assures there is a sound investment proposal, otherwise this becomes a government-propped scheme, as opposed to a government operated trust on behalf of the Consumer.

Although no “insurance requirement” is here recommended to be used as a factor for making any one loan, an “insurance component,” that would be available to be opted in to any loan at any time, and in accordance with Federal and State rules, that allows for the expense of servicing to cover the costs of an insurance premium that benefits the Debt-Holder.

These policies do not have to be that simple, but they should follow some rules of the road, and is here recommended can not add to the expense of having taken the loan.

First off, according to this recommendation, like the loans have no pre-payment penalties, these insurance policies can be bought back by the consumer. After a debt is satisfied, the Debt Holder, must offer the consumer a fair right to redeem the Policy being held on his or her life.

Further, that right (1. to satisfy the debt, and 2. to retain the benefit of policy) is best if it also transfers to one’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free, and no undue delay may be created by the Debt Holder.

Finally, a Debt Holder will be required to follow certain time periods that describe normal and requisite response times from Consumer to retrieve such a benefit.

However, in the event of a default, or the death of any consumer, after following procedure in concert with appropriate notification, waiting and response times, the Debt Holder may be considered in first position to discharge all costs against the benefits of any policy so entrusted, before transferring any fully accounted and audited remainder to the Consumer’s legatees, heirs, and/or estate tax free.

By including this insurance component with the government backed facility, (A) we have a secondary guarantee to have any consumer debt satisfied, (B) we have mitigated risk, so justifying the limits on interest rates and fees.

As Mortgage Insurance does for FHA Loans, so for the Debentures and Debts this private Life insurance market will act to mitigate risks posed by individual Consumers acting as borrowers, and secondarily will have the collective benefit of mitigating risks of recoupment of principle. Overall, this should be very attractive to investors, particularly if these debentures remain dollar denominated.


Peg Three. Resultant Savings.

If any of this remains unclear, for whatever reason, just do some basic research and consumer financial education and find out the difference between a typical credit card loan = a negatively amortized revolving loan with fees and rates between 6.99 and 29.99%, and the proposal here to make a flat rate of forbearable interest, fee restrictions, and a rate range from 2.50 and 7.50%-- this will save the average American family $1152 per year!
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Just three ideas and a comment, from what would certainly be an eventual plethora as a result of these recommendations, of ways to improve the Consumer outcome in dealing with Affordability and Debenture, as a net benefit from these rule ideas, for this peg of the tent that may all be simultaneously executed:

(A) In Loan Work-outs, refinances, and/or other incentivized restructuring programs, a tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs [see Health Savings Account]) may be set up on behalf of the Consumer as a “Learning to Save,” qualification for any business that would so seek to be qualified. That tax free account would eventually revert to the Consumer, after all debts have been satisfied. Lawyers, insurance Agents, Brokers, as well as Credit Counselors, Not for Profit Debt Agencies, et. al. would be ideal candidates to assist in this program by becoming tested, qualified and bonded as a credentialed, licensed and recognized Trustee.

(B) In consumer credit devices, a similar tax-free savings account (under rules similar to the HSAs) may be set up as an incentive to qualify for lower interest rates (still have to be between 2.5 and 7.5% however), and may also with certain restrictions be set up as an overdraft protection mechanism.

(C) After a debt has been satisfied, any remainder due the consumer, with or without any insurance component(s), may be set into a new or existing tax-free savings account.

(D) Comment: Creditors are here recommended to be fully compliant as Trustees and meet additional requirements to participate in housing the principle sums for individual Consumers' Savings Trusteeship accounts that qualify for the FDIC sponsored savings program(s), preferable to local banks, Credit Unions, and Bonded Agents already insured by FDIC.


Peg Four. Business.

Loan Limits here proposed: for individual are $1 ~ $45,000 and then an additional $5,000 if you claim any dependant.

If you file Jointly, then as a couple your combined maximum limit for tax-deductable interest payments on qualified consumer loans is $90,000 and then an additional $5,000 for your first, and second $5,000 if you claim any dependants numbering 2 or above.

If you file as a Sole Proprietor, SE, S-Corp, or 1099, then under additional rules you may apply for “SBA Rules,” or 51-250K (that’s fifty-one dash two-hundred fifty kay [as in loan limits from $51 ~ 250 thousands]), which only should have in common with SBA Loans (1) they’re for Business Purposes, and (2) the government acts as backer of last resort.


Otherwise, only a Board of Advisors role is recommended by this proposal to be held something like at an annual meeting between this Consumer Loan Program (CLP) and the Small Business Administration to coordinate and harmonize lending rules would seem to be potentially necessary.

Same Interest Rate Limits as the first tent peg.

Same 5 credit categories as the first tent peg.

Same tax deduction, same everything, except (i.) loan limits go higher (up to $250,000), but may be slightly more restrictive, and (ii.) may potentially have pre-payment penalties, or other restrictions.

Cash flow of the business, credit worthiness, and net worth should all come into play, but ideally not be so inflexible as to stifle our nations Entrepreneurs from getting a second, third, or even fourth chance at success, the pursuit of happiness, and creation of Jobs!


Conclusion to this proposal. Imaging Purpose; The Second Tent Pole.

The government must act as debtor of last resort in order to encourage the Lending Institutions, and the Financial Industry in general, to effectuate a new game plan, which better enables and ennobles our American Citizenry—A Right to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness—all three things that Lending can do when capital is properly employed.

This proposal is intended to be tax neutral, and highly stimulative to the economy.

Finally, I suggest a slogan to this Agency, Consumer Loan Program, or what-have you, and it reads simply:

Indifference and Forbearance


To whit a philosophy:

This agency in its oversight shall be indifferent to the “whom,” and focus only on the ‘what and how’ in order to protect the consumer, detect fraud and abuse, and foster equal lending practices at the micro-Business and individual Consumer levels.

The objective of this agency is to promote the free flow of capital investment to the farthest reaches of our economy.

Policy and procedure are the foundation, Rule of Law the building, and the marketplace of American Citizens shall be the people whom would so enjoin to make Consumer Loans.

This agency shall preserve the mission to forbear, for the Government must lead by example, and that purpose is: (i) a tolerant and quiet strength with efficiency in motion, (ii) an unyielding belief in Americans as a group and as individuals, (iii) and straightforwardness of purpose.

To bring to bear the proper practices available to the Consumer on the economy.

And, to create opportunities for the American Citizenry in their pursuits of Life, Liberty and happiness.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Remember 1994

We in CA are on the verge of a historical change where the ethically and economically unsound National stance on Hemp may soon begin its final chapter. I would like to offer a compare/contrast for those who are seeking to #Pass19:

I volunteered for Initiative 622 in Washington State in 1994 mostly giving the campaign free access to K.A.O.S. shows I was involved in, and in composing OpEds for broadcast and publication (almost entirely in the CPJ [Cooper Point Journal]).

I tried to look up last night what the final vote count was, but I just recall we got hammered. So, what, do I recall, happened (or more accurately what went wrong);

(1) Message. 622 focused on I. Industrial, II. Medicinal, and III. Recreational usage all being simultaneously legal. This was before CA landmark 1996 Prop 216 passed. It was too much too soon for such an "omni" approach, but now we have seen that for over 14 years Medicinal Cannabis has been legal-- society continues unharmed, if not improved.

(2) Organization. WA 622 had no real backers in the legitimate world. Mostly individuals making a good effort (and arguably laying the ground work as the frontlinesmen and women for CA 216) in organized chaos, where the adjective "organized" is, from what I witnessed, generous. On the contrary, Prop 19 seems to be enjoying major support from Labor, Law Enforcement, Religious, and other "real world" groups.

(3) Backing. 622 was social science at the state capitol. 19 was one of three major ideas from the leading groups with over 16 years of experience, 14 years of success, and better than a dozen years of profits from the result of that success! Although there are small contributers, having Lee's Oaksterdam as a backstop (as opposed to the NORML or Herrer initiatives that didn't gather enough signatures, but could have also conceivably had the same effect phenomenally) is very important!

(4) Continuity. 622 was like the Zen koan, "when a tree falls in the forest does it make a sound?" There was no real community of beneficiaries. There were drug dealers and users, and that was all the opposition had to point out. And they won. Now, in CA with Prop 19, there is a network of patients, lawyers, activists, industrialists, not to mention local and state government(s) who have seen the benefits of this nascent industry ready to burgeon, blossom, and recover from it's manufactured retardation by almost seventy years of criminalization.

(5) Timing. Both the major parties are showing up this election year as moral debtors: Republicans are asking us to take them back, even though almost none of what they propose is any different from how we got into this economic situation; and the Democrats are typically diffusive and lackluster in handling major issues-- gradual change we can eventually expect technical results from (as opposed to "change we can believe in"). Our state is leading the nation, but unfortunately this time it's in disastrous budgetary management.

Again, nationally, by continuing unsound Bushian fiscal policy, Democrats are arguing for a ~$3T unfunded tax break, while the Republicans are arguing for a ~$4T unfunded tax break by extending the previously unfunded tax breaks instituted during the Republican control of House, Senate and Executive. Both fiddling as Rome burns, and both, as usual, talking not listening to each other to fashion COMPROMISE.

Our state can go from worst to first, regardless of what Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumb do in DC, by reversing the effects of the originally state led ban on hemp. It was state led in 1931, so let it be state led again in 2010! There is no constitutional argument for or against the ban. As it stands today, the US Government continues to outlaw a multi-trillion dollar industry that would lead to major solutions for our current major problems!


WHAT HASN'T CHANGED

FARMS. Hemp will allow under-utilized and marginal farmlands to be productive without major water demands, giving the small farmer a fighting chance.

FAMILIES. By eliminating criminality, arbitrary and capricious arrests of predominantly minorities will become that much less prevalent; Our heroic enforcement workers can focus on legitimate threats that undermine our collective safety; Our state can restore funding for social netting that has all but vanished; and people will be put back to work!

JOBS. I talked to one Union official off the record, and their number is ~40,000 Union jobs within a year. I had speculated with the entire Hemp Industry coming back to life the number to be ~100,000, and either way this tracks with the rule of thumb that for every 1 Union job another ~1.5 are eventually created. No one has a crystal ball on this one, but in effect California should enjoy a major first mover advantage when Prop 19 passes!

TAXES. Cities that allow Industrial Hemp and Recreation Sales will gain, Counties that create taxes and regulations will gain, and the State non-partisan Legislative Analyst's Office has estimated an annual tax boon of ~$1.4BB for our bankrupted state. This is a sorely needed dose of the cure.

REGULATION. By creating rules and regulations, we will enable all citizens greater liberty, by creating avenues of access. Further, for those of us who feel that Business needs clear and simple rules, we can only hope that our input is asked for at the appropriate juncture. Regardless, by bringing into light the dark economy, which is presently CAs #1 crop, we can expect greater civility-- a nice way of saying the International Drug Cartels will have to line up behind citizens to get licenses, permits, and then pay proper taxes, like the rest of us!

Let's be clear: (a) No one is saying people under 21 should have access. As it is, they already have as good or better access to the recreational use (with no clear comprehension of the commercial uses) of cannabis than to alcohol. (b) No one is saying it is okay to be under the influence of cannabis and work, drive, or operate heavy machinery. Again, think of how we tax and regulate alcohol. (c) Although there is some confusion by medicinal users on this issue, no one will be able to bring the provisions of 215 under the taxation or restrictions imposed onto non-medicinal users by the passing of 19.

I await proper logical rebuttal, but have not heard one for over 16 years!

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Status Update

I just wanted to be open and accountable to the public about where I am in my various writing projects:

Metaeconomics; took it off market for some re-diting, simplifications, expanded and comparative definitions, and reindexing with glossary. No set deadline.

Eventology Study; about 3/5ths done, but need to create more space for myself to complete the more poetical aspects. Hope to finish by next year's end.

Semi-autobiographical fiction about childhood; thought I was about 1/3 done, but still searching for the structural edits-- I think I may chop off a bunch of this second and first draft... feels years away still.

Crime novel; stuck in research is the simplest way to say that. Beyond which am amazed at our morally gray world, where truth is stranger than fiction. Always said this was gonna take four to six years at least... make it eight!

New historical fiction idea was crystallized for a vehicle and I have developed a very promising first draft outline. Wont be talking too much about this one for quite a while, but am excited to have finally found a vehicle for something I have been pondering... forever?

New economics book regarding "micro-economics," from about a 177 degree viewpoint of the meta-economics text. Should be eminently more readable and relevant... I hope!!

Anyways, just wanted to say thank you to those of my friends (dare I call them fans?) who have not only been reading my work, but been giving me feedback... and seriously amazed at the overall positive scope. That said, if anyone has indeed read my work, and was holding back comments for me that weren't entirely positive-- seriously, please (a) let me know you even have read the work, and (b) your true thoughts and responses. It's the only way I will get better as a writer and communicator!!!

THANK YOU.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

The Shame of Big Oil

Here is the rhetorical question: Imagine if you will the Blob from the 1950's movie of the same title, and it was sweeping the streets removing only the gas stations, refineries, offices, and production facilities of every oil company that existed in five states.

How much money would the oil industry collectively spend to stop the Blob? How fast would that private action (without any help [or probably permission] from the Government-at-large) be done?

Now, if instead of "blob," we read massive uncontrolled oil gusher; we replace the streets with the Gulf of Mexico; and instead of oil companies we read: every fisherman, much of the tourism, a lot of recreational dollars, and the future health of millions of people-- not to mention the immense and incalculable devastation to our aquatic creatures and ecosystems-- we must wonder.

Is it not in every oil companies interest to assist in solving this problem ASAP so as to be able to have opportunity at future access to public waters?

As for BP: It was different to hear within the first days of this tragedy, that BP will honor all reasonable economic claims. That said, sending claimants out to help with the clean up and containment without proper safety (equipment, training, resources, etc.) is in some ways worse, because then they shall have several claims as a class action: (1) economic, and (2) health.

It seems there will probably be many levels of costs for BP, Halliburton, et. al.: (A) immediate, (B) long-term, (C) Criminal claims, (D) Civil penalties, and (E) future opportunity costs.

I also want to make the statement that this situation is not as advertised or spun, "Obama's Katrina." Bush got a four day notice, and if memory serves did nothing for an additional four or so days. When he did it was to reassure people, as opposed to acknowledge the tragedy. That tin ear populism was what created (along with catch phrases like, "heckuva job Brownie,") the sink hole of political legitimacy for Bush.

Pubs and haters praying for this to suddenly be Obama's Katrina are going with the old 'argumentum ad naseum,' again, but more startling is their admission that in this (and on several other issues like the economy) matter their last leader with a fully stacked Pub Congress flubbed on issue after issue. I think with the foot falling and the Tea Parties it is clear that the Pubs havent gotten out of circular firing squad formation quite yet....

This situation was precipitated by the Bushies, and the only problem I have with Obama (Administration) is that they did not catch the paper tiger collusion between MMS and Big Oil before it came to this.

So, now as far as I am concerned, we the people must ask the oil companies to verify and prove the statements they made in writing to our governmental bodies in order to acquire permits. If they claim this situation happens only once every 30 years, then they must show they have what it takes to either improve techniques and/or possess the technological wherewithal to mitigate even the slightest damage to our public lands and natural resources.

As far as I am concerned, even the fishermen are missing the bigger picture: they should not just ask for a years wages, or another job... What about charging wholesale prices for every pound of shrimp, dolphins, fish, crabs, clams, crawdads, mollusk, etc. that has been "eaten" by this blob; and what about all the future costs for the billions of creatures that have been aborted in this man made catastrophe facilitated by a chain of fools.

Finally, it is hard to write this knowing I am on track to have to fill up at the gas station in about a week. We are all conspirators at some level of this tragedy, but imagine how much this will cost the tax payers total. It is probably a very incalculable number like say $208,972,340,000.00, just to pick one out of the hat. We have dozens of these rigs out there. If we would just spend that $208,972,340,000.00 x 12 to facilitate electric cars, improved clean technology, solar, and wind, then would we not be in this mess when the next one is due in thirty years or less?

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Strategy, Tactics, and Terrorism

I will make this brief.

The idea that we can stop terrorists who seem to be coming in via London, Amsterdam, or other foreign ports into America to set off havoc (and bombs) by essentially removing civil liberties here at home beggars belief.

A phrase that would have been heresy just several years ago, but is now on the TV-machine a lot is "security theater."

Now in my mind this would be the staging area for a secure zone, but in fact means staging an act which is designed to lend the appearance of greater safety.

We still haven't completely implemented the work of the bipartisan 9-11 Commission, Republicans continue to play petty politics by not conferring a TSA Chief, and meanwhile New safety measures appear arbitrary... I mean here.

The simple Strategical guidance I would offer is simple: We must shift from a Reactionary Defense to a Proactive Defense; We must shift from a Nation-State Invasion Model to a Sectarian Counter-terror Model.

Easier said than done!

That said, Proactive Defense looks more like what the British accomplished in 2005 with the liquid bombers; or the French have been dealing with since Algerian Independence in 1962. A lot of very advanced police work!

Our current reactionary basis has us looking at areas where the opponents last struck. As they say in investing, "past performance does not guarantee future results." This is backwards hindsight mentality.

The balance is to get international cooperation on improved intelligence techniques that somehow maintains reasonable personal privacy and functional civil liberties.

As for our wholesale invasion of places where terrorists live, well that is as delusional as the idea that Terrorists will somehow destroy the Freedom we enjoy in the West.

Our freedoms, our wealth, and our model of social change is not something that people plan on giving up on, and like any good product or service-- it is in high demand!

Ours is not a natural state of governance, but a logical outcrop as a result from hard earned lessons and wars of the past. Ours is the best model, for now, and people basically like Freedom, Liberty and Justice. So the terrorists can't expect random acts of havoc to remove or somehow dethrone this truth.

On the other hand there are dissenters and at the harshest end bad actors, those who would commit terrorist acts, probably in any major nation-state in the world. It becomes a question of what is aspirational and what is operational as to what threats are indeed real to human safety and liberty.

So, to invade yet another country to ensure freedom and democracy is so 20th century, and a very proven failed idea from not just a budgetary, but a benefit-cost, point of view.

Like NASA, our defense and offense needs to get more focused, accurate, and scale appropriate to live within their means.